Weird Al’s ‘White and Nerdy’ Quite Possibly his Funniest Video Yet
Holiday Shoppers Rejoice at the Amazing Deals Offered by Online Merchants
This holiday season, the best online deals ever to be announced will be available all the way through the holiday season and well beyond that into the new year.
This is because the online merchants, websites and stores are all feeling the retail pinch that is currently squeezing the United States economy, and in order to effectively do battle with this unusual retail slump, many are offering some never before heard of deals that scream amazing prices to all! So before you head out to the local store or department store, or shopping mall to do your holiday shopping, make sure that you read up on the different major online stores, because no matter how great the holiday deals that you may find locally will be, they are far surpassed by the numerous online deals that you can easily find during this time of the year!
Why is it Called Cyber Monday? Ah yes, the infamous Cyber Monday that you have all been hearing about. No, this is not some mythical electronic dubbing or coining of a day that does not really exist, one that is adorned with hard to find online deals. Rather, it is the ‘Black Friday’ of the online holiday shopping season, only held on the Monday following Turkey Day, as opposed to the Friday following Thanksgiving. Cyber Monday is where all of the online merchants officially announce their online deals for the holidays. The internet service providers gear up for what is the most used day of the year for the internet, and sometimes this overwhelming population of online users can slow down websites to a crawl. But do not worry—the largest websites out there will double up on service space and bandwidths to meet the demands of the consumers, who shop frenzy this time of year online.
Why Cyber Monday is Such a Big Deal During the earlier days of the internet, where most consumers did not have high speed internet connections, and had to rely upon the computers at work to find the right deals, as the computers at home would take an hour to load their email inbox webpage, they would all flock online at work the Monday following Thanksgiving. This trend became so popular that the day was eventually tagged as Cyber Monday. And still to today, only about one third of Americans have high speed internet access, which means that Cyber Monday is nearly as popular today as it was in the early 1990s. The online merchants realize this fad and race to place their biggest online deals of the year up just in time for this important online retail Monday.
What Kinds of Online Deals are Out There? You would not believe what kinds of online shopping deals that can be found on Cyber Monday. Major retail websites like Overstock.com announced that they would be discounting all items on their website significantly this Cyber Monday, and that they would be offering site wide free shipping, which if you are buying a fridge or something heavy, that’s an amazing deal. Other places, like Wal-Mart, offer signature deals online only, during this special online shopping day. And nearly every internet website out there has similar offerings for Cyber Monday.
The Pros and Cons to the Auto Bailout
Kelly nails the defensive issue - with SD's
I really have a problem with defensive statistics. Player perfomance does not have a normal distribution. Take Adrian Beltre and UZR. In the last three years he’s been 16.1 runs, -3.9 runs, and 18 runs different from average per 150 games. So given these three ’samples’, we can say with 95% confidence that Beltre is worth 10.1 runs +/- 19.4 runs.++ Kelly, I think that is the best way I've ever heard it put. +/- 19.4 runs. That's exactly it! :golfclap: . === Reductio ad Absurdum === Even a guy like Adam Dunn -- who nobody, especially me, wants to get stuck defending as to his glovework -- last year scored a strong 100+ as to his work in LF via PMR. Or, via Baseball Prospectus' RATE stat, he's 97 last year and 86 the year before. (Granted, he's low in the previous 4 years on RATE also.) Fans look at the 92 average down at the bottom of the chart -- but it's one thing to average 92 with a series that goes 92-92-92-92, and a different thing to average 92 with a series that includes a 103 and a 97. . === From High SD's to Appropriate Caution === So what are the SD's on these guys' D-stats? They're super huge. And here's where a feel for experimental design comes in, because when a trained research scientist like Kelly sees "10.1 +/- 19.4 runs," he immediately reacts to that number by saying "I don't know what the deuce is going on, at all." If we haven't been trained in experimental design, we might think, "well, that means Beltre is worth somewhere between -9 runs and +29 runs, so we're OK to call it +10 runs. No, we are not. 10 +/- 19 does not mean 10. It means there is a number in the model's suitcase, and that number might be -7, or it might be anything. . === Other Quick Examples === This is not atypical of defensive stats. Raul Ibanez' RATE average, in LF, averages a respectable 96 -- but the last two years, it's 101 and 86. What's the 95% capture range on that number? And the problem only gets worse when you start combining measuring systems, because 3 of them will have Raul at 92, but the other one might have him at 103. A baseball commentator will say, "The 103 doesn't count. There is NO evidence to believe Raul's defense is anything other than terrible." A statistician sees 6 systems that measure Raul, and they go 92 - 91 - 97 - 82 - 105 - 94, and he goes, "hold on a minute, here. We don't know what the reality is. The SD's on this set of numbers is too high." The non-statistician just tosses out the "flier" and proceeds with 100% certainty that he has measured the phenomenon of Raul's defense ... :- ( .............. Kelly continues to explain why he, as a man comfortable with coefficients of confidence, is hesitant to buy into the measurements that we saberdogs toss around:
It’s not just Beltre. Chipper Jones was 31st out of 32 (-16) qualified in ‘06 and 12th out of 34 (+7) in ‘08... But I think that misses the problem. Why are the defensive stats so random in the first place. These are not random fluctuations by my eye. Whether it is Beltre or Chipper Jones or Derek Jeter, the scatter on many individual performance from a 3 year ’sample often covers roughly 2/3 of the sample scatter of all players in a given year.Dr. Detecto's heartburn arrives every night on schedule :- ) because when it comes time to choose between Franklin Gutierrez and (say) Adam Dunn, the city of Seattle shows exactly no hesitation about buying into F-Gut's 2 defensive wins, or Dunn's 2 defensive losses. It weighs the clear and demonstrated offensive differences NO more heavily than the (highly suspect) defensive differences. How does Dr. D handle it? My rule of thumb is to take whatever people say about a given player's defense, and cut that in half, and then go ahead and treat that with appropriate respect. If people claim that F-Gut moves the W column from 85 to 87 merely with his glove, I'll go ahead and give him credit for 85 to 86. And that's plenty huge enough. Kelly continues,
So if you look closely, and keep the error in mind, almost everyone is within a win of average (which is what Dave Cameron says, for what it is worth). ... When I look at the numbers, Raul is not demonstrably a two loss player with the glove, he could be but you’d never know. I seems probable that he is a one loss player. It means he misses a flyball a fortnight..Defense is important. Absolutely. Let's just not go overboard here. An 80-OPS slick-glove center fielder is not going to change your team the way Adam Dunn or J.J. Putz are going to. ........... Returning to cool-headed investigative territory, Kelly finishes:
I think a substantial part of the year to year variation is real, but the cause is unaccounted for in the modeling. I can think of three potential sources: (1) year-to-year variation in the data quality (Raul’s argument, at least in part), (2) injuries, and (or) (3) variable concentration. I happen to think the dominant reason is injuries. When Derek Jeter goes from worst in the league to league average in back to back years, something must be. Right!?!Right, Dr D
$17.4 Billion Auto Bailout Approved by Bush
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Intellectual Tonguing: Coley and Moore Goto Town
In the pages of Arthur Magazine, every issue is a column that can’t have it’s worth nearly estimated. The column is immense, dense, disjointed and hugely informational.
Thurston Moore (who some of you may know from Sonic Youth – maybe) and his cohort Byron Coley, compile a massive listing of new (-ish) music, books and magazines that they find useful and interesting enough to pass along to readers called in “Bull Tongue.”
The real Bull Tongue – it’s a plant - grows in shallow water and gets to be rather high from the surface. Only the later can be levied against our two scribes here.
There won’t always be something in the column that you end up loving, but there will be countless items that will be at the very least intriguing. That’s in direct contrast to the rest of the magazine, where you’ll find commentary on music, art and life in general that really is indispensable – well that pot cultivation article wasn’t too useful now that I think of it.
But in this latest installment of Bull Tongue, Coley and Moore round up some literature and recall the glory of Punk Magazine. They praise Rusted Shut, Formerly Fat Harry, RSO, Nothing People, the tape label Excitebike and too much more to even consider right now. Unless you have yourself a good half an hour to try and digest all of this, don’t try. It can be hard to get through and from item to item there’s no real broad connection or general stream of thought. In some ways it’s similar to the Skyscraper column “Goin’ to Heaven in a Split Pea Shell,” but both are indispensable to voracious music dorks the world over.