Polls are now starting to show what many expected after Wednesday's presidential debate: a bounce for Mitt Romney. Instant polls and commentator consensus (even among many Democrats!) gave Romney a convincing win in the debate. Now the "horse race" polls are starting to show the impact, with Romney appearing to make solid gains in interviews conducted after voters had a chance to process the debate and its aftermath.
Research shows that the analysis of the debate can have as much impact as the debate itself, as "gaffes" and "body language" and the like are sometimes micro-analyzed to the point of absurdity. But it can also matter what from the debate soaks into popular culture (late-night comedians, drive-time radio jocks, social media, etc.).
Sometimes the reaction changes the viewers' initial impressions (Gerald Ford made a comment in 1976 about "Soviet domination of Eastern Europe" that barely made a ripple in viewers' reactions at the time, but its importance grew from the reaction following the debate). But when the fallout reinforces what the voters think they saw at the time, it can have a cumulative effect. In this case, it was pretty much all negative for the president.
But how will the debate fallout affect Senate races?
