Clement at C or 1B?

At Lookout Landing, Graham has a fine post in which he discusses the pros and cons of moving Jeff Clement away from catcher. (I hope he'll take this as a compliment, by the way, but in any case my impression of this LL author is that he's one of the four or five guys on the entire baseball internet who is so smart, that he knows he is dumb. And that's meant as high praise.Personally, I understand the value of knowing what I don't know, but can't seem to get the hang of it!) This particular line made me smile:
Remember that the worst defensive catcher of all time was worth -10 runs.
This is a logical mechanism that they won't teach you in college, but Bill James has been exploiting it since the 1980's. For example, Bill once ran computer sims of the very worst lineup sequences he could devise -- for example, Ichiro hitting 8th, and Beltre hitting 9th, and Betancourt and Gutierrez 1-2, that kind of thing. Bill found that no matter how wretchedly you twist a lineup, you can't penalize yourself more than about 5%. ... "and if the difference between a horrible lineup and a perfect one is 5%, then what is the difference between two reasonable lineups? That's right. It's nothing." Graham, no doubt in a completely independent manner, picks up this logical tool and applies it to catcher: "If the difference between the greatest and the worst catchers is 10 runs, what is the difference between two non-flier defensive performances at catcher?" Dr. D would have finished, "that's right. It's nothing." Graham, more circumspectly, says to peg it at 5. .............. So LL finishes the recommendation to leave Clement at C with,
For 5 runs of defensive upgrade, Jeff Clement would lose 25 runs of positional value. 25! Potential injuries aside, no matter how bad he looks in the field, there is no way that you shift Clement off his postion right now.
Which states the case beautifully. ................. On the other hand, and just adding our two cents to a perfectly sound observation ... James about 1993 wrote an article in which he noted that the above logic was what he had believed all his life -- until he started watching the best organizations in baseball. And he noticed that when a good organization had a choice between placing a young franchise player at (say) 3B or SS -- when a player was a "tweener" -- it almost always put the player at the easier position. Rather than putting a Troy Glaus or Howard Johnson (pick your own name; those are out of hats and don't mean anything) at shortstop and letting them battle the position, orgs would let the young star move to an easy position, excel at defense there, and develop a better offensive arc than they otherwise would. Putting a player at his toughest position, noted Bill, is exactly what you do in a Strat-O-Matic game, and for exactly the reason articulated by LL. Because you gain a lot more runs through the position differential than you give up on defense. A good Strat-O team would consist of a lot of Adrian Beltres at SS. The real world intervenes, and putting a player at the easier of two positions helps nurture the player into a better career. .................... On the OTHER other hand, in THIS case, Dr. D would leave Jeff Clement at catcher if at all possible. The list of teams in baseball history who had huge bats at C -- Yogi Berra, Johnny Bench, Roy Campanella, Pudge Rodriguez, Mike Piazza, Bill Dickey -- is a list of teams that won lots of pennants. +25 runs doesn't even really capture the effect of gaining an extra cleanup hitter.  When Thurman Munson or Gary Carter are catching and batting #3 or #4, it's as if the pitcher is facing two lineups at once.  The synergy involved just seems overwhelming to me.   Put a huge bat at C, and then fill in a normally-dangerous lineup in addition, and it's like there's nowhere for the pitcher to breathe. Having a #4 hitter playing catcher -- whether he's good at catching or not -- is one whale of a step up on a baseball pennant.   Think of a catcher who hit great, and you'll probably also be thinking of a team that was in the playoffs a lot. Good stuff, Dr D ................. image: http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/images/2008/04/30/iuBLKyH8.jpg

More of Moore's Lists

Being Thurston Moore has to be a rather tiring gig. You front Sonic Youth with your wife, who you have a daughter with, you released a solo disc this year apart from S.Y., you’ve printed a No Wave photo book, write the Bull Tongue column for Arthur, own Ecstatic Peace (it’s a record label) and then make this list of sweet swag from the past year. Even if you don’t care for half of what’s on that list, you have to admit, it’s pretty impressive.

What Moore lists here, is in some ways a companion to his latest column (with Byron Coley) this month in Arthur. There's mention of ExBx (aka Excite Bike), but in this newfound list, Moore includes every media type well he comes pretty close at least.

So in addition to his penchant for noise, Moore gets into his filmic and reading tastes as well.

The first thing he mentions is a German film entitled Eight Miles High and goes on to name check a Norwegian vampire flick too. Needless to say, Moore's tastes vary.

He also continues on to recall a pair of pretty interesting sounding books, the first of which seems to be the L.A. punk version of his No Wave book. Live at the Masque: Nightmare in Punk Alley chronicles the slew of messy, caterwauling groups that appeared at the L.A. basement club during the late '70s. The photo-book includes the A-list players, but since the Masque encompassed the grandeur of L.A. punk, there're probably a great many groups include that generally fly under the radar of punk enthusiasts.

The final item Moore recalls is a book from Cro-Mags front man John Joseph. The Evolution of a Cro-Magnon details the groups' popularity and the New York hardcore scene in a general sense. Moore's apparent favorite aspect of this page turner are the sporadic, personal out cries from Joseph to his friends and those not close to him any longer. It honestly sounds fascinating.

So if you're having trouble figuring what to get your very own music geek, you might be able to use Moore's favorites as a shopping list this year. Good luck.

Dr. Zef Damen on Crop Circle Geometry

Zef Damen, Ph.D, has one of the most dazzling websites on the entire internet. On the site, he offers geometrical reconstructions of many recent crop circles. Damen is a Dutch engineer with many patents and other notable professional accomplishments. Interestingly, Dr. Damen specializes in pattern recognition, which has been a frequent topic of ours on detectovision.com. Chessplayers use pattern recognition to cut their work down over the tournament board, and sabermetric baseball analysts use historical "player template" precedents to judge the future performance of their favorite young baseball players. Damen doesn't discuss pattern recognition much on his site, that I can tell. He does, however, show a stunning talent for it with his "reverse engineering" of crop circles through geometry. ................ As a very simple example, consider the following crop circle: Dr. Damen points out that this pattern-in-the-field can be precisely diagrammed through the application of five steps of geometry:
1. Draw a circle, and extend the centerlines. 2. Inscribe two equilateral triangles, pointing in reverse direction. 3. Construct a circle passing through the intersections of the two triangles. 4. Construct another circle, with its center at the point of one of the triangles, so that it is tangent to the second (smaller) circle. 5. Construct two more circles at the other points of the same triangle.
As one considers Dr. Damen's construction of this pattern in AutoCAD .... ... one is tempted to believe that this is how circle hoaxers laid out their perfect symmetry in the field. These beautiful reconstructions form a sort of "floor plan" of the formations, and as Damen points out, help us to "better understand" the diagrams. He cautions that his motivation is decidedly NOT to investigate HOW the patterns are created in the fields. His motivation seems to be simply to "understand" the geometry (as if we lesser mortals "understand" sequences of numbers or shapes in the way that Damen does). Because of the geometry used, the diagrams can be reconstructed using unlined rulers. Note that distances are never defined by measurement, but always by reference to previously-drawn shapes. ................ The problem arises when you move from 5-step geometry to 46-step geometry! :- ) Dr. Damen also reverse-engineers the AutoCAD sequence leading to this formation: In fact, some of Damen's reconstructions involve over 70 (!!) steps and then match the final crop layout precisely. I don't know:  maybe AutoCAD can automate this process through geometry-recognition algorithms.  :- )  If so, somebody let me know.  But assuming it can't, Zef Damen has one whale of a knack for pattern recognition. ................... This presents an incredible puzzle. How could human beings, hoaxing these circles, construct them (in 6 hours of darkness) so as to match such intricate geometrical patterns? For example, how do hoaxers get the "sweep" of the circular angles so consistent with respect to other circles in the diagram and with respect to the 46-fold geometry? Damen also notes that in the final diagrams, "superfluous parts are often removed" and in the field, this would be impossible! On the other hand, Damen also points out that most of the crop circle layouts are not quite precise: they are a foot or two off here and there. If they were being done by advanced civilizations, why wouldn't such a civilization use computers and therefore avoid such imprecisions? The crop circles seem too good to be done by humans, and seem not precise enough to be done by higher beings or transcendent beings. What a puzzle. Cheers, jemanji images: http://www.zefdamen.nl/CropCircles/Reconstructions/2008/HoneyStreet08/ho... http://www.zefdamen.nl/CropCircles/Reconstructions/2008/HoneyStreet08/ho... http://www.zefdamen.nl/CropCircles/Reconstructions/2008/SouthField08/sou...

Piece Mobility

In math terms, the team is calculating the “delta” between the value of an 850 OPS catcher at league minimum and the value of an 850 OPS 1b/DH at league minimum.
In non-math terms, if you have Yogi Berra or Johnny Bench, you're going to win a lot of championships. :- ) Give me a catcher who bats fourth and wins MVP's, and I will return flags on your investment. ……………….. The current discussion over Jeff Clement's proper position gives D-O-V a chance to get on its soapbox and remind that VORP/$ doesn't capture the effects of putting Johnny Bench on a baseball team (yes, I know that Clement isn't yet Johnny Bench). ………………….. A chessmaster doesn't just look around the board and play the one threat that looks good at the moment. GLORP! WHATEVER you do, don't live move-to-move. "Move quick so you'll have a lot of time to regret your mistakes," we geeks say ... a virtuoso chess player positions himself to maximize the potential threats and opportunities in a snowballing effect. A poker champion doesn't simply push all in, because he's got two pair to your straight draw. He positions himself to take all your money, not just the $70 in the pot at the moment. Grandmasters — at any game — are thinking in terms of sequences. Not in terms of what looks best for this one turn. Erik Bedard and Johann Santana aren't "captured" by how much performance they leave you with, after you subtract their salary performance out. Also to be considered is their effect on your other 24 roster slots — across a roster-sequence of many years. . === Start With Bench, You'll Figure Out the Rest Eventually === You play 25-man-roster chess in a completely different way if you have ARod at SS or Yogi Berra at catcher. 1B/LF/RF are now 10-year parking slots for whichever bad boy you can nab in a particular year. This provides agility and in practical terms, your teams are going to be better after taking into consideration the limits on your opportunities. Because LF was open for the Reds, and they didn't have Raul Ibanez or Richie Sexson frozen there, they could stay on their toes until they found the mecha-Godzilla George Foster. Because you haven't had to lock yourself into a 120-OPS+ guy at 1B and LF, you can try for more. ………………. Your flexibility to fit in a glove man like Omar is different if your #4 hitter is the catcher, and your #5-6 hitters are at 1B/LF; your entire 10-year roster is vastly more fluid and agile. You can respond to shifting terrain much more effectively. ………………… This was the case for the Johnny Bench Reds — they moved all sorts of players in and around him. They started off "excellent," in the Menke / Tolan years, and got constantly better from there, until they spiralled off into a baseball universe that was never seen before or since. (Show me another offense that was 1st in triples, homers, walks, SB's …1st in EVERYTHING.) Johnny Bench positioned the 1969-1977 Reds to shuffle their roster until they were simply ridiculous. Of course, the Reds had a Carlos Triunfel or two ready to add along the way, in LF and RF … . === Hard To Make A Mistake That Way, Dept. === Another important Game Theory insight from chess: a position might be theoretically winning, but unwinnable in practical terms. It's important to understand that (all) GM's will make mistakes. But not nearly as many, if they have Yogi Berra behind the plate! Maybe a computer can take Kasparov's pawn gambit and hack through the variations to defend itself and win the endgame, but a human can't. In chess, you try to reach positions that you, as a human, won't botch in the practical world. In baseball, there is the stoploss aspect to consider. When you are shuffling Olivos and Riveras through the position, you are always eligible for 50-OPS+ disasters. This affects not only your offensive totals, but also your team psyche. A team with a problem at catcher is a team with a problem in the pennant race. Why not create positions in which it is hard to fail? A team with a great catcher has a hard time constructing a lousy offense. . === Not That Kind of Swag, Dept. === Conversely, when your catcher is a superstar who owns the team — Berra, Pudge, Piazza, Bench — the entire team persona is that of swagger. We are nine miles afield from Math Club analysis here — but you show me a team with a truly great catcher, and 80% of the time I'll show you a team that thought it owned baseball. Carter with the Mets, the Marlins' miracle year, the Berra Yankees of course, the Big Red Machine, the Dodgers in their Piazza heyday, the Munson Yankees, etc etc. Don't let math blind you to the fact that pro sports are vicarious wars, fought between men, men who have more/less self-belief depending on circumstances. There are certain kinds of players who are the Straw Who Stirs The Drink, and a catcher who wins an MVP is definitely that kind of player. ………………… A catcher who is an MVP candidate with the bat, that's probably the only kind of player I value more than a Bob Gibson or Felix Hernandez. A chessplayer attacks when his piece mobility — his options — exceed those of his opponent's. A GM with a great catcher is a GM with the responsibility to win multiple World Series titles. I don't know if Jeff Clement is a great catcher, but I certainly am alert to the possibility, if I'm Jack Zduriencik. Take care of your 120 RBI at the catcher slot, and there's no telling how many opportunities you'll be able to pick-and-choose from among each winter's outfielders. Cheers, jemanji .............. image:  http://www.equilibrix.com/fieldofdreams/images/0606johnny_bench.jpg

Wine Sulfites

A friend of mine recently mentioned that she can't drink red wine because it has sulfites in it., and they give her headaches. I was a bit startled because pretty much all wine has sulfites, either naturally, as a byproduct of the fermentation process, or as a preservative.

In 1987 the U. S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) began requiring that any food that has more than 10 parts per million of sulfites needs a warning label that says "contains sulfites." Sulfites are frequently used as a food preservatives because they removes the oxygen that bacteria need to survive. Sulfites are commonly used in the production of wines, sausages, fruit juice and bagged salad products. Dried fruit in particular is preserved with sulfites, so anyone who has a problem with sulfites in wine will likely have a problem with dried fruit.

Winemakers add sulfites to prevent micro-organisms, oxidation, and, particularly in red wines, discoloration. The ancient Egyptians and Romans would burn elemental sulfur in wine amphoras, producing sulfite residues which dissolved when the wine was added. The sulfites added to wine dissolve into either bound sulfites, when the sulfites join with other compounds during fermentation and thus don't affect the flavor or odor of the wine, or free sulfites which remove oxygen and thus prevent damage to the wine. Aged red wines have very little residual sulfite, and dry whites two to three years after bottling also tend to have fewer sulfites.

People who are allergic to sulfites should avoid them, of course, especially people who are asthmatics, since they seem more susceptible than the general population. It is possible to avoid sulfites by sticking to wines that are certified as organic or biodynamic; those wines sulfite content are regulated and are generally required to be no more than 100 parts per million. Washington wineries produce a variety of organic wines.

Since aged red wines typically have lower amounts of sulfites than white wines. I suspect that my friend was reacting not so much to the sulfites, but suffered the so-called "Red Wine Headache," a phenomena that isn't completely understood, but which does affect many people. There's a good discussion of the issues here.

There's a third problem with sulfur and wine, sometimes, in that occasionally when you open a bottle of wine you'll catch a faint whiff of sulfur; it might remind you of rotten eggs, or of the scent of a just-struck match. Sometimes, all you have to do is decant the wine, and let it breathe a bit. But if the odor lingers, you might want to try "the penny trick," if you have an older, clean, genuinely copper penny, drop it into the wine. Alternatively, a gentle stir or two with a sterling silver spoon will work just fine. Either method causes the sulfur odor to dissipate, and you can enjoy your wine.

Blu Notes

The 2007 release of Below the Heavens properly introduced the world to L.A. based rapper Blu.

Being one of the underground’s most heralded albums Below the Heavens, produced by Exile, hasn’t seen a proper follow-up, though Blu did release a C.R.A.C. Knuckles album with veteran Ta-Raach last year. And even though that disc easily trumps most of what’s out there on the rap market these days, Blu was the highlight of that outing.

Being raised by a pastor helped Blu define the lyrical content of his raps. His rhymes aren’t always on positive topics, but they surely aren’t bogged down by trite gangsterism like so much rap. There are, of course, references to violence and occurrences on the street, but it’s a far cry from getting even with someone that’s wronged you.

It seems that without a full length deal in the works, Blu has been releasing a great deal of single tracks and appearing on mixes or compilations like this year’s Basic from Eastern European producer DJ Cadik. On Blu’s track, Cadik’s futuristic synthesizer gives the rapper a vastly different musical setting to work out his rhymes. But again, showing his immense talent, the beat doesn’t give Blu too much trouble.

The interesting thing about Blu’s appearance on Cadik’s newest disc is that Below the Heavans’ beats are so organic and soul drenched it’s startling to hear the rapper in new territories.

Basically what all of this means is that no matter with who or with what Blu’s working, it turns out to be a pretty decent track. And that’s really the hallmark of a great rapper – being able to churn out quality rhymes regardless of the situation or setting.

And as previously stated, the So-Cal rapper has been on a tear, releasing a great deal of music, so thanks again to 2 Dope Boyz for posting this video. There’s a little bit of Blu talking about the game and rapping in general, but it moves on to a performance of his. A bit short on the later, but nonetheless more than entertaining.

Here’s hoping for a new full length in the new year.

Madeira: A History of Abuse

Portugal is home to some of the most interesting wines in the world. It lends its name to the most popular of fortified wines, Port, but there's another star among its products that deserves as much attention. Whether it's in the distinct flavor, the unique method of crafting, or its special tie to American history, Madeira is a drink not to be missed. One of the things that sets Madeira apart from other fortified wines is its resilience. Granted, fortified wines are crafted to last much longer than regular vino, but Madeira beats them all. It is because of the strength of the grapes used to make it that Madeira is even around today, though the medical history of Madeira is a rocky one. The story starts in the mid-1500's when Portugal, like many European countries, was in the middle of a booming maritime exploration period. Long trade voyages to Asia, Africa and the New World made keeping wine on ships next to impossible. It was in this period that fortified wines became the standard. Wine makers found that adding a neutral cane sugar distillate to wines gave them a much longer shelf-life, especially on hot sea vessels. Today, wines are fortified with brandy, but that practice didn't come into wine making until the 19th century when Madeira was already falling out of vogue. At the time, the fortified wines from the island of Madeira were just called Port like everything else. The production of Madeira is inherently tied to sea travel in more ways than one. Some of the earliest batches were made using salty water-logged casks and exposed to extreme heat on the voyages to Asia. Where these elements would normally destroy a wine, they somehow improved Madeira. So much so, in fact, that producers began heating their casks on the island before even shipping them out. Still today, producers of Madeira use heat to create that distinct flavor, sometimes going as high 140 degrees Fahrenheit. Those modern batches artificially heated using steel casks and electric coils tend to produce imbalanced, unsubtle wines. Vintage Madeira, on the other hand, is much richer and more complex, made by aging the wine in wooden casks using nothing more than sunlight. This process can take decades. Madeira played an interesting role in American history as well. As anyone familiar with viticulture knows, wine grapes are picky about where they'll grow. In the 18th century, New England was one of the last places those warm-weather vines would take hold. As a result the colonies were big importers of fortified wines, making Madeira especially popular for its ability to survive the grueling journey across the Atlantic. When a sailor named John Hancock had a duties dispute concerning his most recent shipment of Madeira, the ship was seized and a riot broke out in Boston. In addition, many early American governmental conventions served Madeira to their delegates. Since then, Madeira has survived a world-wide vine plague that threatened to wipe out the vineyards of many famous grape varieties, an unfortunate fashion trend away from "island" wines like Port and Marsala, and the troubled early years of wine production in the American west. Today, Madeira isn't quite as popular as it was in the 18th century, but it's still well worth the adventure. Be it a strong, dry Sercial or a sweet, dark Malmsey, you've got to love the spirit of this spirit. The more you abuse it, the better it tastes. It truly is the drink of sailors and revolutionaries.

Politics 2.0

Our soon-to-be former President George W. Bush has talked a lot about legacy and how the writers of history will tell the story of leaders past. While Bush is typically referring to future revisionists painting him in a much kinder light than today's sentiment would likely reflect, the general concept of how we condense the complexities of major political events is an interesting one. While the cynic in me wants to call such reductiveness just another bit of evidence of the inherent laziness of people, I think there's more to it than that. Throughout the history of civilization people have faced the same problems over and over again. The scarcity of resource and the injustice of corruption aren't new or even unique enough to be anything more than footnotes after a few decades pass. This is why it will be interesting to see what people remember about the rise of Barack Obama. Even though there's been plenty of obligatory noise about him being the first black president, does anyone honestly believe that's the most historic thing about his career? All things considered, race is really low on the list of things that make Obama's election particularly notable. In time, I believe the man's political machine is going to be seen as being more impressive than the color of his skin. Which leads me to what is essentially the first truly modern political campaign of the 21st century. Obama is, without a doubt, the first Internet president. He raised a stupendous amount of money for his run at the White House using online donation systems and a sizeable portion of his electorate educated themselves with his professional-quality website. It's no coincidence that Obama got the Information Generation to vote by embracing their media. Seeing how well that worked for him, Obama has stuck to those guns, so far. Obama has been making weekly addresses via youtube, which itself is surreal on a number of levels. It's just bizarre that the President-Elect is using the same medium as every teenager with a digi-cam who records himself doing middling skateboard tricks, although Obama's videos are of a much higher quality. But that's not the only thing that makes these computer-side chats so odd. It's been an exceedingly long time since the American people have been frequently, directly addressed by the president. Since the advent of television, most of the time we get our presidents one step removed by the press conference format. Obama's team isn't just doing it this way because it's cheaper and easier, they're doing it for the message it sends. We get Barack Obama looking directly at the camera, working from his own script without any media filter whatsoever. It's the perfect combination of strict, glossy control and unabashed populism. So, here's the rub. Obama has come out swinging with loads of substantive commentary on relevant issues, all in a format that addresses the country directly. This is good, it's a step toward long-absent governmental transparency. Still, it'll go down in history as a flashy joke if Obama's administration doesn't make good on a sizeable portion of its promises. If things actually start to get better and the administration is a successful one, then Barack Obama's political organization will have changed American government drastically in one fell swoop.

Satanic Majesty's Request: Pentagram

Even though it only took Pentagram a year after its formation to record a single, their first full length took another ten years and change.

The never ending rotation of musicians in and out of the group probably contributed to the groups’ erratic recording schedule. But even with that, Pentagram remains a revered early ‘70s band that’s often credited with taking the Black Sabbath model and moving it forward.

Coupled with the sound of Sabbath, a strong Blue Cheer sound was evident – a kind of blues metal, more overt than Sabbath’s.

In 1998, an unauthorized compilation surfaced, prompting band members to again begin working on music. The culmination of this work resulted in the compilation First Daze, released in 2002, which is probably the recording most representational of the band’s musical bent, direction and taste.

With the relatively new found interest in the band, Pentagram has again taken to sporadic performances only fomenting fans lust for more music and information about a group that really has a convoluted history.

But because of this background, Pentagram has informed countless acts from Virginia including Clutch, Monster Magnet, The Obsessed, Place Of Skulls, Earthride and Saint Vitus.

Now serving to expand this influence a new film focused on head Pentagramer Danny Liebling is slated for release.

A trailer for Last Rites: The Fall and Rise of Bobby Liebling can be found on the 9.14 Pictures website here or here.

Tickets for their future concert appearance have recently gone on sale, but unfortunately, they’ve only scheduled a lone show for Brooklyn. But at least the documentary can keep fans occupied until Pentagram decides to mount a full scale tour.

Freeway the Frenetic Phenom

Everyone’s busy during the holidays, but some more so than others.

Freeway, after he’s wrapped up his holiday shopping, has promised to release a new track everyday for the month of December. And so far he’s kept his word. Right now, we’re obviously 23 days deep into his campaign with just over a week left.

Is there going to be a special edition for Christmas and New Year’s? We have to wait to find out. But until then you can head over to 2 Dope Boys for all of the posts.

Accompanying each post is usually a picture, but a few are paired with video. So far, my favorites gotta be Freeway’s freestyle from DJ Green Lantern’s show. Somehow he’s able to rap non-stop for a ridiculously long time. He trades off verses with Young Chris, but the video clocks in at about fifteen minutes.

Anyway, if you go here, you can find each of the posts pertaining to Freeway’s December presents. The lyrical content is what you might expect, but the sheer tenacity of this rapper to proclaim his rap prominence is pretty impressive. Some of the beats don’t seem as if they’d be album quality, but again the amount of work that’s gone into all of this is surprising.

And in an overall sense, these raptastic feats only point to the fact the hip hop might be the music that has actually utilized new technology to the utmost impact. You can’t find any rock bands putting out thirty tracks in a month. The Bouncing Souls wanted to release a single per month – but that has as of yet to materialize. So just keep listening for more presents.

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