Are We Blaming the Wrong Things for the Past DERs ?
Dr. Naka comments,
Let see what [Ibanez] had said again: “One of the reasons is, they don’t consider things like ballpark factors, defensive positioning or alignment for certain hitters” Now my question is: [w/r/t] defensive positioning for certain hitters: Who is responsible for it? The player or the coaches (team) ? Maybe Ibanez wants to say consciously or subconsciously that M’s have been very poor at defensive positioning or alignment for certain hitters. I agree that M’s defensive positioning or alignment for certain hitters was horrible because Hargrove and McLaren were old school and they set positioning by situation and not for best probability and to certain hitters. I observed it by Japanese TV which often shows the defensive positioning.Dr. Naka has been begging for us to pay more attention to the simple issue of defensive positioning as the #1 explanation for the M's low DER's. At D-O-V we paid lukewarm attention to this-- but as far as I know, at the other blogs, practically ZERO attention was paid to it. All credit, and blame, has been laid at the feet of the hitters' physical talent. Bring in a faster OF?, and boom, we'll have better DER; leave slugs like Ibanez in the OF and we can expect the doom of more bloated ERAs. ................. You know what? THIS time, I'm hearing it. Because now that Dr. Naka points it out, Raul did -- politely -- complain about the fact that he did not like his defensive positioning in Seattle. It's like when Erik Bedard came in, and immediately demanded certain catching situations, THAT time I finally gave some credence to something I found difficult to believe. I have found it hard to believe -- sorry, I've found it "counterintuitive," you college-grad amigos :- ) -- that the positioning of the fielders could have such impact. But now that Raul Ibanez (apparently) says the same thing that Dr. Naka has been saying all along? Okay. THIS time I'm going to clean the wax out of my ears. .............. Dr. Naka, as one of our (if not the) most-intelligent analysts, has constantly complained that the Mariners used hackneyed, general-principle type positioning. Brandon Morrow pitching? It's going to be hard to get around on his FB, so play the batters to push the ball. That's what Dr. N has observed the Mariners doing. As he notes, the old-school, general-principle positioning often (maybe usually!) contradicts the specific hitter-pitcher spray charts if you bother to look them up. Brandon Morrow might actually have a scatter chart that shows LH hitters pulling the ball against him; certainly his scatter chart might show a "pull" pattern against Joe Shlabotnik. Dr. N accused the M's of -- in practical terms, anyway -- relying on general principles without being aware of the more specific charts. ............. Here is Dr. Naka's article (Part I) from pre-season 2008 and here is Part II. At this link you can find Part III and if you click-a-rooni on this one you can get Part IV. Among the things that Dr. Naka pointed out, in this series, is that Kenji Johjima likes to give the pitch location away as late as possible ... but if you watch Lopez and Betancourt, you can see that a bit of laziness on their part causes them to then anticipate the direction of sharply-struck grounders as well as they should have:
What I saw at watching M's games in 2007. Yubet and Lopez are one of the best DP combi in MLB. I watched them field hard grounders over the 2nd base impossible for the average fielder to get to the ball for a ground out. But I saw also some plays where they froze at the first step and the ball get past them which a average fielder could get on. Lopez was also criticizes to have lost concentration.
Many other interesting, and detailed, observations are made by Dr. N in this 4-part series. It is an analysis that should be required reading throughout the blog-o-sphere and within the M's organization. The bottom line is, we have been assuming that the cause of the low DERs has been simply that the M's fielders are lousy. In reality, the M's fielders may indeed be partially victims of circumstances. The good news being, that those circumstances are easily correctable -- and they do indeed figure to be addressed by the intelligent Don Wakamatsu. The Mariners' DER may have figured to improve dramatically in 2009 with no change in its roster whatsoever. The fact that Wakamatsu-san also wants more talented defensive ballplayers could amplify this DER effect. It will be important for us amateur analysts to be aware that we are not going to be able to confidently measure the difference between PLAYERS by measuring the difference between 2008/09 TEAM RESULTS. This is cheerful news for the diehard Mariners fan. He may be in for a teamwide Xmas "wins bonus" before any actual player-personnel moves are taken into consideration. ....................... Apologies to Dr. Naka, but for some reason, it took Raul's opaque little remark to wake me up. Cheers, jemanjiLincoln-Kennedy Coincidences
Though I (jemanji) do not see this 'freaky phenomenon' as anything other than coincidence, it is entertaining when viewed as a 'karmic echo'. Did Lincoln leave unfinished business?
Beginning, purpose, and ending of careers: Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy were:
Elected in 1860 and 1960 Catalysts for the two most important pieces of civil rights legislation (Emancipation Proclomation and eventual Civil Rights Act, 1963) Shot by enemies of the United States (Booth a Confederate sympathizer, Oswald a Marxist) First elected to Congress in 1846 and 1946, respectively Both were runners-up for the party's nomination for vice-president in '56 Both were shot in the head, on a Friday, in the presence of their wives Booth supposedly ran from a theater and was captured in a warehouse, while Oswald ran from a book warehouse and captured in a theater ... Both assassins were themselves assassinated -- by religious zealouts -- before they could go to trial, and both men had three names with 15 letters Both Presidents were succeeded as President by Southern Democrats named Johnson (Andrew and Lyndon) -- who each won a single re-election term -- and then declined to run for a second term Both Johnsons were born in -08 (1808 and 1908) and supposedly had kidney stones -- the only two Presidents to suffer from this malady'Echoes' in the Presidents' family lives include:
Both men waited until their middle 30's to marry Both men married socially prominent women who were 24-year-old brunettes who spoke fluent French and were famous for fashion sense Both Lincoln and Kennedy were 2nd children, named after their grandfathers Both had a son die while President Two of Lincoln's sons were named Robert and Edward (the names of the other two famous Kennedy brothers)Other 'echoes' include:
Both men were celebrated for being unusually well-read; both were especially interested in law, Shakespeare, and the Bible Both had congenital diseases - Kennedy with Addison's Disease, Lincoln supposedly with Marfan Syndrome Neither man was much interested in personal security, to the dismay of their Secret Service retinue Both men were involved in debates that were among the most famous of all time: Lincoln with Douglas, Kennedy with Nixon Both selected a Billy Graham as key advisers (Lincoln's friend an Illinois schoolteacher) Both joined the military and skippered boats (Lincoln the Talisman; Kennedy the PT 109)Among the most entertaining coincidences involve their successors as President; Andrew Johnson's career did indeed parallel Lyndon B. Johnson's, perhaps because of the nature of the career of an unelected precedent and because of the similarities between Lincoln's and Kennedy's preferences. Here is an excellent site that draws many parallels. Many other coincidences exist, most of a more-trivial variety, such as "Andrew and Lyndon both have six letters," "Lincoln and Kennedy both have seven letters," "both were with one other couple when assassinated, and the male acquaintance was injured but not killed," "both First Ladies renovated the White House," etc. . === Coincidence? === There are times when "synchronicity" can be measured statistically, but this is not one of them. For example, Lincoln's sons were named Robert and Edward, but we would have "included" this coincidence if it had been Lincoln's uncles -- or cousins, or grandchildren, etc. When calculating probability, we need a denominator in the fraction. Many of these coincidences can't even conceivably be assigned a denominator. The set of coincidences themselves can't be compared to a larger pool of possible coincidences. For example, we included their first elections to Congress -- but how about the time they got their first job? How many such non-coincidences occurred? We don't know. We do know that their careers were a nice even 100 years apart, so that many of their career milestones will track about (or exactly) 100 years apart. Snopes.com has a fine presentation of the type of reasoning that dismisses the pattern. ............... At the same time, the Lincoln-Kennedy parallels have an uncommon charm to them. Exactly 100 years later, the other major Civil Rights President emerges, has a fairly similar personality and set of life experiences, lives much the same kind of life and has the same death. A weird synchronicity in U.S. history. Cheers, jemanji ................. image: http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/99sep/images/9909lincoln.jpg
Baby Names
lets share baby names... i'm open to any suggestions... unisex names are the best and the more exotic the better... but no names that will traumatize and stunt his emotional growth for the rest of his/her life please... or if not anywhere i can find dope baby names... i've been to www.verybestbaby.com and looked at their choosing baby names... you can go on there and let me know which name catches your eye...
making the most important decision of my baby's life,
lana
making the most important decision of my baby's life,
lana
any pharmacys other than flordia?
Someone , a few days ago, mentioned a pharmacy in PA that fills hydro. scripts. I looked back in the threads but could'nt find the information. I would appriciate information from anyone who might know about this. Also who do you order from to go through them. It seems that all the pharmacy, that sell hydro are in flordia. Any thoughts on this??? Thanks
obedience
While on a leash or in the house my Dal does OK, If I take her outside off the leash and try to watch her as I work she dissappears. And when I do find her she is very reluctant to come to me. How can I get her to come when I call her. She is a rescued dog about 4 to 5 yrs old. I have had her about 3 yrs. Tried the underground wire but she was very afraid of it. So took it up. We take walks in the fields everyday as long as she is on the leash she is good. But if she is off the leash it's a problem to get her to come. She eventually comes in her own sweet time.
need help.
bob e
to hydro 105
how were you able to order 3 times in 3 weeks. alot of people asking this question is it possible to let me know to answer other's questions on this matter Thanks
"Winnibago" sont
About 20 years ago there was a song satirizing RVs. It had a sort of refrain with the words "you see that man from Michigan / with his gol-darn Winnie-bag-o", and contained the words "every third car on the road" and a stanza "Now Winnie-bag-o, as we all know, / Is a good ol' Injun name, / Means "Standin' in stagnant water," / An' it ain't no claim to fame." (All these quotations are from long-term memory and are approximate rather than precise.) Since I don't know artist or title, I can't look it up in the on-line data bases. Can anyone identify this for me?
You Have Health Insurance, What About Your Pets?
Many people in our great nation have personal health insurance. It serves to cover them when they go to the doctor, or have to be admitted to the hospital, and in the event of a medical emergency, it protects their financial stability by absorbing large cost surgeries and medical procedures that most people could never hope to afford out of pocket. But, many people also have pets, sometimes more than one. So what happens when your pet becomes ill and you can not afford to pay the veterinary bill? Thankfully there are now companies that are offering affordable pet health insurance that foots a large chunk of the bill, and covers almost every single known procedure, but at the same time, is very affordable, costing on average about a dollar per day, per pet.
Pros and Cons of Pet Health Insurance
There are some pros and cons to pet health insurance, and they are as follows. The most popular vet insurance plan is the Iams VPI insurance plan, used by millions of Americans, myself included. It costs around thirty bucks per month, per pet, no discounts. In order for your pet to be eligible for this insurance they must have a checkup and the doctor has to sign a form that they are in good health. Then a few bits of paperwork are filled out and the plan becomes active.
The pros to the plan are that it covers about fifty to sixty percent of the cost of all procedures, no matter what they are; from shots to checkups, to surgeries to cancer treatments. The cons are that it only covers a certain percentage of the procedure, and you pay out of pocket at first and fax a claim form to the company, who sends you a check in the mail for the difference a few business days later.
Where can you Find Pet Health Insurance
You can easily find pet health insurance online. But make sure that you do your research and that the plan offers ample coverages and has a competitive price per month. Make sure that the customer service team is highly efficient, and that you can make claims online. See what other customers have to say about their experience with the company and make sure that the treatments are covered at most veterinarians, and not only a few, company approved vets. Finally, see how long the company has been in business, this will give you an idea of how good a company that they are.
How Much Does Pet Health Insurance Cover?
Most per insurance plans that I have looked over will cover between thirty and sixty percent of the costs of treatments. They all will reimburse you after you send them a copy of the bill; it is not like normal human insurance. And the best pet health insurance plans cover all diseases and illnesses, from parvo to cancers, no matter what it is, which also includes checkups and shots, and regular and routine visits. Take your time when choosing a company and make sure that they meet these requirements and you can finally have a peace of mind when it comes to the wellbeing of your furry loved one!
Jose Lopez at 1B?
Speaking of defense, D-Wak says he loves it so much he might move Lopez to 1B for good. I was intrigued by that notion when we had slick-fielding and interesting lefty bat Luis Valbuena, and didn’t have Branyan-Shelton on the roster.Hopefully he's trying to bluff his bosses into buying him a stick? :- ) Here's a good article from John Hickey on D-Wak's "bluff." D-Wak is supposed to be pretty smart. He's got to see the problemos with putting Jose's bat at first. Start by understanding that Dr. D is staunchly against the idea of putting a league-average hitter at a corner position so as to go along with the local infatuation with defense. (Note that we didn't say that we are against FIXING the defense.) I'm not sympathetic to the idea of clear and concrete sacrifices of offense for ephemeral, possible gains in defense. But that said, here is one way that such a move could work: (1) If Jose Lopez is about to assume his rightful place as Miguel Tejada's batting heir. Check his splits from 2008:
1H - .298 .318 .412 2H - .294 .327 .487 (with a *lower* BABIP than 1H)Lopez was 24 years of age last season -- i.e., with plenty of room to grow from here. Miguel Tejada, his last four years in Oakland, hit just about that .294/.327/.487 for the A's. JLo hit 12 homers in the second half -- playing only 67 games. He might hit one every five or six games from now on. As John Benson would put it, the ast time we saw Lopez, he in fact WAS hitting like Miguel Tejada. ................ (2) if JLo is going to be a tremendous defensive first baseman. You can't usually cut off as many runs from 1B as you can from, say, SS, because the SS gets 2.5 times as many baseballs hit that way. But then again, a great defensive 1B might have a differential at his position that is much larger than a SS can obtain compared to the waterbugs he is competing with. 1B Ozzie Smith's range might be so much larger than Paul Konerko's, that he saves almost as many more hits at 1B as he does at SS. I dunno. That's your hope, anyway. I suppose that JLo might get into his second baseman's crouch, scamper around the far-right sector of the infield and cut off a ton of hits. *BP's RATE had JLo at 100 for his 13 games last year, which is (1) a very shallow dataset, (2) wouldn't matter even if it were a sound metric, since JLo has yet to learn the position, and (3) is a better number than no number at all. .............. (3) If you find a second baseman you like. Atlanta's supposedly on the phone about a Kelly Johnson for Brandon Morrow deal ... Hickey quotes D-Wak as saying,
"We're looking to see if there is a plus-plus defensive second baseman out there," Wakamatsu said. "Then if we move Jose to first base, and he can defend there and make us above average on the right side, that would be good. That's the whole focus -- can we defend? "Look at Tampa Bay. Look at what (shortstop Jason) Bartlett did for that team last year. They had some phenomenal players already, but sometimes it's that one player in a key position that makes things work."So most of online Seattle ought to be pleased about the huge emphasis on defense. If Silva and Washburn are going to throw 40% of the SP innings, I'm not going to complain about it either. Kelly Johnson ought to fill the order for a "plus-plus" defensive second baseman. Though Sandy can correct me on this one, Atlanta is supposed to want top-flight pitching in return. And on which second basemen are out there who are better choices than KJ. On second thought, how about a 40-homer man for first and let JLo do his Tejada thing in the middle infield? And that way, we wouldn't even have to deal a Brandon Morrow. :- ) Cheers, Dr D ............. image: http://marinerds.com/pictures/062607/168-Lopez.JPG .
Drug Dealers Busted in Mexico Yield Hundreds of Exotic Animals
Earlier this month (December, 2008) Mexican authorities served search and arrest warrants on several big time drug dealer kingpins, seizing their estates, cars and belongings, and charging them with enough crimes to put them away in prison. But there is another problem that they are finding: many big time drug dealers are obsessed with exotic animals. Case and point: a recent drug bust in San Simon de Guerrero, Mexico, netted 193 exotic animals, from zebras to white tigers, even monkeys. And, Mexican authorities are at ends on how they can care for the animals and find them homes in the where while, as the Mexican zoos are already too overpopulated to house the animals.
You can read the full news story Here
Why Big Time Drug Dealers are Infatuated with Exotic Animals
Big time drug dealers and czars have always been obsessed with exotic animals. Most experts say it has to do with a combination of ego and fear; some exotic animals invoke fear into people and the drug dealers thrive on this notion. Others say that the lavishness and rarity of the animals are what attract dealers. For example, the above aforementioned drug bust that yielded nearly two hundred animals, was seized from a 3500 acre estate that had many full time employees hired just to care for the animals. An issue that some experts say is also to blame: the drug dealers like owning the animals because they know they are expensive to own, and it makes them feel like they own status symbols with each animal.
Recent News Shows Hundreds of Exotic Animals Seized With Drug Bust
The above news article is not the only one that shows drug dealers loving exotic animals. A recent bust in the USA yielded 23 alligators from a drug dealer’s estate, and other famous drugs busts have yielded hundreds more, all from kingpin dealers that have a statement to make. If you take on the mind of the fear inspiring drug dealer that will kill an opponent in a heartbeat just to make an extra buck faster, then it does make some sense. They invite others over and show off by petting a wild tiger, a display of confidence and fearlessness that they wish to purvey onto others with whom they do business.
The Government has a Hard Time Taking Care of the Seized Animals
The worst part about this is the fate of the exotic animals. Officials in Mexico spend around $350 per day feeding six large wild cats that were recently seized. The zoos have no room or money for them and there is not exactly a long line of people waiting to adopt the animals. Furthermore, only certain people, organizations and zoos are able to legally adopt the animals. Because they are cared for in a domestic setting, they are not able to simply be released back into the wild, as they would struggle for survival. Perhaps the best bet at finding these poor animals a home would be for a rights activist group to step up to the plate and created habitat for these seized animals, where they can enjoy the rest of their days without being abused any further, or subjected to cramped quarters and being constantly moved around from location to location.