Senate Race Update: IN, MO, VA, FL

Still more tossups ... and a maybe?

The  U.S. Senate race in Indiana got turned sideways when State Treasurer Richard Mourdock rallied Tea Partiers and anti-establishment types to win a hard-fought Republican primary over veteran Sen. Richard Lugar (and we do mean "veteran" ... he was first elected to the school board in 1964).

Lugar would have been a lock for reelection, but Mourdock has struggled to consolidate the natural Republican edge in the Hoosier state, and opponent Rep. Joe Donnelly has run strong.

And Lugar continues to have a role in the race.  A pro-Mourdock political action committee has sent out a mailer indicating a Lugar endorsement of Mourdock, when, in fact, what Lugar said is that he wants to see the Republicans have a majority in the next Senate, a careful wording that did not personally embrace Mourdock.

Lugar did not like the mailing, and it provoked a statement from his camp disavowing it and, again, emphasizing the distance between Lugar and Mourdock.

Since it is Lugar's partisans that Mourdock needs to bring into his fold, it was poor judgment from Mourdock's side to end up highlighting the lack of embrace.

But ... Lugar did say he would "hold his nose" (not his words) and vote for Mourdock in order to boost the chances of a Republican Senate, and it is likely that most Republican Lugar supporters will end up in the same place.

The most recent poll (there haven't been many) shows Mourdock picking up ground.

New York Times forecast: Donnelly 52% chance of winning.

***

The other state in which the Republican candidate appeared to be muffing a golden opportunity is in Missouri, where Rep. Todd Akin (R) fell into campaign purgatory after controversial comments about the likelihood of conception following sexual assault.

Akin soldiered on, using the national calls for his removal from the ballot to help boost grass-roots conservative support.

It probably wouldn't be enough against a formidable opponent, but Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) is unpopular, dogged by ethical issues and burdened by her vote for Obamacare.

Both look like they will have trouble expanding beyond their respective bases.  They can't both end up in the mid-40s (absent a third-party or write-in surge that doesn't appear to be forthcoming), so it's hard to guess where things will end up.

RealClearPolitics.com Average: McCaskill 45.8, Akin 43.5.

New York Times forecast: McCaskill 83% chance of winning.

***

Have former Gov. Tim Kaine and former Gov. and Sen. George Allen been running for the Senate in Virginia forever?  Maybe.  But their "clash of the titans" doesn't seem to be going anywhere other than the trenches.

After months of dead-heat results, Kaine appeared to benefit from the general Democratic trend in September, but whatever cushion he gained then seems to have faded.  Kaine has held a slight lead in most polls, but after the first presidential debate the Old Dominion seems to be reverting back a bit toward its historical conservative tilt, and that ought to help Allen.

RCP Average: Kaine 47.6, Allen 45.4

New York Times forecast: Kaine 80% chance of winning.

***

Allen is the son of a football legend (his father was coach of the Rams and Redskins), while the GOP candidate in Florida is the great-grandson of baseball legend Connie Mack.

Rep. Connie Mack IV (R) has struggled to connect at the plate, however, despite what was considered a promising chance against Sen. Bill Nelson (D), who is generally not considered a political powerhouse.

Although Mack has led in a poll or two, almost all the surveys in heavily-polled Florida show Nelson holding a significant lead.  But while Nelson appeared to open up a double-digit edge during the Democrats' September bump, Mack seems to have cut into the lead in recent polls.  Mack was also credited with a solid performance in the campaign's only debate.

Even so, Florida remains the lonely hold out as the only close race that RealClearPolitics.com has yet to move into the "tossup" classification.

RCP Average: Nelson 47.5, Mack 40.8

New York Times forecast: Nelson 98% chance of winning.

'The Walking Dead' premieres to record numbers

Show picks up in a very interesting place.

If you've already seen season three's premiere of AMC's The Walking Dead, then you're totally fine reading what follows. If not? Spoiler alert. I understand many of us DVR stuff during the week and then catch up on weekends, so just don't read any more and you're good. Come back later though to comment, OK?

Kudos to the writers of The Walking Dead for finding a perfect way to move the story forward and give it an entirely new dynamic. And we were watching, in record numbers: An estimated 10.9 million of us tuned in, a basic-cable drama ratings record.The third season premiere of The Walking Dead was a whopper. Rick is clearly in charge now of the group, and it's been seven months since we last saw them (and one long, tough winter apparently). They're desperately looking for food and shelter, especially since Lori is due to give birth very soon.

This group is organized, and they know what they need to do: Kill walkers. Oh do they kill walkers -- yikes!  So many zombie walkers died as the group tried to take over a large prison that it almost felt like I was watching a video game of The Walking Dead. Definitely overkill (so to speak), but it's what we've all come to expect with this series.

That's not what made me excited about season three of The Walking Dead. What did? The characters. I feel like finally, after two seasons, we're going to see some serious character development of previously minor players (Carol comes to mind). I need to care what happens to each of these people, not just Rick and Lori, you know?

Fans, what did you think about this week's season premiere of The Walking Dead? Are you excited for the rest of the season and what comes next?

How to teach reading

Six steps for the beginning reader.

I was fielding questions from a young mom the other day on homeschooling. She and her husband had their heart set on homeschooling, but figured they would send their child to school for a couple of years first so he could learn to read. When I asked why, she admitted that she didn't think she could teach reading and figured the classroom was a better place to master that skill. Judging from the questions and comments I get, a lot of people are intimidated by reading instruction. I taught both my boys to read. One child was easy, while the other was difficult, so I feel I have a pretty good understanding of the methods that work.

There are plenty of quality reading programs out there that can walk you through it. My easy reader didn't need them because he taught himself to read when he was three. The programs didn't quite fit the needs of my difficult reader, so I had to come up with my own plan. Since he is highly methodical and logical like me, I approached it in a logical way.

Step 1: Master the consonant and short vowel sounds. Practice CVC words (consonant-vowel-consonant) like cat, hat, bad, dog. Continue with this practice until the child can read these words fluently and blend the sounds well and naturally.

Step 2: Introduce the long vowel in conjunction with the silent “E.” Also introduce the plural -s and -es. Many reading programs do these toward the end, but I found it more useful to introduce following CVC fluency.

Step 3: Introduce the initial blends, such as br-, st-, ch-, etc. There are 10 common initial two-letter blends. We focused on a couple of week, joining them with Vowel -Consonant endings, such as sl-ug, sn-ap, etc.

Step 4: Introduce the 12 common ending blends, including -nk and -st, such as in ju-nk and lo-st. We covered a couple a week, while still reviewing out initial blends.

Step 5: Introduce the 21 digraphs, such as “oi,” “ou,” “sh,” and “oa.” We also introduce the four R-controlled sounds at this time – or, ar, air, er. Lots and lots of practice, using these sounds in the beginning, middle and end of words.

Step 6: Once fluency in the common blends and digraphs is reached with simple words, we begin to work on compound words (“cupcake”). We also learn how to break down long words into their parts so we can sound them out (ex.: remember = re*mem*ber. Distaster= dis*tast*er).

After fluency is reached in these six steps, we mainly focus on lots and lots of reading out loud together. I choose engaging books about one level ahead of the new reader. We work out hard words together, taking turns reading paragraphs so he can hear and see how the words flow with fluency. Once reading and comprehension is pretty solid, we begin integrating quiet reading. He keeps a notebook nearby to jot down any words that give him trouble so we can work them out later.

The joy of mama-made

Homemade Halloween costumes mean more

I never owned a store bought Halloween costume as a kid. That's probably a good thing, considering back in the late '70s and early '80s, store bought costumes were made of plastic featuring easy-tear seams and rigid plastic masks that could slice off your nose if mishandled.

Nowadays, the costumes are still low quality, but made of much more comfortable and durable fabric. I've bought a few over the years at the after-Halloween sales to add to the dress up bin, but we never, ever use them for the actual holiday.

Homemade costumes hold a special place in my heart. As a child, we would begin tossing around costume ideas in August. The topic got us through many a long car ride with my mom, as we came up with ideas and worked on the details together. 

Come October, mom or my aunt disappeared into the garage or sewing room, depending on what we came up with, and emerged with a gorgeous DIY costume made from scraps around the house. We cherished those costumes, and many of them are still around being worn by my boys and nephew.

We keep the same tradition alive with my kids. Right now I have a paper mache astronaut helmet on my work table. I've almost finished the Apollo space suit, we just need to schedule a trip to the hardware store for some hoses. My eldest is leaning toward costumes that don't require too much dressing up this year, so he chose the Pokemon trainer Ash. His paper mache Pokeball is finished and we just need to hunt down a red hat at the thrift store to complete his look.

Some years the costumes are better than others, it's true, depending on the time and resources available. Yet, my kids can remember every single Halloween costume they ever had. They happily reminiscence about past costume planning and creating sessions. We aren't just making costumes, we're making memories. You can't buy those at Walmart.

Public schools aren't in the education business

One more reason why our education system sucks.

It's true, my family has opted out of the educational machine. The cookie cutter, assembly line-style of today's public schools is a disaster I want no part of. We tried it out for two years and I am even a former public school educator, so I know from whence I speak. Years of bad band-aid policies, on the federal, state and district levels have left the system not broken, but utterly destroyed.

First, it's important to understand that all the testing now required isn't for the benefit of the students, but for the benefit of the bureaucrats. It doesn't measure student progress as much as it measures how well the bureaucrats are performing in drawing up their endless policies. Teachers are not performing poorly. We can't even begin to judge teacher performance because they are no longer allowed to truly teach, they must just play proctor to endless testing and test preparation.

I believe we need to rethink the educational system. There is no "one size fits all" solution. The first step should be to abolish age segregated classrooms. Not all children perform at the same level in all subjects. For example, a six-year-old and an eight-year-old may read on the same level, while the same six-year-old performs math on a five year level and the eight year old does math on a 10 year level. Grouping students by their abilities in each subject would allow all students to learn at their own pace.

Abolishing age segregation could have the added benefit of mitigating some bullying. Perceived weaknesses and differences make kids into bullies or result in being bullied. It's easy to spot the differences in a same age classroom. If all classes contain a variety of ages, you will see less difference-oriented bullying because it becomes more difficult for kids to isolate those whom are different. You will also end up with a class of highly varied maturity levels, so those that are more mature will naturally keep the under-mature bullying personalities in check.

Abolishing age segregation is just one step we could take to reforming education in our country. The benefits listed above are just a few benefits to this system. Yes, it becomes harder to test students for achievement with this system, which may hurt the bureaucrats, but it will help the kids. And really, aren't they the ones we are supposed to be educating anyway?

Pop Culture Happenings: "Carrie" Remake Gets A Tease and more buzzworthy dumps

 

It is appropriately the right time of the year for horror film remakes. While I don't see a huge need for most remakes, horror is one of the more notorious genres when it comes to cannibalizing their own films. So here is Chloe Moretz in the straight-to-the-climax tease for the remake of the 1976 Brian De Palma classic, "Carrie." 
 
More goodness to come after the jump.
 
 
So Felix Baumgartner jumped out of a balloon from 24 miles up in space. Watch it and realize you were alive when man broke the sound barrier using gravity and his huge massive balls. 
 

Felix Baumgartner's supersonic freefall from 128k' - Mission Highlights

 
 
Adam Scott has been teasing strange images via Twitter for a few weeks now, and last Thursday night, what he had been titling "The Greatest Event In Television History" aired on Adult Swim. It really is worth the 12 minutes if you have them. Just let it wash over you. Also, bonus side-by-side of the finished product.
 

The Greatest Event in Television History (Special)

 
 
"Django Unchained" is looking to be a truly great Christmas film. Take the family and just enjoy good old fashioned family fun. Because Quentin Tarantino is generally known for family fare, and this movie about an escaped slave during the early Colonial days, check out this new trailer and get excited.
 

Django Unchained Official Trailer #2 (2012) - Quentin Tarantino Movie HD

 
 
Even though an actual bacon shortage is highly unlikely, Nick Offerman used his lovely persona of Ron Swanson to give the world this public service announcement. Enjoy words of wisdom from the manliest man in all mandom.
 

Ron Swanson: Bacon Shortage PSA

 
 
It is bothersome how good this mix sounds. That is all. (Gangnam Style + Ghostbusters for those who require prompting)
 

PSY vs Ghostbusters - Gangnam Busters - Mashup by FAROFF

 

Winter garden

Four season gardens in cold climates.

Lately I've been focused on putting up the summer vegetables and cleaning out the garden beds as the weather cools, but that doesn't mean the growing season is over. Not all of my beds are bare and dormant under a protective layer of mulch. No, a few beds are still bursting with succulent greenery, and will continue to do so for a few months more.

My all time favorite winter green is kale. It can withstand cold and frost while still continuing to put on new leaves well into the winter months. If you live in a mild area you may be able to harvest fresh kale into the following spring. I use kale much as you would spinach.

It makes an excellent cooked green, but it also works well in winter salads. Even in my cold zone 5 climate, kale does well with only minimal mulch protection. I can enjoy it much longer by making an impromptu cold frame with an old window.

Broccoli raab is another fall and early winter favorite. Unlike regular broccoli, there isn't the issue with poor head production during the short days. Both leaves and the small broccoli sprouts are edible, so I lose nothing if I must harvest early. It survives light frost with no protection and can continue growing in colder weather with a cold frame. It continue to produce for months if I only harvest the florets.

Lettuce, radishes and other cool-season greens also do well, although they do die once it gets really cold. Anything that needs long days performs poorly, since we get less than eight hours of sunlight during the heart of winter this far north.

 

Sam and Andre make a break for it!

The tale of a less than successful school day "escape attempt."

The street bordered by a sidewalk on the foreground is Terracewood Drive; Southwood Elementary is in the background. One day on that sidewalk a kid whose name I can’t remember (so let’s call him Sam) made a break and inspired another kid named Andre to join him. Here is the story.

You could see Terracewood Drive from my classroom, which was located in the wing closest to the entrance/exit you see here which lets out onto the playground. One fine day we were going about our daily routine when my teacher Mrs. Devine and her assistant Heidi began talking excitedly to one another. The exact words I can’t remember, but the gist went something like:

Heidi: “Look, that’s Sam!  What’s he doing up there?” 

Devine: “He’s running away.”

As Devine and Heidi debated what to do, I took a look myself. Sure enough, there was Sam making a break for it up on that sidewalk. Headed east to heaven knows where.  I did not know Sam well at all, so I can give no reason why he was making a break for it unless he was having a very bad day.

I do know something about the kid in my class who suddenly said in a cheeky tone “Bye” and tore out of my classroom to join Sam, though.

His name was Andre.   A wild kid known for antics like taking his shirt and coat off and dancing around on a cold winter’s day as we all went to board our transport home, dismissively calling locations on a map “garbage” to the hilarity of his classmates (and irritation of his teachers) or giving Heidi “the bird” from the window of his school bus before it left one day.  It’s no surprise he wound up on the pilot program named “Family Focus,” which was run out of Southwood back then, nor is it a surprise that he decided to join Sam in making a break for it.     

Maybe I should join him, I thought as Andre vanished out the classroom door bound for the east exit only a dozen or so steps away. But they will probably catch me, I glumly concluded.  So I dutifully stood there as Heidi conferred with another assistant in the hall and Devine kept an eye on the rest of her flock. Unless my memory is completely off kilter, Heidi and the assistant out in the hall (another lady) even debated calling the police!  

My memory is dim, but I think both Andre and Sam got nabbed sooner rather than later and got in a heap of trouble. And that was the end of that.

When is your best time to work out?

Various time frames can offer advantages and disadvantages.

It’s not unusual for a new gym goer to try to figure out the best time to work out. Many factors can come into play, and various time frames can offer advantages and disadvantages. At the gym I go to, we have a dedicated group of people who work out in the early mornings. Many of these people have work and family obligations. They don’t want to give up family time to go to the gym after work, so they get up early to fit it in.   

That free time after work can be a strong advantage. This group doesn’t tend to hang out and socialize after the work out. Some gym goers might miss that aspect. For people who are night owls, working out in the early morning may seem impossible. 

Noon is another popular time to head to the gym. People who work close by their gyms may find they can easily slip out for an hour or so and work out. Working out at noon can provide a welcome break in the day. When I’ve done this, I always found myself returning to work feeling refreshed and de-stressed. On the downside however, depending on job responsibilities, it might be difficult to break away for lunch. 

 

The hours immediately after work brings in another large group. Going to the gym before going home can be a nice transition. This timeframe seems to work best for people without family obligations. 

 

Other people will go home from work, spend some time there, and then head out later in the evening. A downside is that a workout before bedtime may make it difficult to sleep. This option may work best for night owls. Other people like to mix up the times they work out. Mixing up your work out time will challenge your body, and you’ll have a chance to meet new people. 

 

Senate Race Update: AZ, NV, HI

More tossups

A few states have moved to tossup status because Republican candidates have proven to be more durable and appealing than expected (Connecticut, Pennsylvania), and there are few races that have gone the other way, with Arizona being the best example.

In that race, former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona (D) has turned his race against Rep. Jeff Flake (R) into one of the closest of the year.  The Republican open seat of retiring Sen. John Kyl was expected to be a relatively easy win for Flake, but Carmona has proven stronger than expected, particularly with a strong Hispanic vote in the state.

Two recent polls show Carmona taking a narrow lead, after Flake had led throughout the campaign.

With Carmona closing the gap, Flake launched a series of very personal negative ads, aimed at Carmona's temperament and treatment of women.  (Ironically, some of the concerns were initially raised when the Democratic Senate was considering Carmona's appointment as Surgeon General by Republican President George W. Bush.  Carmona was an independent when appointed by Bush, but is now a Democrat.)

Arizona appears to be a Romney state, so the national winds would appear likely to bolster Flake, and the usual outcome when both sides descend into "scorched earth" campaigns is that the candidate better known at the beginning will hold on to a bit more trust, unless he or she is hit with allegations that strike at the heart of their appeal.  If that's the case, then Flake probably has the edge.

RealClearPolitics.com Average: Flake 43.3, Carmona 42.5

New York Times forecast: Flake 62% chance of winning

***

In Nevada, on the other hand, the Democrats have had a harder time getting traction, although the race remains close.

Appointed Sen. Dean Heller (R) seems to be maintaining some breathing room over Rep. Shelley Berkley (D).  Although the state is hotly contested on the presidential level, and President Obama has held narrow leads in most of those polls, Heller has held an edge over Berkley in almost every poll.

Berkley had been hoping that her alleged ethical issues would not be a major factor, but investigations and other issues appear to be contributing to negative favorability ratings.  As a result, she continues to run more weakly than Obama in Nevada polling, and that appears to be making the difference for Heller.

RCP Average: Heller 45.8%, Berkley 41.0%

New York Times forecast: Heller 71% chance of winning

***

Finally, a state that could have moved to "tossup," but hasn't, is Hawaii.  Former Gov. Linda Lingle (R) was expected to make a run at Rep. Mazie Hirono (D).  The open seat is historically Democratic, but Lingle was a popular governor who had actually defeated Hirono decisively for her first term in that office in 2002.

But public polls have showed Hirono holding a double-digit lead in the state in which President Obama spent much of his early life.

Lingle, however, claims a new internal poll shows her within striking distance.  Obviously, there's no way to verify that the poll is accurate, but we don't entirely discount the idea that Lingle could make a move.  She's proven to be savvy in the past.

RCP Average: not enough data

New York Times forecast: Hirono 98% chance of winning

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