Need info on getting married

Submitted by airforcetalk on 12/17/08 6:03am
I know someone in the air force who is marrying another person in the airforce just so they won't go to another base across seas. i want to know if you get married can you still be transfered witout your spouse? i feel like they are not doing things fairly. if anyone has the answer please let me know

GETTING MORE THAN 60 PER MONTH?

Submitted by mous on 12/17/08 5:32am
60 PER MONTH IS JUST A TEASE ON MY BACK PAIN-ANY SUGGESTION?

1988 Honda Prelude SI

Submitted by mous on 12/17/08 5:02am
i am having a problem with my prelude not starting after it has been running. When I have been driving then have to stop and turn off the engine, sometimes it just wont start. It turns over but will not start. Could it be spark plug wires? or something else. ????

Cinema a la Canada #1: Lie With Me

Submitted by msarko on 12/17/08 4:22am
In 2005, Clement Virgo worked with novelist Tamara Berger to adapt her book, Lie With Me, for the screen. The film premiered at the Toronto Film Festival, but it didn't get any recognition beyond its soundtrack by Broken Social Scene. It's understandable why Lie With Me got lost in the swirl of the modern day independent film scene. Its selling points aren't exactly unique. By the middle of this decade, explicit sexual content in non-pornographic films became a fast cliche within indie circles, especially when it was used in dire arthouse pictures. The difference between Lie With Me and other films like The Brown Bunny or Ken Park is that the sex isn't really a device for shock or edge. Rather, it's the entire story. Lauren Lee Smith plays Leila, a hyper-sexual 20-something in the middle of a particularly stormy period of her life. With an apartment full of porn and a propensity for random hookups on any given night of the week, Leila looks more like an addict the further the story progresses. It's a shame that's not where the plot ends up. Rather than being a frank depiction of sex addiction, Lie With Me is often an unnecessary romantic drama about gorgeous people being passive-agressive. The object of affection in the more conventional part of the story is David, played by Eric Balfour. Leila meets David while the two of them have simultaneous sexual encounters outside of a nightclub; David with his girlfriend and Leila with some random dweeb we ought to never see again, but unfortunately do in the overwrought third act. What follows the nightclub scene is the single most beautiful moment in the entire movie. In a hazy-sunny suburban neighborhood, Leila wanders on the way to her parent's house, only to stumble upon David's truck. Once she gets his attention, a dream-like chase ensues with unexpected changes of pace and a fortunate silencing of Leila's voiceover. When the two would-be lovers stop at a playground, Leila displays a moment of exhibitionism that rockets past eroticism into a much more primal, even disturbing place. David (who acts as an audience stand-in for normal people) reacts accordingly, running away. Like a great many films, Lie With Me would work a lot better as a short, stopping after 45 minutes or less. As gorgeous as the sunny chase scene is, Virgo diminishes it by using the same device later. It's too common a problem with filmmakers to mistake sophomorism with symmetry. As for the story itself, Berger either had no idea what potential her characters had, or she wasn't brave enough to follow through. Leila makes herself miserable with her promiscuity, but she never experiences any lasting consequences for screwing over the people who care about her. Lie With Me certainly wouldn't benefit from a streak of puritanism, but that doesn't mean the happy ending we're given is any less absurd or incongruous. Lie With Me had all the potential to be the Trainspotting of sex addiction. Had it gone in that direction, I have no doubt it would be hailed as a great achievement. The story sets up an excellent parallel between the empty sexual intimacy pursued by Leila and the meaningful familial intimacy embraced by David while he takes care of his ailing father. The explicit scenes are so frequent and unflinching that desensitization soon settles in. The first half of the film sets up an intricate house of emotional cards that look like they're waiting for a fierce wind. When that disaster never comes, the result is just another tacked-on happily ever after.

song

Submitted by mous on 12/17/08 4:07am
I am needing to find out the name of this song and who sings it, its a song about a son talking about his father on how he was so strong, and something about unbreakable walls, can you help???

Rumor Mill, Thursday

Submitted by jemanji on 12/17/08 3:31am
COEFFICIENT OF CONFIDENCE = 0.85: as many are aware, Mark Teixeira reportedly wants to get a deal done very quickly. He wants the Orioles, but they don't want him. They have lowballed him -- yep, that's the word -- at 7 x $21M (!) and stated that they're only players if they get a hometown discount. With perhaps only 1 week to go before Teixeira decides, speculation has settled in at 8 x $24M. At least two teams, one of the Boston, have made firm offers to Tex that seriously outweigh Balmer's 7/$145. The Angels have also offered at least 8/$160M. ....... Adam Dunn would be an AWFULLY nice consolation prize. I wonder whether he isn't actually a more helpful purchase at, say, 4 x $15M. There's no particular reason that Dunn should be limited to 4 years when guys like Lee and Soriano get twice that. I wonder why people speak in terms of Dunn getting a short-term deal. If that is really the case, if Dunn is the anomalous 40-homer man who will accept a 4-year contract, he starts to look like a no-brainer. ............ COEFFICIENT OF CONFIDENCE = 0.55: Along with Dunn, the Angels have apparently identified Matty's golden boy Milton Bradley as a player they'd be happy with as a consolation prize in a Tex loss. MB's stats the last two years are absolutely stunning, and he adds defense to the equation if the M's were to look at him as the offseason lineup add. But here you're talking tooonnnnns of risk: his arc looks like it's milkshake-aided; he's a volatile personality; he's never proven the ability to play every day (contrast Dunn's 160 games a year) .... Big roll of the dice. Could easily see this guy going .267/.362/.424 (a Dodger line he had) and staying there, with a Carl Everett-type career of two MVP performances followed by a big dropoff. ... of course, MB also has the possibility of being one of the best players in the league. The Angels' rumored interest in MB has me re-thinking him. ............... COEFFICIENT OF CONFIDENCE = 0.70: The Angels are also seriously considering Manny Ramirez as a strand (along with Dunn, Bradley, and others) in the anti-Teixeira safety net. When you see "Angels are seriously considering," read that, "are probably willing to spend big money" on him. "Considering" means something different in cities that view baseball seasons as pennant races. .................. COEFFICIENT OF CONFIDENCE = 0.75: Daniel Cabrera is apparently getting offers that are much lower than Dr. D assumed they would be. On a bargain contract -- let's say 2 or 3 years x $5M, which may actually trump everything else out there (??), we've got a real chance for an Oakland-type super-bargain. Would love to see the M's jump in, sign Cabrera, and use him either (a) to close (freeing up Heilman) if that looks good in ST, or (b) as a #5 starter working with a new pitching coach. Hey, we're talking chump change if you can get a pitcher for that kind of money. Cheers, Dr D .................... http://i35.photobucket.com/albums/d184/bwk123/Autographs/DanielCabreraPo...

What would You pay Franklin Gutierrez?

Submitted by jemanji on 12/17/08 2:34am
There are many ways that amigos have ATTEMPTED to nail down "fair" salaries for players. What they have in common, usually, is a process of:
1. Figure out how many wins a player adds to his team, compared to a good AAA player. 2. Figure out how much the MLB industry pays, on average, for wins. 3. Inadvertently skip by many of the real-world complexities, such as, who would that team's *actual* replacement be for the player; position scarcity at a given moment in time; what is the effect of player X on player Y; how does the Star, Scrub, or Civic *position* the team to configure its roster towards more cheap youngsters, the difference between a team throwing in the towel in May vs fighting hard through September, etc etc. All the stuff that is routinely used by Roto champs to adjust values on the fly, that stuff is opaque to (e.g.) MORP. Nothing against the dollar valuations, but it's very important to understand that they are always only starting points, reflecting generic circumstances. 4. Figure out what this player's salary would be, if he got an average MLB payment for the number of "wins" he contributed.
This number can helpful, if it does not become dogma, in which a specific payment that varies from industry average in generic circumstances is automatically deemed brainless and suicidal. A person who actually wins roto leagues, does want to know that Erik Bedard's projected value for next year is $29. A person who actually wins roto leagues, also knows that this $29 is under generic circumstances. It has to be adjusted depending on who your keepers are, and what your roster needs are, and how fungible your bottom 8 players are, and whether you agree or disagree with the "midrange" projection. That $29 can, and does, go down to $15 or up to $50 depending on the keeper pool and its inflation, or an owner's specific roster situation. So the first caveat is: that BP or HBT or Tango dollar figure for a ballplayer's salary is ceteris paribus -- assuming absolutely generic circumstances. Don't get dogmatic with it! . === The World According to Morp, Dept. === If you subscribe to Baseball Prospectus, their PECOTA player cards will create a MORP valuation of $15.1m for Brian Roberts, based on their own WARP stat. The Wins Above RLP (WARP) stat is based on a fairly precise offensive metric, and a verrrrrrrrrry imprecise defensive metric. (55% of Roberts' value is based on BP's guess as to his defensive skill.) So if you have the hitting VORP, and you have the offense+defensive WARP, you can multiply it by BP's industry coefficient and get ... $15.1m. .................... Adam Jones, based on MORP, projects to a $14.6m "salary" in 2009 based on ... wait for it ... a .277/.332/.451 batting line. And 2.3 DWARP -- 2.3 "wins" by playing a quality center field. That "salary" goes to $16.8m in 2010 despite absolutely no PECOTA gains in hitting. Why? Salary inflation... You tell me, whether $14m is what you feel like you'd be losing if you missed out on a .277/.332/.451 (park-neutral!) batting line in CF. ...................... As you might have noticed by now, any other minor leaguer you project to hit .275/.335/.450, is going to be in the $10-14m "salary range" if a young, fast fielder. Say, Wlad Balentien or Jeff Clement.
Billy Rowell was projected to be worth $11.3m in 2008, and $16.1m in 2011, by PECOTA. Jacoby Ellsbury was projected to be worth $14.6m .... in 2007. And $13-14m the next two years, just like Jones. Carlos Gomez (yes, that Carlos Gomez) was projected to be worth $10.3m in 2007, and $12.1m in 2008.
ANY young prospect that projects to come up and hit the league average-solid, or so, and runs well in the field, is going to wind up looking like he's worth a huge amount of money. This is really just saying that an average-solid player (say, Jose Guillen) makes a lot of money these days. Where is the "replacement level player" thinking when we need it... ......................... D-O-V will again point out that a rich team like the Red Sox, Mariners, or Mets is only going to have a couple of slots for youngsters at any one time. If you've got them backed up six deep, it's hardly a loss of $10-14m to simply shift from the 1st guy in line to the 2nd. Again, the loss in the Bedard trade wasn't Adam Jones. The loss is the DELTA between Adam Jones and Wlad Balentien! ... or Jeff Clement, or Brad Wilkerson, or whoever. As it turned out, the delta between Jones and Franklin Gutierrez. .......................... Billy1 wanted to know, so what's the 21-year-old Griffey worth, under that system? The answer: about $25m. Which also points out a clear and decisive hole in the system, because two 110-OPS+ players (Jones and Gomez) are most definitely not worth one 150-OPS+ Junior. You know and I know that if you had two 21-year-olds, you'd want one 160 and one 90 kid, not two 110 guys. Yet, the two 110 guys are much more valuable per MORP, which IMHO over-estimates average-solid players. . === HBT Dept. === Hardball Times, in this article, explains their own system, which is probably a good couple steps more useful, for me. They start with the [offense+defense] metric Win Shares Above RLP*. They then apply a TYPICAL INDUSTRY COST salary multiplier to the player:
FA: $5.3m per win added Arb player: $2.5m per win added Non-arb player: practically free
So they come up with a value for Brian Roberts of, about, $21.2m for 2007. .................................. Obviously there are a lot of assumptions to sign off on: are Win Shares a precise measure of a player's value? Is that $5.3m per FA win the figure you are going to use as your own baseline -- or is it simply an industry average that applies more to the Yankees (or Devil Rays) than it does to you? . === Dr's Diagnosis Dept. === The average MLB player makes an awful lot of money these days. It's no stretch to say that a perfectly average vet of great consistency -- Jarrod Washburn, Jose Guillen, pick your player -- is a $10,000,000 player these days. Or even $12m. ....................... What the MORP and WSAB metrics are saying, when they value an Adam Jones at (say) $14m, is that they expect Jones to be an average/good player, and here's what average/good players cost. As we've argued ad nauseum, MLB teams pay for proven veteran production. They give $10m to Jarrod Washburn, and not to Cha Seung Baek, because they get a 80% chance of production, not a 40% chance. At least with hitters. And just as importantly, they get no growing pains -- no season's worth of losses during the learning curve. The key flaw in the RLP dogma is again seen. A player who might -- this year or next or the one after -- hit .275/.335/.450 --- and a player who will hit that almost for sure? Those are two different animals to the modern GM (including Beane and Epstein). With the rookie, you have (1) the chance of disaster, and (2) you have the games lost while he figures the new turbo-pitchers out. ......................... Bingo, if you trade a $380,000 Carlos Gomez or a $380,000 Billy Rowell, you've flushed $14m of opportunity to underpay, right? Yeah, unless you figure that Rowell is a prospect and that there are more prospects where he came from. Cheers, Dr D

Adam Dunn

Submitted by jemanji on 12/17/08 2:20am
Just stream-of-consciousness, not POTD. :- ) . === "Sample Size" of One Dept. === I don't know if we're going to spend the next three years using Richie Sexson as the scarecrow to keep all of those nasty FA buzzards away. But just off the top of our heads, here:

1. Adam Dunn is lefthanded. I've heard that matters in Safeco. Jack Zduriencik seems to think that is an important factor.

2. Richie Sexson was a fairly extreme groundball hitter. Adam Dunn is a fairly extreme flyball hitter. You're not talking about similar swings here. Dunn isn't a topspin guy.

3. IF Adam Dunn had exactly Richie Sexson's age-arc, he'd have three (3) great seasons followed by a dropoff. Dunn is a year younger than Sexson was, when signed.

4. It is open to question whether Sexson was demoralized, over the course of 2.5 years, by Safeco and by bad luck (remember Sexson's .210 BABIP's). The jury is out as to whether Sexson will bounce back, as Jeff Cirillo and other Safeco refugees did.

Dunn of course has many similarities to Sexson: for one thing, he's very tall. He has that in common with Frank Howard and Dave Winfield, also. But whereas Sexson was tall and lanky, Adam Dunn is about 270 lbs. You know you're not talking steroids on this dude. After you sign Dunn you could go get Hagrid for 3B, though his cap would fly off worse than Felix’. Dunn fans a good 165 times a year — but also walks 110. (Jay Buhner, in his prime, averaged 160 and 100.) Dunn up there stalking the pitcher, trying to get one pitch a game that he can get some really good radio interference on. In Earl's words, "once every 13 AB's he's doing a whale of a lot to win me a ball game." Turn that “Hit It Here” neon arrow back on, Rick. Dunn is an extreme Three True Outcomes player. The Seattle blog-o-sphere is subconsciously biased against these players: Jack Cust was a case in point. TTO's feel unreliable. They aren't, really. They control their own destinies. baseball-reference.com, using match criteria that compare favorably to PECOTA’s, came up with this set of comps for Dunn at 25 years of age: Darryl Strawberry (927) Reggie Jackson (926) * Jose Canseco (918) Troy Glaus (909) Tom Brunansky (902) Juan Gonzalez (901) Boog Powell (901) Rocky Colavito (891) Tony Conigliaro (890) Harmon Killebrew (883) * SLAP me SILLY, Padna. Nowadays, after Dunn's age-28 year, these are the comps. Here they are, with their futures from age 29 on: 
 Sim  Player              From  To Yrs   OPS+
+---++-------------------+---------+--+----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+----+---+----+
      Adam Dunn           Was not playing, is not playing, or has not yet played at this age.
 920  Darryl Strawberry   1991-1999  9  120
 906  Jose Canseco        1994-2001  8  125
 902* Harmon Killebrew    1965-1975 11  143
 895  Rocky Colavito      1963-1968  6  124
 889* Reggie Jackson      1975-1987 13  131
 867  Troy Glaus          2006-2008  3  122
 865  Tom Brunansky       1990-1994  5   97
 861  Barry Bonds         1994-2007 14  199
 859  Roger Maris         1964-1968  5  116
 859  Boog Powell         1971-1977  7  129

 859  AVERAGE             1971-1977  8  139
After you throw out Bonds and Brunansky, the other guys averaged 7 years x 135 OPS+ ... starting with Dunn's next season. What can you confidently take from this set of stats-generated comps? We'll spend a separate post on Dr. D's own rationale on Dunn comps. For now, let's just say that b-ref.com's set of comps is at least as good as the set of comps that reads "Richie Sexson." For now, let's also notice that Adam Dunn has done things that are similar to what Harmon Killebrew and Reggie Jackson did -- not things that are similar to what Chris Shelton has done. . === SMILE When You Brush Me Back, Meat === You know, there is honestly something to say about bringing the biggest men to a sports contest. … We remember a Mariner quote from the time, regarding Canseco and McGwire and Parker, and Stewart. It was Chuck Armstrong or Alvin Davis or Jeff Smulyan or somebody who said, "When you play those guys, they are intimidating. They are large men, and they can back that size up with performance." Seriously. I realize that to commentators who are not athletes, this will sound silly. But some of you have gone out to play in a slo-pitch league, or whatever, and in some game or other you looked over and the other guys looked like they should be on TV or whatever ... and right there, you started wondering whether you could win. It MATTERS. It doesn't matter as MUCH to guys playing 162 games, but there is still the "bully and customer" aspect on the human level. I'm not arguing that you should go get Adam Dunn because he's Frankenstein. I'm just saying the guy's a load. I'll go the season tickets to the Hit It Here Cafe. And bring a hard hat and safety goggles. The Mariners would be more fun than Mariner Central on July 31. BABVA, jemanji ..................... images:  http://www.vintagecardtraders.org/virtual/67topps_posters/67topps_poster...

The Real Villains are the Writers

Submitted by msarko on 12/17/08 12:57am
Once, in the far-off land of 2006, an exciting television program brimming with promise and a gigantic budget exploded into the consciousness of an entire culture. Slick visuals and palpable dramatic tension made an overworked people appreciate Monday. But then, weighed down by their immense hubris, the writers of this show squandered the loads of goodwill their original enterprise garnered them. Further compounding the disaster was a writer's strike that cut the second season short. During the long absence, promises were made concerning the quality and direction of the series as it approached its third season. So, did Volume Three of Heroes redeem the show from the absurd quagmire of Season 2? Hell no, but anyone could have told you that two months ago. The real question is not whether the show's "Villains" chronicle was good, but whether it was bad enough to keep us from watching Volume Four. After a few episodes, I had this to say during a discussion about this season of Heroes: "It's a pretty popular thing for people to give up this show, or at least say they're giving it up. But I'm gonna watch this thing until it ends, be it by its own design or by cancellation. See, you may never experience something like this again. Sure, you'll witness plenty of failures, like Do Not Disturb, but will you ever again witness a failure of such epic proportions? This is the highest budget clusterfuck in the history of entertainment, or at least it has the potential to be. The plot has been tied in so many ridiculous knots, the characters made so incomprehensible, the spirit of the show morbidly confused. I love it. Just imagine how horrible a trainwreck would be if the train didn't stop moving after it became derailed. This is what we're witnessing here. Please, everybody, keep watching this show. It can only get more stupendously stupid and thereby transcendent." Despite the above, I still remain torn. It's fun to watch a show with such high production values suck so badly in such obvious, amateurish ways. All the same, like many viewers I still hold out hope that Heroes is going to get good again. The most recent glimmer comes from some employee-shifting, namely the termination of Jesse Alexander and Jeph Loeb combined with the announcement that Bryan Fuller is being brought back into the fold. It's possible that the removal of some of the creative staff's more poisonous elements will allow Heroes to gradually return to grace, but it's gonna be a steep road. The end of Volume Three saw a number of disturbing developments, including a bankrupt co-opting of the Saw formula by one of the show's only interesting figures (Sylar) and the single most irrational character shift in the history of a series built on irrational character shifts (Nathan). So, like the cultural masochist I am, I'll be plugged into the disbelief suspension machine for Volume Four. Maybe Peter will stop being a petulant child. Maybe Mohinder will actually do something other than get beat up and manipulated. Maybe Sylar will maintain a philosophical mindset in excess of ten minutes. Also, maybe I'll inherit Russia's most successful theme park from a long-lost uncle.

Democracy is a Failure: The Craigslist Files #1

Submitted by msarko on 12/17/08 12:32am

Those of us who grew up in the United States of America have been raised on an educational curriculum that just assumes that a government by and for the people it governs is a good thing. Sure, it all sounds rosy on paper. Everybody loves freedom, happiness, being heard and being compensated. All the same, I'm pretty certain that if the founding fathers had been given five minutes with craigslist they'd have written the following letter to King George:  

Our Great and Wise Sovereign, On the occasion of His Majesty's most momentous birthday, the good and humble people of Great Britain's colonies in the New World conspired to compose a document that would most surely fill the Royal Court with uproarious laughter. Regrettably, our inferior colonial calenders indicated His Majesty's birthday as taking place in July when it rightly takes place in June, so our little joke found its way into your blessed hands at a time when it would not be recognized as the playful jest that it was. To think, independence and representation for the people of the colonies! We are all of us laughing even now. For the love of the Almighty and all that is holy on His earth, let us remain under your benevolent rule for eternity, -Your Humble Subjects in America

Craigslist is indeed the most democratic place on the Internet, which explains why so much of it is full of the inexplicable stupidity usually reserved for movies starring Larry the Cable Guy. Unlike so many other clearly insane things on the web, craigslist replenishes its ridiculousness several times a minute by feeding on the local insanity of every major city in the world. This is why I must spend every Wednesday digging through its muck to expose the very worst that site has to offer. Possibly, my sacrifice might result in an alteration of craigslist's policies so this horrible content no longer has to spill forth on a daily basis. Possibly, but likely not. All of the following transcripts are unedited posts found on craigslist. Because all cragislist ads have a mercifully short lifespan, it would be impractical to include links, but I assure you that all of this is 100% real.  

Womens bull

why is that all of the fat overweight or just ugly women come on craigslist looking for sex or ltr then wont post a pic. or they want a man or a woman to lick their f ing hole without one i have be reading post like this for months now who in their right mind would want to lick a sick fat ugly womans hole when they cannot even take care of them selvesi am not the greatest speller and for this i am sorry but if you woman want a woman or a man they maybe you should post a pic or just say i am fat ugly and lazy dont care what i look like or smell like and maybe their will be a gross sick person out their that will service you

I suppose I shouldn't be astounded that the only thing for which this individual feels compelled to apologize is his spelling. Ironically, his spelling really isn't half bad, especially considering his chosen medium. Otherwise, this one really hits most of the major Internet stupidity categories. It uses zero punctuation, imagines itself to be thought-out and it manages to assume a level of moral superiority in what is actually a thoroughly repugnant sentiment. Best of all, this poster seems profoundly confused. What is it he wants? Is he upset that he can't find a woman he thinks is attractive on craigslist? If so, he needs to check his syntax because it reads more like a man who desperately wants to see more pictures of fat, ugly women demanding oral sex. Then again, this is the Internet.  

 

Laid off?

Looking for stories from laid-off workers who are wondering how to put their best foot forward and successfully market themselves to future employers. This is for an article to be published on a local jobs site. No pay, but you get to vent, and you'll get some great advice!

"Hey, guys! I HAVE A JOB writing for an employment agency website. Ya know, like the ones you go to every single day in the hopes of finding even the most measly scrap of labor, if not for the money then at least for your dignity. So, if you'd all just be dears and help me do research for MY JOB about how you've been screwed by this awful economy that, frankly, has been absolute gangbusters for me, that'd be just peachy. Also, I have no intention of compensating you for your time even though I'm totally going to get paid for this. Toodles!"

 

Good Conversation is an Elusive Mist

You know when you're in the midst of a good conversation. You can see it all around you, and it blocks out the rest of the world except for the most blaring intrusions. Yet it's something that finds you at the right time, not something you can go out and successfully find (usually). And, it's also impossible to hold on to longer than it's mean to be around. That being said, if you are highly intelligent, ambitious, charming, aggressive, ambitious, and have some time to exchange words to pass the time in the day, email me. Who are you?

I have no freaking clue. After reading that, I'm not sure I even know where I live anymore. Ya know, like when you want something but then it turns out that wanting is just a thing and you can't really grasp it like it's sunlight? Or like if you really just want to have some meaning in your existence but the only way to attain meaning is to reach for the stars and manage to dream the impossible fantasy like a cloud or a spark from a bare wheel well? Like the above poster, if you've got what I need then please, email me. I am a starving child and the only thing that sustains me is ridiculousness from the Internet. sarko.michael@gmail.com

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