Lessons From The Iowa Caucus

As predicted, the Iowa Caucus proved nothing. It gave no clarity or closure to a race that has been dogged by sideshow distractions (Mr. Trump), epic burnouts (Mr. Cain), and a backfield that just now seems to be getting the message. Romney has been the perpetual front-runner, excepting little flare-ups by Perry, Cain, and Gingrich. However, the Caucus results show no clear leader in voter approval, and is likely to continue to be fluid through the other 49 primaries. So Romney won, technically, by a mere eight votes over Santorum, who until last week barely existed on the Republican primary radar.

That said, there were some clear losers, people that have been trailing for some time and seem to now grasped it. Michelle Bachmann bowed out after touting her “contribution” to the republican race. Rick Perry promised to return to Texas and pray for guidance, which is the politically evangelical way of bowing out. Gingrich is determined to keep on, keeping on, primarily since his campaign has been part book tour anyway.

Ron Paul, who finished third and, as he said, received one of three tickets to move on in the race, is unlikely to end up the party’s nominee, but his supporters and his candidacy is sustaining the Tea Party’s place in the conversation. He said he was “satisfied” with his third place finish, and like Romney, has spent much more time in other early voting states, which shows a willingness to stick with the race for the long-haul.

Santorum has earned the distinction of “more Christian candidate”, and as a result hit a chord with the largely evangelical Republican votership in Iowa. However, poll numbers in New Hampshire put him at a significant distance behind Romney, even Paul. The likelihood that the next few primaries will continue to whittle away candidates is uncertain. Gingrich is likely to continue on in the campaign, hoping for another surge and, if not, continuing to pitch him and his wife’s published works. Santorum may be riding a temporary wave of religiously-fueled popularity, but as we’ve seen with previous candidates, his ability to sustain that momentum is unlikely.

Though I don’t like to predict this early, I think it’s likely that Republican voters will be looking at Romney, Paul, and Gingrich as the three Republicans vying for the nomination this year. Romney because he’ll likely get it, Paul because he has a staunch base of supporters and his message is popular, and Gingrich because he just won’t go away. Look for Romney supporters to start whittling away at him in negative attack ads, but Romney is more likely to devote his attention to Obama, and the general election.