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=== The Parts of the Sum, Dept. === J.J. Putz is a super-closer that I don't especially trust, and who has moderate health questions going forward. But he did throw fine in late 2008, and he will be one of the top five or so closers drafted in a fantasy league, and he can only weep and gnash his teeth over B.J. Ryan's contract. I guess that nobody illustrates the problem with VORP/$ analysis better than somebody like Putz: ask J.P. Ricciardi if B.J. Ryan's value is symbolized by the characters "+2 Wins". Any numerical system that tells you Franklin Gutierrez, or Mike Cameron, or Reggie Sanders, is equal in value to a super-closer? is doing us a lot more harm than good. A quality #4 outfielder is worth a super-closer? How many GM's are going to agree with you that Franklin Gutierrez and J.J. Putz are a fair straight-up swap? Is that "Dr D vs the other blogs," or is that "All of baseball vs. the BP/VORP purists"? Franklin Gutierrez = J.J. Putz? Really?! Be aware of the WARP and VORP-style analyses, but also be aware of how 3-dimensional baseball is.  Be aware that the top 25 slots in a baseball franchise are lock-tumblers that move in and out constantly, and that have 25 other ML-ready lock-tumblers behind them. ............. Endy Chavez and Jeremy Reed cancel out: they're defensive specialists in the OF. In this case, they even share offensive similarities. .............. Sean Green is of such little consequence to this mainframe, that he gets skipped. Others liked him; for us he's a complete non-issue. ............. Franklin Gutierrez? Think Mike Cameron, if things break right for him. He could become a star, in the 10% best-case scenario. He could go backwards and be a true #4 OF, in the 40% worst-case scenario. For the M's, next year, he's Mike Cameron. The good news is that, although RH like Cammy, Gutierrez doesn't hit fly balls. So that could cut down the grue that Safeco sloshes all over his bat. Some amigos like defense a LOT!! more than jemanji does. :- ) Defense is half your value; we read it on the net. Okay, time for the time-warp game, you with the Belangers and me with the Ruths. Should be a thrilla. Defense is fine after you've done what matters: pitch and hit. Sure, you show me the team with the worst (effective) DER in baseball, and I'll show you an argument for defense. But show me a team with the most pitching BB's in baseball, and I'll make you think that throwing strikes is all there is to the game, too... Gutierrez is the anti-DOV player. That said, if he improves with the bat, and if he plays when flyballers are on the mound, I'll concede that he could be part of a good team, as Cammy was in 2000 and 2001. It took a perfect storm for Mike Cameron to make an impact on a 100-win team in Safeco Field. It'll take the same here. The storm will have to include Gutierrez stepping up with the bat. (He easily could.) ............ Jason Vargas? One of the most extreme flyball pitchers in organized baseball, and one of the most extreme fastball-only pitchers in baseball, and throws 88-89 mph lefthanded. Remind you of anybody? Let's Wash our hands of this good amigo before he comes over to the AL. .............. RHP Maikel Cleto, as far as I can tell, is a teenaged* Latin who throws very, very hard. Cool minor leaguer to grab. ............... OF Ezekiel Carrera is, as far as I can tell, a little speed burner about whom not much else is remarkable. Take two Slim-Fast shakes and call me in four years, when he's fighting for a backup spot in Seattle. ................ Mike Carp is the interesting player in the deal, a strong lefty who tries to control the strike zone. Certainly there is no harm in stocking the org with talented BB+HR lefty hitters; you do that, and sooner or later you'll hit paydirt. I don't see him as a Grade A prospect, but he's performed comparably to (say) Jeff Clement at the same age. Carp's a nice young prospect, and you have to love that Mr. Z is being consistent here (with the Branyan-type LH stockup). For the record, let's cancel him against Valbeuna in terms of package value. .................. RHP Aaron Heilman? Think Brandon Morrow minus 15%. Former mega-prospect, hyped up huge by the NY media, and as is typical, these guys draw a lot of bitterness when they don't become Doc Gooden right away. Wayyyyyyy too early to write the guy off as a starter. Pitchers will make mechanical changes, develop pitches, will leap plateaus. Heilman has, in fact, had several quality seasons out of the 'pen, and seems to provide the teeter-totter twin to Morrow: if one doesn't start, presumably the other will. ............... The key, and disconcerting, thought in all of this? That Aaron Heilman is the version of J.J. Putz that had not yet been introduced to the split. You're getting back ... what? In return for that downgrade?