Pawlenty of Potential

     Tim Pawlenty is a classic Midwestern politician; conservative, self-depricating, and mild-mannered. When he took over the governorship of Minnesota from ex-pro wrestler Jesse Ventura, he walked into a governor's mansion full of egocentric eccentricities; gigantic portraits, jewel-studded furniture, etc. He removed them all and replaced them with the trappings of an average middle-class family. However, where many politicians attempt to don the persona of a middle-class everyman, Pawlenty actually owns it. He was born to a blue-collar family in the working class city of St. Paul, Minnesota. His dad was a pro-union trucker, he grew up going to public schools, and even put himself through college waiting tables. This connection to the "Joe Six-Pack" electorate, along with his fiscal conservative credentials, got him into the governor's office of Minnesota.

     However, there are two issues with running a national campaign on your middle-class upbringing. Although personal history as a platform is a popular Republican tactic, Republicans are being forced to revise their tried adn tested tactics this time around. With an increasingly erratic and reactionary voters base, vitriolic speeches and fist-shaking are stealing attention from the less performance-oriented candidates (how else do you explain why Trump managed to top the polls for that week?). Pawlenty is not an angry candidate or a emotive one. In fact, his persona has been described as "goofy" and "mild-mannered" by Minnesota voters; not the kind of big-ego swagger you expect from a national candidate.

     Although he's received some criticism for his pragmatic approach to voters and constituents, he usually handles it in a way that's more Obama than Boehner. At a recent press-conference in Adel, Iowa, Pawlenty was approached by a Republican voter that told him that the party needs to be bold (a common sentiment among the GOP voters), and asked if Pawlenty was up to the fight. In response, Pawlenty smiled patiently and said, "There's a difference between being loud and being strong." He made the point that conservatives already agree with one another, but the party needs a confident, non-aggressive voice to build consensus with those that don't. (At this point I had to look and make sure that Tim Pawlenty was actually running as a Republican, because comments like that are totally out of character for a GOP candidate.) It's those moments when he gives in to the criticism, when he attempts to feign anger and indignation, that he comes off as false, even foolish. At a Tea Party rally he quipped about Obama wearing adult diapers to intelligence meetings, and adopted an urgent tone to his voice when speaking to the larger crowds. Amid actual snarlers adn teeth-gnashers, his own attempts seem forced and inauthentic.One reason he may be giving in to the rhetoric are fears of a representative of his own state, Michelle Bachmann. Bachmann's larger than life (and often totally asinine) proclamations are exactly the kind of pomp and fanfare that the Republican voters love, and if she enters the race it may negatively impact Pawlenty's own fledgling campaign.

     For all of the concerns about Pawlenty's understated power pf personality, he does have a proven conservative track record as governor of Minnesota. When his "good ole boy" platform plays out he will no doubt turn to the massive tax cuts and cuts to discretionary spending he put in place in his home state. He also took on the incredibly power mass transit union in Minneapolis and, after a 44-day strike, won. He'll point to his fiscal conservatism and his smaller-government, larger-local-control record of policy implementation. What he won't point to is the alienation of a large portion of his Democratic constituency or the nearly $5 billion deficit that Minnesota struggles with today, and many blame on Pawlenty. He won't mention the nearly $2 billion he took, as governor, from Obama's stimulus package, or the questionable accounting measures he took to balance the budget. He also won't mention that in 2007 he campaigned enthusiastically against Global Warming, calling it "the most important [issue] of our time." (He reneged on his position in a May 6th debate on Fox News, calling it a "mistake" and apologizing.)

     My guess is that we'll continue to see transformations from Pawlenty as the GOP field congeals and he finds his national demeanor. Other than Mitt Romney, who is the current front-runner and no stranger to the national stage, I feel that Pawlenty has the greatest potential for receiving the GOP nomination. It is precisely because of his understated approach, his blue-collar background, and his calm demeanor that I would bet on his chances. However, if he gives in to the bluster and teeth-gnashing of some groups within his voting public, he will fail to distinguish himself among his candidates, lose his authenticity, and ultimately lose the nomination.

www.time.com

www.timpawlenty.com

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