A new poll released on Monday shows the Massachusetts U.S. Senate race to be every bit as tight as advertised. The poll of likely voters by Kimball Political Consulting shows Sen. Scott Brown (R) leading Democrat Elizabeth Warren by 46-45. The prior version of the poll showed Brown with a six-point lead.
It should be noted, however, that the poll was taken immediately after the Democratic National Convention, at which Warren spoke, so the likelihood of a "bounce" for the Democratic side can't be dismissed. Moreover, the poll is not an "independent" poll by a media organization, but rather a poll conducted by a political consulting group. But it does generally reflect what other polls have been saying.
The key finding is that while both candidates do well among their partisans (and there aren't that many Republican partisans in Massachusetts), Brown leads by 54-36 amond independents. A successful Republican candidate in Massachusetts must have a lead of that size among independent voters. If Brown can hold on to it, he can hold on to his seat.
