2010 Giants vs. 2011-12 Mariners - Creating Luck

Q.  Any way to create that luck -- to fill your roster with Huffs, Burrells and Sanchezes, as opposed to filling it with Washburns, Silvas, Ibanezes and Batstas?

A.  By not paying 100% for players who just finished their max level performances.

Stars & Scrubs -- and good roto management -- involves stuffing your roster with players you could get lucky on!

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Q.  Like the Giants had a chance to get lucky on Aubrey Huff?

A.  Huff, going into 2010, had a career ERA+ of 115 -- and several seasons at 130.  Unfortunately, in 2009 he'd been at 81.

The Giants signed him, as a 33-year-old, for $3 mills -- not as a $/VORP value; he'd been an RLP.  They signed him for the reason diametrically opposed to $/VORP "the correct move is X" analysis:  the Giants saw a proven MLB (TM) player who might play much, much better than he did in 2009.

They made a judgment call.

They didn't think that Huff was a given to hit .290/.385/.500.  But they used their intuition to decide that there was a good shot that he had something left (as Zduriencik did with, e.g., Casey Kotchman).

What the Giants did not do, was pay $7M for a 33-year-old who had posted $7M performances the last three years -- and who would be incapable of outperforming his contract.

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Q.  Any other way to create big years from your players?

A.  James' principle, discovered in his book on Win Shares, was that Cinderella teams get "LEADERSHIP performances" from three (3) stars having exciting years -- and the rest of the team, "caught up in that excitement," locks in and has big years together.

James, researching what, a dozen? teams like the 1967 Sox, realized that these three (3) Leaders tended not to be imported veterans.  They tended to be established, young players who took it up a notch.  Some, like the 1975 Sox, had a ROY or two.

In April, the Giants' young flamethrowers had a 2.75 ERA (!) and the entire ballclub had a 173/76 control ratio.  Watching those awesome SP performances, of course the batters were going to grind their bat handles into sawdust and start pushing across some runs.

About 50 games in, Buster Posey arrived and after a quick acclimation, the dude slugged .700 with a .466 OBP in July.  You can imagine if Justin Smoak started nailing one ball after another off the Hit It Here Cafe.  By the time the stretch drive and playoffs arrived, the Giants were looking forward to the bright lights.

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Q.  Is Zduriencik good at that?

A.  I think so, yes.

He's got to be close to the bottom of the box on NL Central players he has double-file-folders on, and he's got an instinct for the Russ Branyans and, yes, Casey Kotchman types who come in with the prospect of outperforming their salaries. 

He's not married to the idea of paying $8M for a Washburn type who has been worth exactly $8M.

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Part 4

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