2003 Tour de France
A Big Three in the Postseason ?
. === In New York === The 1996-2001 Yankees had both overwhelming frontline starting pitching and outstanding veteran leadership, and parlayed those things (as well as great relief pitching) into this amazing record:1) It's not totally random--and I'm sure that [GM X] didn't mean to say that it was--but the random factors are immense compared to the regular season. The element of luck is six to eight times greater in determining the winner of a 7-game series than in determining a 162-game champion, while the difference between the teams competing is LESS in post-season than in the regular season, so the RELATIVE impact of luck is greater than that.The relative impact of luck in post-season play is vastly larger than it is in the regular season......................2) The key thing, I think, is just to try to have a better team than anybody else. The better team won't always win, but they'll win more often than anybody else does........................3) Front-line starting pitching is certainly much more important in the post season than in the long season, and the depth and balance of the starting rotation is somewhat less important. I believe that I demonstrated that this was true 25 years ago, and it still is, although it is not as true as it used to be, since more levels have been added to post-season play.But don't forget the reliever. The relief ace is also magnified greatly in post-season play, for the simple reason that he pitches much MORE in post-season play than during the regular season. Look at what Keith Foulke did for us (the Red Sox) in post-season play (and Foulke was really the unsung hero of the Red Sox post-season run.)I have not run the numbers, but I am guessing that if you took Keith Foulke's performance in post-season play and projected that out to 162 games, you'd get about 110 appearances and 150 innings pitched. Mariano Rivera in the Yankees' successful post-seasons. . .same thing. The importance of relief aces is exaggerated in post-season play, because they simply pitch a lot more than they do before October 1...................4) I don't know about the "swagger factor" that somebody cited. . .I don't think with the Red Sox we look for star players with a John Wayne walk, except that sometimes we may look to avoid them.But I absolutely believe that the Red Sox could not have come back from a 3-0 hole against the Yankees were it not for truly exceptional veteran leadership on the team.I am reluctant to comment for fear of offending whoever isn't mentioned, but Curt Schilling personified courage and determination. Kevin Millar is always positive, always upbeat, and never believes that he is going to be defeated. Jason Varitek is serious, focused, hard-working and intense. Keith Foulke is quiet, but very serious, very calm, and very confident. David Ortiz, although he doesn't get the same media credit for his leadership skills, has large portions of the positive outlook of Kevin Millar, the guts and determination of Curt Schilling, the confidence of Foulke and the focus and intensity of Varitek.Beyond those five quite remarkable leaders, we still have leadership on this team, in the form of players like Gabe Kapler, Trot Nixon, Johnny Damon, Bill Mueller, Tim Wakefield, Pedro Martinez, Mike Timlin and others........................It is unfortunate that sometimes people confuse bad hair with a lack of seriousness, and I have a "Boston Idiots" T-Shirt myself. But these are guys who are not old, but they have been there and done that, and they are not nervous. In all honesty, I doubt that there has ever been a team that was more blessed in diverse leadership than the 2004 Red Sox.Bill James
1995 - 2-3 games, 0-1 series 1996 - 11-4, 3-0 1997 - 2-3, 0-1 1998 - 11-2, 3-0 1999 - 11-1, 3-0 2000 - 11-4, 3-0 2001 - 10-7, 2-1 14-2 in series from 1996-2001 2002 - 1-3, 0-1 2003 - 9-8, 2-1 2004 - 6-5, 1-1 Total - 74-40 game record,.649), 17-6 series record (!)Since about 2001, the Yankees have not been able to recapture the El Duque - Cone - Boomer - Pettitte rotations. . === In Seattle === As we've noted, the 2001 Mariners (who went 116-46) were pretty much the opposite of all those things -- fine #4-5 starters rather than HOF #1-2 starters. Fine #10 players (McLemore, Javier) as opposed to marquee performers who had been in the WS before. Relievers who were excellent but overrated in terms of experience under fire. If I wanted to try to win the World Series I would prioritize it about like this:
1) A top-down spirit of attack 2) As much horsepower as possible into the 1-2, and maybe 1-2-3, slots in the rotation 3) "Veteran leadership" -- meaning, players who have been far in the playoffs before, and performed well there 3a) This means Marquee Players who are not "mistake hitters" only ... Sexson e.g. being suspect, objectively speaking 4) 10k/game relief aces if possible 5) The best 25 players overall, including LH'ers for Safeco, OBP, all that jazz 6) After all that, all you are left with, is the best *chance* to win ... 6b) But also you are left with a clean conscience, delighted customers, and increasing revenueIn Seattle, the Mariners are suiting up Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard and Brandon Morrow, and it doesn't take much imagination at all to see the stars align and cast the M's as 2009's most feared team in a short series. For all the M's travails they are within a long stone's throw (and a busy winter's work) of being VERY dangerous. Cheers, jemanji ...................... image: http://llnw.image.cbslocal.com/0/2008/04/16/320x240/erik_bedard_80501454...
De Angels Be Bad
Cle - 100 and 114 - 14×2 = 28 … 30 over .500, 20 over per Pythag LAA - 100 and 108 - 8×2 = 16 … 26 over .500, 18 over per Pythag Det - 110 and 100 - 10×2 = 20 … 14 over .500, 16 over per Pythag NYY - 118 and 099 - 17×2 = 34 … 26 over .500, 32 over per Pythag Bal - 095 and 089 - -16×2 = -32 … 34 under .500, 20 under per PythagThere are fliers: the 2007 Mariners were one of them. By this napkin formula, they were 104+91 = -5 and "should have been" actually 7-10 games under .500, if their roster composition were typical. But the point is, if you have a 110-115 offense and 100 defense, or vice versa, you can figure on contending, kids. Flip through the pages and see! …………………….. MOST playoff teams are excellent at EITHER offense or defense, and solid in the other. You can be a pitching team, or a hitting team, and contend. You get excellent in both, you’re going win 100-108 games. 100 wins is not the minimum standard before trading for an ace. If you do some of your own b-ref.com browsing, you'll quickly decide, for yourself, that a 112 staff and a 100-105 offense targets the playoff drought for termination. ............................ None of that will buy you a belief in yourself, though. For that you need a different cosmetics counter. Gotta like the shopping the M's have done so far. Cheers, jemanji ................... image: http://sports-odds.com/images/stories/la-angels.jpg
Berra - Howard Dept.
"We could go without a third catcher, yes," Wakamatsu said. "But would we be comfortable in that situation? No. If we could sign a Willie Bloomquist-type (utility player) who could back up a lot of positions in an emergency, that would make it easier to carry a third catcher."This is a quite remarkable thinking-outside-the-box statement by D-Wak. Last year we were throwing crumpled paper cups around as to whether the Mariners could ever, for a single game, start Clement at DH when he was the only other catcher on the roster. Note well that D-Wak is talking about the possibility of going with no third catcher in the 2009 scenario in which Johjima-san and Clement are usually starting in the same game. Mull that one over for a minute. That doesn't sound crazy to a purist; it sounds simian. Do we need one of those 1x4x9 Monoliths to help D-Wak leap forward an evolutionary plateau? Nah, it's not crazy, just awkward.
1. Clement would frequently be playing 1B, so if Johjima came out of the game, Clement could move from 1B to C. This switch is unusual but not at all uncomfortable. 2. When Clement did play DH, if you ever did move him to C -- late in the game, now, kiddies -- all you lose is (at most) one AB (because it would have to be taken by the pitcher). Plan this right and that lineup slot wouldn't usually have to come up. 3. Notice that in the AL, you almost never pinch-hit. And it's not like the Mariners are going to have Terry Crowley or Gates Brown on the bench. And if you did, you could pinch-hit for umpteen other well-qualified Mariners.So if it's worth talking about, to play the season with only two C's, and both of those usually starting together, what's the big deal talking about doing it every now and then? . === Keeping Roster Messups Out of Our Hair === As Wakamatsu points out, this ...
Johjima C Clement 1B/DH No other catchers.... would be "uncomfortable." As a tonic, he recommends a two-in-one utility player, who would then make it possible to carry 3 catchers and 12 pitchers. More on this in the Jerry Hairston Jr. post below... . === Dr's R/X === Now, if Jeff Clement is mostly a bench player, then I've got nothing against skipping the 3rd catcher. No worries about the odd game in which you bat the pitcher once. The pitcher hitting once is a single consideration to be weighed against other considerations, not a baseball embarrassment to be viewed as an absolute. But if Clement's a starter, even I'm not crazy enough to carry Johjima C, Clement DH, and no other catchers. Though I'd be thrilled if the Mariners tried it. :- ) Much as I love to kick over the traces of baseball purism, here's one that we have to toe the line on. Guess you need another catcher if Clement's playing. .............. Besides, doesn't Rob Johnson more-than-deserve it? For those keeping score at home, Johnson is looking at his fourth (4th) season in AAA next year. His MLE's were .275/.333/.380 -- in other words, about as good as the bottom 5-10 catchers in the majors, most years. Johnson is a defensive specialist and was ready to back up in the majors the day before yesterday. Unfortunately, a lot of other guys were ready to back up a long time ago, too, like Jamie Burke. It's the kind of decision in which they allow themselves the luxury of weighing personalities heavily. Like D-Wak says, pick your C benchie, find a versatile glove man like Hairston, and let Clement play. . === Hey, It Says Right On My Application I Wanted Some WORK === But if Clement isn't starting, then you can skip the 3rd catcher as long as the manager isn't lazy during games. That's what D-Wak meant by "A lot of it is going to be determined by how well Jeff swings the bat." If Clement doesn't "win" a starting job, apparently Wakamatsu is prepared to step lively around the pitcher-hits-as-DH minefields. Cheers, Dr D
Scarring
It’s always shocking to find a film so deep with good writing, good acting, beautiful camera work and enough surprises to keep you wide-eyed, but remains largely unknown.
That’s pretty much the back story for The Scar released in 1948.
Coming not all too long after World War II, there is an air of intrigue about the entire film. It’s not spy related, but there are some characters whose identities become intertwined and eventually overlap.
John Muller, here played by Paul Henreid, is a thief recently released from prison. He has such acumen for his work, it’s even recognized by the warden. As he again reconstitutes his gang to plan another heist, he finds that some of them are less than eager to oblige. He gets around this obstacle with the promise of the grandest heist that any could imagine. And the plan works – well sorta.
Muller and one of his associates escape, while the other three reveal their identities to the victims of the theft. Part of the initial reticence in planning for the heist was that no one ever escaped the vengeance of this casino owner and now Muller is concerned for his life.
He hides out for as long as he can, but feels that he doesn’t have too much longer. As lucky happenstance, he encounters a doctor who could in fact be his twin – save for the scar on his check.
Muller decides to knock off the doctor and assume his practice, date his girl and forever live the life of his doppelganger. Everything seems to be going well – he fools patients, secretaries and nurses and even his girlfriend for a time.
Muller thinks that he’s gotten away with hiding in plain sight – an admirable plan. But one day his brother shows up looking for him, his girl runs off and he’s left to fend for himself. Arriving at a logical end, Muller decides to skip town. He has nothing there any longer and figures that he can maintain his newfound identity in another locale. He’s completely right. Unfortunately, he didn’t count on the good doctor’s debts coming back to haunt him.
Goin' On: Nina Simone
No one should ever really need an excuse to talk about Nina Simone. But the first time I ever even heard the name was in Le Femme Nikita, a film Luc Besson wrote and directed.
In the film, a young miscreant gets herself sent to jail for robbery, is summarily drugged and programmed to be a killer. She’s given the opportunity to choose a new name. Nikita decides to use the name of a singer she recalls her mother enjoying a great deal. That singer was Nina Simone.
It’s odd to think that Simone had that large an impact as to be name checked in a ‘90s French film, but she did.
Beginning with dreams of becoming a concert pianist, but being derailed by race much like Art Tatum, Simone began utilizing her commanding voice to open new avenues of work for herself. It worked pretty well.
The song “Sinnerman” has been performed by countless acts including Peter Tosh, but Simone’s version lends insight into her ferocious and ever shifting stylistic appetites. That one song is funk, piano jazz and ballad. That’s a lot of ground to cover even if the song clocks in at eight minutes.
Additionally, she’s more than notable for her contributions to civil rights marches that began taking place in the late ‘50s and early ‘60s. She was present during a number of key instances involving the late Martin Luther King, Jr. and performed appropriate, original material touching on social ills of the time. It is possible that her vocal distaste for the overt racism of the south and segregation in general, negatively affected her career. Of course, if given another chance, there’s really no way that Simone would decide silence herself.
In a really fascinating glimpse into her life, The Fader has re-posted a series of interviews with her daughter, who is also a singer, as well as Simone’s former husband and long time manager.
The articles were originally posted to accompany the release earlier this year of a three cd and one DVD collection of Simone’s work entitled To Be Free: The Nina Simone Story. The interviews work to give reader’s greater insight as to who the private Nina Simone was. It’s not always pretty and sometimes it’s even confusing, but it’s all true – at least from the perspective of the speaker. And really the more that everyone knows about this sometimes unrecognized singer, the better.
POTD Jerry Hairston Jr
Hairston 2008 - 7.5 runs per 27 outs Hairston 2007 - 2.2 runs per 27 outs (count them, 2.2) Hairston 2006 - 2.2 runs per 27 outs Hairston career - 4.2 runs per 27 outs Hairston's age - 33 going into next seasonThe idea is kicked around a lot these days, "this is the kind of player who ages early." Yeah. The kind of player who ages early is the kind who scuffled to play in the bigs at 27. We've seen plenty 'nuff sub-100 OPS+'s. Hairston, for the years 2006-07, had a sub-40 OPS+. Jemanji could hit that. You've heard of buying high and selling low? What would you think if Willie B had a year with a .384 OBP in part-time play, and then some team went out and planned their season around his doing that for them? In 11 seasons, Hairston has had 2 seasons in which is OPS was average or better. Last year was one of them, and it occurred over in that other league. You buying in? . === He Has Been a Good Player, Dept. === Back in Hairston's prime, he used to run 1.00 eye ratios and very efficient line-drive splits (equal GB and FB with plenty of LD). He worked the count and squared the ball up -- and put together a few power-sapped but effeicnet [4.5, 5.0 runs per game] years. Those were long gone at 30 and 31 in Texas. His eye ratios reflected his scuffles, and he popped the ball up while fighting those rearguard actions. Hairston did go over to the NL and climb halfway back to normal -- 0.6 eye or so, and good G/F splits -- but now he's turning 33 and returning to the AL. The partial-rebound in Cincy isn't to be chased by an AL team buying his age-33 season. ........... Hairston'sfine, if filling precisely the role that Willie did: providing reasonable defense anywhere, stealing a base for you in the 8th inning, and any offense being gravy. Don't think of his addition as providing the "dot of an i" or the "cross of a T" more than Willie would. Why did we get rid of Willie, again? It would probably be presumptuous of me to figure it had something to do with Willie being married to the old regime. This isn't a complaint, just a musing. In establishing new chemistry, new intangibles, fine, you do need to put folks on notice that you've got nothing against handing out pink slips. We all know how the Oakland A's respond to the sword of Damocles. .................. Bring Hairston in, no problemo. Or bring in any other utility SS who can, by definition, run out to any lesser position on the diamond. But let's not ask Ron W. to carry the mail for Harry P. when he's doing just fine where he is. Much less to start at Ron at second base and Quidditch seeker. Yowch. Cheers, jemanji ................. images http://www.hros-bad-laer.de/2002_2003/harrypotter/quidditch.jpg http://www.mlahanas.de/Greeks/Mythology/RM/WestallDamocles.jpg