M's Hotshots at the AFL
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Spec is keeping us clued in, as is his wont, to the kids' celebrity tours in Arizona. Here's a stats table. Mike Zunino is slugging .630 in a week's worth of games. Nick Franklin is 8-for-16 with an .813 SLG. Stefen Romero is 4-for-9. James Paxton, who's always been my fave of the Big Three, probably has the best stats of any pitcher down there.
I read a statement somewhere that AFL stats mean exactly the same as batting practice stats. This goes to the same issue that we take on in the next article: if I don't think much of a given piece of evidence, do I get to declare that it is not evidence? Spoiler alert: the definition of "evidence" is a teeny weeny bit different from what some guys seem to think that it is.
The AFL is most certainly not batting practice. You'd be fine taking an AB against a pitching coach throwing 75 MPH BP pitches. You wouldn't be as fine, taking an AB against Tyler Chatwood in Arizona.
Admittedly, you aren't going to make a lot of soup off of the AFL stats oyster; we all know that. But if you'd bother to take a look at the stats leaders from previous seasons in the AFL, you'll find that they're packed with players who were shortly about to do very, very well. In 2005, the total base leaders included Dan Uggla, Matt Kemp, Howie Kendrick, and Stephen Drew; Kemp's performance was a real harbinger of a sudden leap in his prospect status. In 2006, TB leaders included Ryan Braun, Ben Zobrist and Mark Reynolds. etc. etc.
We're not saying that you revamp all your prospect lists based on 100 AB's in the AFL. But Jack Zduriencik doesn't fly down there because the games are meaningless. It means one thing if Mike Zunino slugs .600, and another thing if you see him go 2-for-43 with 20 strikeouts.
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John Sickels takes the top 30 WAR players this year and revisits the way he graded them as minor leaguers. Last year, he did the same thing.
There are a decent number of Jose Bautistas, Robinson Canos and Shane Victorinos in there. But overall, the lists of top WAR players of 2011-12 were packed with more "pedigreed" minor leaguers than I'd have guessed.
Sickels' WAR-in-review articles --- > cause Dr. D to bump up the value of a John Sickels A/B+ grade. Dr. D isn't saying that he now lives and dies with these grades. But it's worth considering that Jose Bautista is perhaps more unusual than we'd believed. Perhaps SSI needs to spend a bit less time arguing that A/B+ grades aren't absolute, and a bit more time listening to see who's getting those grades.
Nine M's make Sickels' most recent [top 120 in baseball -- more-or-less].
- James Paxton, LHP
- Danny Hultzen, LHP
- Taijuan Walker, RHP
- Victor Sanchez, RHP
- Brandon Maurer, RHP* (!!)
- Mike Zunino, C
- Nick Franklin, SS/2B
- Brad Miller, SS
- Stefen Romero, 3B/2B*
Sickels may wind up giving six Mariners the coveted grades of B+ or better, positioning them for (?) enhanced shots at WAR leaderboards in a few years. You know about the Big Three; Sickels has Zunino, Franklin and Miller at #8, #16 and #25 in baseball, respectively. Among hitters. That's basically six Mariners in the top fifty.
Maybe Gordon, or Spectator, can pick one additional minor leaguer and then we'll get to slobber over an Org Top Ten that is composed entirely of BBA Top 100 type players. ;- )
Who rounds out the top 10? If Carter Capps is still eligible as a prospect, he's my first thought. If they'd consider him for the rotation, you might toy with the idea of putting him first on the org list. Maybe Spec will argue for Jack Marder, a 2B/C who had a 1000 OPS at High Desert. Are you guys still in love with Andrew Carraway? Jason Churchill likes Tyler Hicks, a teenage lefty with tons of K's. Come the All-Star Break next year, people may be wishing they'd given Alex Liddi more love; he's got quite a shot to pull a Kyle Seager in the new stadium.
ARod's Splits against .... Karma
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Fangraphs stepped forward about 1.5 bases (out of a possible 4) by hiring Jeff Sullivan. There's no telling where the dude will take that site -- and they don't even know it yet.
He takes on the ARod catastrophe with his usual light touch and flexible mind, and immediately runs into a classic sabertista (MGL, Oct 18 at 6:12 pm) who takes offense to the use of any "evidence" that isn't (1) mathematical, and (2) to his liking.
Evidence is defined as "something that gives a sign or proof of the existence or truth of something, or that helps somebody come to a particular conclusion." Synonyms, according to the Bing dictionary, include "indication, sign, signal, mark, suggestion, or proof." If Dr. D hears a sabertista say one more time that "THE ENTIRE ARTICLE IS ASSERTION WITH NO EVIDENCE WHATSOEVER", he's going to ... he's going to ... ::splutter:: he's going to ... um. Blog about it. ::sheepish::
Look, dude, twenty embarrassing swings that have the other dugout laughing, that's evidence. Just because you don't like a certain indication towards a conclusion, doesn't mean that you get to declare that "no evidence exists."
Evidence? Look up the word! If you're going to repeatedly confront other authors over their "lack of any evidence whatsoever," then would you PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF ALL THAT IS JAMESIAN stop for two seconds and consider what the word "evidence" CONVEYS.
This isn't just a quibble over semantics. It's a war that is waged by the sabertistas to rule the scouts' observations out of court, and also to declare themselves sole arbiters of what is quality statistical evidence. Sabertistas aren't merely implying that their tools and opinions are better; they're trying to imply that all other voices are worthless. They're not trying to hog the microphone; they're trying to completely silence all other witnesses.
Sorry. Men are sent to jail based on testimony and observation. Very few court convictions, Mojician will confirm we're sure, are driven by JAMA-style research papers. College theses are not the only "evidence" that drives life on planet Earth, either in theoretical terms or practical terms.
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None of which is to say that there isn't any sabermetric evidence as to ARod's fail, either. ARod's 34% strikeout rate vs RHP, post-DL, is most certainly "an indication towards a conclusion." Lachemann is welcome to say that he doesn't consider the evidence convincing. He most certainly is not welcome to imply that Sullivan did not present evidence. Such a statement, Mojician we believe would agree, would be factually in error.
There is a world of difference between saying, "I personally haven't seen a major study on Hardball Times or Baseball Prospectus on broken hands and OPS decline," and saying "No evidence exists that..." Just for starters, how would anyone ever claim to have read everything? Can I tell you confidently that nobody has ever published any information indicating that the moon landing was hoaxed?
This is a huge problem in pop sabermetrics. Authors decide that they don't find an argument convincing and they summarize with "no evidence exists." At Bill James Online, they tie this concern into their concern that the U.S. inches ever nearer an eventual civil war. Contempt for those different than us. We hear that rioting is threatened if President Obama loses the election. Every election cycle it gets more inflammatory.
Tolerance is cool. It's got to start with authentic listening. Authentic listening is not a skill one learns in college; it is a choice and it is a character virtue.
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ARod has become a joke in the batter's box. Part of it could be his injury. Sullivan happens to be materially on point with this article, in my judgment, and the warped definition of "evidence" is what leaves sabertistas with such a failed sense of proportion.
A few months ago, a reader asked Bill James about this general issue:
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Bill - Alex Rodriguez seemed to get the wind knocked out of his career when he was moved to thirdbase. Well, he went from superstar to merely excellent. One player is a miniscule sample size. However, I wonder if having that greater ground to cover keeps a player's speed up and along with that his ability to extend his career. Just a theory, I know, but does that make any sense to you?
Asked by: hoot stat rat
Answered: 6/5/2012
Women's tennis is a minor sport.
Alex won two MVP Awards as a third baseman, was in the top 10 in the voting two other times, and in the top 15 two more times. . ..six seasons (at third base) in the top 15 in the MVP voting. He just got old, like everybody else.
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That'll do for us too.
ARod has given the Yankees 50 WAR in 9 years. Those 52 WAR have been worth roughly $250M to them. That's about what they've paid him: $247M to date.
Somebody owes him another $114M for performance that will be worth maybe $40, $50M. It's fine to overpay for late years to get the early ones, but ARod is one piece of ... um .... "evidence" that goes onto the side of the scale that says "be careful about long contracts."
Who'd have thought that ARod would be done at 36. I thought he was going to hit 900 home runs. As it turns out, his run at 763 is liable to be embarrassing for everybody involved. No ring, no love, no respect. And I doubt anybody's going to name a street after him.
BABVA,
Dr D
Analyzing Google stock: Is it time to buy?
If there was one stock which investors could make good money out of by just buying 10 shares, it would be Google. It has been up and down over the last year with a range of $556 - $774. There was a hiccup by Google in releasing its earnings report early on Thursday which missed Wall Street expectations. As a result, the share price fell almost $68 to $687. The EPS of $9.03 was much lower than the Street's $10.65 and the revenue of $11.33B missed by $530M.
Google was doing so well with its stock up 30 percent since the last quarter and this is something traders did not expect. So is $680 a good time to buy? There are strong reasons for Google stock to exceed $800 in the near future with its search based business growing all the time and YouTube expected to really bring in the cash.
Wall Street loves Google, but the purchase of the Motorola Mobility makes little sense. It isn't the greatest phone division to own and the set-top box doesn't have the best prospects. Moreover, Motorola Mobility reported an operating loss of $527 million.
The earnings report being released earlier was blamed on Google's printer R.R. Donnelley and it has seen $20 billion in market value lost by the tech giant. It seems to me that the human element was responsible for the debacle as the fundamentals and technical components of the stock look pretty good. Traders can account for this human element by buying a few long deep out of the money put options if they are long Google.
Investors still bullish on Apple stock
Apple stock price did drop for a bit recently that has frustrated investors who have bought at prices of around $650. The drop may be due to a market correction after it hit some highs due to the iPhone 5 being released last month.
The P/E ratio of 15 points to higher earnings and a possibility that Apple could hit $1000 a share by the end of 2013. It is supposed to be an incredible buying opportunity at its current price of $632.20 a share. Still, I am pretty skeptical about Apple's short-term prospects and though it may seem like a good time to buy, investors should wait a little.
The other problem is that Foxconn is responsible for the iPhone 5 shortages that is making customers who pre-ordered - creating the initial buzz - to switch to the Samsung Galaxy S3 and other similar smart phones.
I guess the reason why Apple stock is getting hammered is because it is losing its dominance in some markets; an inevitability. Competitors are obviously going to catch up at some point with the top players being Samsung, Amazon, Google and Microsoft among others. The other thing is that the market will mature, but there is still hope for Apple as the iPad "Mini" could see some resurgence in the stock price.
Apple's profit margins are high compared to its industry peers and this was responsible for the massive cash pile. But these profits are falling and since Apple is not a monopoly like Google or Microsoft it will have trouble sustaining profits in the future.
Nonetheless, Apple could have some tricks up its sleeve. History has shown investors that Apple stock should be bought when market participants are really pessimistic about it.
Spoon-fed tea is always better
While visiting Muang Noi, in northern Laos, I had a very interesting experience in a hill top village. The town of Muang Noi is a jumping-off spot for trekking to village homestays, and my first interaction in a village the day before was quite awkward. It felt as if we went to a museum, where we couldn’t interact with the attractions, but instead of them being fake, they were walking, talking, real people.
On my trip to village number two, the feeling was different. The villagers were welcoming, children in the street came to play, and the entire atmosphere felt a lot more authentic. I decided to stop here to get some tea before continuing to a nearby waterfall.
After speaking with the restaurant owner, and seeing her pictures of previous visitors, I began to enjoy my fresh mint tea. The weather was scorching, but hot mint tea still was quite appetizing. As I drank, I felt a tiny push on my tattooed arm. It was the owner’s daughter confused as to why my ink didn’t rub off.
I said hello to the daughter in Laos, and as time passed, she became comfortable with me and began to play. She thought trying to rub off my tattoo was hilarious, but soon grew tired of this activity. Her next mission: steal the spoon from my tea and play with the mint.
She found this game very funny, and found it even funnier when I ate the mint directly off the spoon. This caused a fit of laughter, and an immediate repetition of the new game. After the mint leaves had disappeared, the only thing left was to spoon-feed me the rest of the liquid remaining in my cup. This activity occupied the rest of my afternoon, and I couldn't have been happier.
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The rules not in the manual
In my experience in the world of working nine to five is that the manual they give you when you’re hired does not give you the whole shebang rules-wise, because there are company rules, and then there are company rules. The ones they don’t tell you about until you stub your toe on them even though you’ve carefully read through the manual. They can run from the mundane such as not being able to take a break in certain areas of the store to the downright insidious, like not being able to talk about spending your wages at a non-union store when you work at a unionized establishment during job shifts at the latter.
The best way to prevent that from happening to you, especially in this current economic climate where any job you can get is gold, is to ask questions.
Whether you are at an interview, on your orientation, or your first day on the job, ask questions in order to find out as much as possible rather than blindly trust in what you are told or what the manual says.
Say you come across a regulation saying all employees have to do this that or the other and you can’t find it in the employee handbook. You could trust it blindly and obey just as enlightened, or you could ask just to make sure you and your employer are on the same page. You might get managers who hem and haw when you ask, but don’t let it deter you. You have a right to know why things are the way they are so you can adapt to your new work environment. Or you could simply ask a knowledgeable co-worker as you get settled in something like “Okay, so just what are the rules around here the manual does not list?”
No matter what questions you have to ask, doing so will pay you big dividends in avoiding needless headaches at work.
Senate Race Update: Northeast
As covered in this space before, the Northeast is providing an unexpected treasure-trove of interesting U.S. Senate races.
The race in Massachusetts was always expected to be tight, with incumbent Sen. Scott Brown (R) relying on his likeability and appeal, and law professor Elizabeth Warren (D) counting on the strong partisan edge and liberal tilt to the state.
Polls in the Bay State continue to vary, but while it appeared for a time that Warren might take a solid, if narrow lead, it now appears that the race is close to dead-heat mode (although probably with Warren slightly ahead).
Brown launched his long-expected challenge to Warren's use of alleged Native American ancestry to portray herself as a "person of color," and, while it may have contributed to making a dent in her lead, it did not appear to propel Brown back into the lead. Most voters had probably already processed the allegations.
But ... Brown closed fast the first time he ran for the seat, and many forget that Mitt Romney himself trailed in the polls in September and October when he ran for Massachusetts governor in 2002, before finishing strong to win by 50-45. Romney and Brown share some of the same Massachusetts operatives. Coincidentally or not, the Democrat nominee in Romney's 2002 race and each of Brown's races has been female. In each case, independent voters broke to the GOP candidate. So will history repeat?
RealClearPolitics.com Average: Warren 48.5%, Brown 46.0%
New York Times forecast: Warren 82% chance of winning
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The race in Connecticut for the seat of retiring independent Democrat Joe Lieberman also remains close. Rep. Chris Murphy (D) has been unable to shake the persistent and well-funded campaign of businesswoman and 2010 Senate nominee Linda McMahon.
Even polls showing Murphy in the lead have not shown him in particularly strong position, but voters appear to be a bit reluctant to enthusastically embrace McMahon, whose family made its fortune from the decidedly lowbrow pro-wrestling business, in which sometimes McMahon herself appeared with her ringmaster husband Vince.
Most observers feel the state's Democratic leanings will kick in for Murphy, but it's been a much longer slog than expected.
RCP Average: Murphy 47.0%, McMahon 44.0%
New York Times forecast: Murphy 74% chance of winning
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Maine is the oddball race -- as detailed in this space -- in which the Democrats hope to win by not having the Democrat win. The party has "officially unofficially" embraced independent candidate Angus King, former independent governor, with the hope/expectation that he will caucus as a Democrat once in Washington.
That means "not trying too hard" to elect the actual Democrat in the race, State Sen. Cynthia Dill. So far, it appears to be working. King has led in every poll.
GOP efforts to make the race more partisan and lure the Democrats into open betrayal of Dill came close (Republican nominee Attorney General Charlie Summers narrowed the gap in one poll to eight points), but King appears to have weathered the storm and shows no signs of dropping below 40%, which is where he would have to drop for Summers to make an effective challenge, and Democrats show no sign of embracing Dill's forlorn campaign.
RCP Average: King 46.0%, Summers 30.7%, Dill 13.3%
New York Times forecast: King 90% chance of winning
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Finally, New Jersey has always been just a bit on the radar, due to the role of popular Gov. Chris Christie in the campaign of his protege State Sen. Joe Kyrillos (R) against incumbent Sen. Robert Menendez (D).
Menendez has never been wildly popular, and Kyrillos and Christie hoped to mount a meaningful challenge.
It has not happened, yet, but Christie is making a late push, and it's possible that a strong gust of national wind at the Republican's back could bring about an upset. Supposedly, it was "the plan" for Christie to wait until late in the game to make major campaign appearances for Kyrillos, although some observers wonder what they were waiting for.
With Romney making major strides among independents since the first presidential debate, and Christie already strong with that group, it's possible that Kyrillos could benefit, but it seems late in the day to make up his apparent deficit.
RCP Average: Menendez 52%, Kyrillos 36%
New York Times forecast: Menendez 98% chance of winning
Highway 61, by David Housewright
The eighth book of David Housewright's mystery series featuring cop turned unlicensed PI Rushmore McKenzie finds Mac being asked for help by a man he'd rather not help: Jason Truhler, the ex-husband of Mac's girlfriend, Saint Paul jazz club owner Nina Truhler.
At first Mac does not look at Jason when he asks what he wants. Instead, he looks out the window at Jason and Nina’s daughter Erica feeding the ducks which live in the backyard pond of Mac’s Falcon Heights home. Jason tells Mac he wants his help, but McKenzie does not turn from the window for the longest time even though it was Erica (whom McKenzie likes) that told her dad he might be able to help him with a problem he has been having lately. Finally, McKenzie relents and lets Jason tell him what the problem is. Turns out it is blackmail to the tune of nine thousand, nine hundred and eighty dollars, a jam Jason says he got into during a trip to a jazz festival up in Thunder Bay, Ontario, Canada, where he wound up getting accused of murdering a young woman he says he met at the festival, something Jason insists he did not do. When he is done with his story, McKenzie smells foul play but not necessarily murder. In fact, it smells like a scam, and when Mac reluctantly looks into it at first that is what it seems like: a fake murder for means of extortion.
But if that is all there is to it, who put cocaine inside the spare tire of McKenzie’s Jeep Cherokee during his snooping around Thunder Bay, and who are the perps who later break into his garage back in Falcon Heights who frisk where the coke was stored not knowing McKenzie had flushed it away in a Thunder Bay car wash? And just where do the vicious pair of drug smuggling brothers known as “the Joes” fit into the whole picture, especially when they confront Mac in the parking lot of Nina’s club and leave swearing they will get Mac after he turns the tables on the duo and thrashes them both? And why did Jason lie to him about making reservations for two prior to his trip to the jazz fest? And who are the perps who ambush McKenzie while he is tailing a Metro Transit bus through Saint Paul that has a kid carrying Jason’s latest ransom payment aboard wrecking Mac’s prize Audi in the process? Finally, where does a wealthy Twin City power broker fit in with all of this, especially when he is trying to protect a local madam whose operation Mac has stumbled upon all thanks to Jason being a client of her girls?
Questions like these (plus many more) will keep the pages turning if you read this second to latest entry in David Housewright’s Rushmore McKenzie mystery series.