Spectometer First Principles

One of the First Principles of the Spectometer:  When the ump says "Play Ball" the player with the ball is the pitcher.

In other words:  There is no quarterback ... no point guard ... no first serve ....

Unusual among sports, in baseball the offense does not initiate the action.  In order to take the action to the other team, the offense must respond and react to what the pitcher (who, after all, is part of the defense) is trying to do.

Put another way ... in order to play offense, the hitter must also play defense.  He must defend against what the pitcher is trying to do to dictate the outcome.  The pitcher holds the ball.  The pitcher initiates the play.

So what?

So ... the Spectometer ended up with two different approaches: (1) Production and (2) Plate Skills.  Production is when the hitter is able to take the action to the other team; Plate Skills are defending against what the pitcher is serving up.  Although one relates to the other, they are not always harmonious.

• Carlos Peguero is a classic example of a player who produces, but has no plate skills.  In our measures of Production, he's awesome.  In our measures of Plate Skills ... not so much.

• Luis Rodriguez is a classic example of the opposite.  Amazing Plate Skills.  He will be at the top of our measure of Plate Skills every time, but he hasn't ever had much success at turning them into Production.

Here's a football metaphor if that helps.  Plate Skills are like the linemen who control the line of scrimmage.  Production is like the skill players that move the ball up and down the field.  You can have one without the other and succeed.  But it sure as heck helps to have both.

***

And the next First Principle:  Age-arc matters.

It comes from experience, and from getting burned a few times.

(1) Beware the guy who is too old for his league.

(2) Keep an eye on the guy who is too young for his league.

(3) Adore the guy who is too young for his league and kicks patootie.

***

So ... put it all together and what do ya got?

PRODUCTION + PLATE SKILLS + AGE ARC = Guys with the best chance of MLB success as hitters

Shortly we'll get into the lists of guys who have had "Golden Years" ... demonstrating Production + Plate Skills + Age Arc.

Spoiler alert:  of the 12 guys in the Mariners organization who have had "Golden Years" and have been given a shot at MLB jobs (going back to 2001, that is), 10 have had MLB success (more or less) ... and the 11th is Wladimir Balentien, who is now absolutely crushing the NPB Central League to the tune of a .971 OPS.

The 12th is Jeff Clement.  [But Clement has his very own red flag, which we will get to.]