Rare spotted zebra found
Kenya's Masai Mara is one of the best places in the world for wildlife watching. Photographer and safari guide Paul Goldstein caught a truly prized specimen on film, after tracking it down for two years. This elusive animal is a zebra who has an unusual pattern of stripes and spots.
Schools ban Flamin' Hot Cheetos
The war against junk food is getting surprisingly literal these days. Schools across the country are moving to ban Flamin' Hot Cheetos from school property.
Limbaugh's Libya conspiracy
More and more, Rush Limbaugh seems to be taking over Glenn Beck's vacant position as the prime time wacky conservative political conspiracy theorist. His latest assertion is that Obama A) was responsible for removing Gaddafi from power and/or killing him, B) believes that this was a bad idea because the resulting power vacuum allowed Al Qaeda to flourish in Benghazi, and C) is trying to distract everyone from this point.
Talking Points: Angel Pagan
Talking points, as opposed to a POTD. If we had any sort of confident conclusion about a player, we'd have a POTD. Instead, you get a chat board post. Ah, the memories.
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1) The Mariners have two CF's who play approximately as well as Pagan does. They've got one who will hit 32 homers :- ) for peanuts, and they are paying the other one $7M next season.
G-Money says:
Dr. D's memo: If the M's were going to spend $10M+ per year on a player, you'd think that they would want to emphasize the delta that such an incoming player would give them over their current options.
On that note, you'd have people arguing that Saunders isn't actually a viable center fielder. Those people, to swipe Mark Twain's line, would Not be Me.
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2) Pagan is a WAR hero. In this article, Fangraphs nominates Pagan for the game's most underrated player. They underline Pagan's 5 WAR this past season, which puts him at over $20M per season on-field value. They go so far as to deadpan that he's comparable to Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson and Marx Teixeira.
We don't suppose that you'd hesitate to pay 4/$50M for Granderson or Teixeira, whoever your rookies were. The logic is sound, if the premises dubious. (One dubious premise being: WAR gives a reliable handle on what a player's on-field impact will be in the future.)
Dr. D's memo: Chone Figgins became a FA superstar on the strength of a 5.0 WAR based on "soft skills." Hey! The guy is an above average fielder, above average runner, gets on base, above average everything. Bingo! He's worth Mark Teixeira's 37 homers and 119 RBI per 162 ballgames.
This "soft skills" 4.0, 5.0 WAR player has become an epidemic problem. The year before, the very year before, Pagan had a bit of an off year at the plate, and UZR didn't love him any more, and his WAR was ... 0.9. There you go, gentlemen. Chone Figgins.
But hey. If you're into WAR as a reliable paradigm, you're into Angel Pagan. Why WOULDN'T you pay $12M per, for 5 WAR. Let's see if anybody does that. In theory the bidding should easily go past $15M per, past $18M per.
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3) Pagan's REL (reliability) score is scary. Shander, prior to 2012, wrote of the 31-year-old Pagan that "Another year, another 30 SB, but be careful. SPD decline suggests these days could be numbered. Poor health says don't bank on 500 AB seasons. Some will look at 30 SB as baseline. You'll heed warning signs and look for premium wheels elsewhere."
Pagan will turn 32 during next year's All-Star Break. For mediocrities like him, that's about the year you start talking about retiring. Seriously. Age 27, maybe 28 is the prime time, and at about age 32 is when they start playing like horse manure. Figgins is an example.
Dr. D's memo: I can't tell you exactly what it is that I don't like about short-term 4.0, 5.0 WAR players who don't have any talent. But am guessing that if I wanted to nail it down, I could. Maybe I'd start with the idea of "talent."
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4) Angel Pagan and Chris Young have interesting similarities as a comp pair. Both hit in the 100'ish range as center fielders and both run well, in the 20-30 SB range. Both are considered plus CF's, though Young's numbers are a lot better.
Billy Beane, who doesn't have a lot of money to spend, just gave Young $8.5 and $11.0M over the next two years -- giving up only a fringy SS, and a Grade C prospect, Carlos Triunfel-lite type to get the contract -- so you could ask how that relates to the Pagan salary baseline.
I'd rather have Young by quite a ways; he's much younger, has a rep as a true impact defensive CF and he's signed to a 2-year deal. That's quite a bit different than giving a 3- or 4-year deal to a 32-35 year old. Still, as you know, Young wasn't a free agent. But it's worth filing away, that Miami didn't rake in a mint for Young's team-friendly contract.
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=== Dr's R/X ===
A player who scores you a "stealth" 4.0, 5.0 WAR for a year or two? Good stuff. That's what Stars & Scrubs is there for. You seek those whack-a-mole 4.0 WAR contributions on the downlow.
To pay a Scrub coming off a 2010, 2012 Angel Pagan season --- > as though he were a Star? There's somethin' fishy bout dat. SSI will be surprised if Pagan gets any GM, any of the 30, to pay Pagan for even 60% of his WAR resume, times a 4-year deal.
Alternatively, maybe you think Pagan really will net you 40-50 runs the next three-four years, hard on the barrelhead -- it's just that he'll do it Edgar-style, in ways that aren't as sexy as Texy. If so, there's a bargain to be had here. There are a couple of teams that might be very hot for a decent CF this offseason - the Reds? maybe?
If Dr. D is a real-life GM, he's betting the under on Angel and on WAR as an inviolable paradigm. No Chone redux for Dr. D, please. But hey. We moved the fences in for Mickey anyhow.
Cheers,
Jeff
Don’t take my picture!
Up until a few months ago, I was one of those people.
You know, the ones who jump out of group photographs right before the flash, stammering, “Oh, no no no, not me!” It’s usually a woman—I almost never hear of men doing this—who thinks she looks so incredibly horrible and grotesque that the CIA will somehow find her picture from your daughter’s bat mitzvah and immediately capture her, classifying her as some kind of strange cryptic worthy of international study. Brain removal may or may not be necessary, but why take the chance?
I wish I could shake each and every one of these women and yell, “You’re beautiful, stupid! Don’t not make memories because of your chin or your love handles!” Of course, I don’t think that would help much—and not just because it would be me calling people stupid. Look, if I want to capture your face forever on my phone, it’s because I happen to like said face; I’m not forwarding it to People of Walmart.Of course, if we are at Walmart, I cannot make that same promise.
Who taught you to hate the mirror, to hate having yourself photographed? I bet if I guess somewhere between the media, school, your parents, an ex, and society in general, I’d be right. We are trained as women from day one to value our bodies more than anything else—indeed, that it is our appearance that matters. There’s a reason why both the beauty and dieting industries rake in billions of dollars, and that’s because they feed the self-hate machine that makes us buy their products.
When I realized that I’m still as big as I was seven years ago yet I’m in hardly any photos with my little girl, it made me want to cry. I vowed that I will never duck out of a photo again—unless I’m at Walmart; that goes without saying—least I end up without a single photo of us for her to remember me by later, or for me to remember us together while she’s traveling the world or at college or whatever.
So do me a favor and step into that shoot, giving it your best smile. I know it’s hard. I know it’s even embarrassing sometimes. But don’t you want the world to have some record that you existed? You are so much more beautiful than you give yourself credit for.
So Christians, what’s up with that whole Romney thing?
One of my friends recently pointed out that it’s weird that we have all of these Christians voting for Mitt Romney on religious grounds. Many of our own Christian and Catholic friends claim they support ol’ Mitt because he’s against abortion and same-sex marriage. Yet Romney is a pretty obvious Mormon, and these same Christians claim that Mormonism doesn’t represent their values.
I suppose these must be the same Christians who claim that President Obama cannot be Christian, as they believe he is a Muslim, no matter how much disclosure he offers nor how many facts he presents.
That’s the problem, isn’t it? Those pesky little facts! God forbid we attempt to humor one, let alone them all! The fact of the matter also remains that the Bible—that Christianity—was used for years by white supremacists who wanted to continue supporting segregation, in completely non-Christian ways. Today it’s being used to suppress the rights of the LGBT community as well as women’s health and reproductive decisions.
Mitt’s Mormonism doesn’t bother me. Some of my friends are Mormons. Now, the whole Mormon support of Prop 8—that DOES bother me. As soon as you start mixing up religion and politics and burning women as witches, well, we’re all in trouble. But as long as you’re doing it, Christian friends, don’t you think you could at least be consistent and choose a Christian man over a Mormon one?
Ahh, I see, it’s the whole black thing, isn’t it? Do you just want a white president? “Oh!” I hear you cry. “That’s offensive! I’m not a racist!” Oh, no? Then what else are we to believe when you have an openly Christian man who is behaving like Christ—being charitable, helping the poor, loving all people and trying to give everyone equal opportunities and healthcare—as president, and you say, “Yeah, no, I’m voting for the Mormon.”
Back it up with something other than religion, folks, because you’re falling flat on your face with this one. I have friends voting for Romnesia because of his economic principles—whatever those are, amirite?—or because they’re afraid of socialism like Baby’s parents were afraid of sex in Dirty Dancing and they want to put America in a corner, for goodness sake!—but none of them claim religious principles, save my Mormon friends, which at least makes sense.
I know you like to pick and choose, conservative evangelical Christian friends. You do it all the time with the Bible and our gay friends. But how about being consistent for a change?
This Means War
My best friend assured me that the film This Means War is fantastically funny, and she was right, as usual. I laughed pretty hard. But I didn’t walk away thinking it was a great movie because there were plenty aspects of the film that bothered me.
The obvious problem is that these two covert agents actively spied on the girl they were both dating. They didn’t just Google her like a normal person, or even look up her information and leave it at that; they bugged her house! They followed her everywhere she went! And worst of all, they recorded her on camera, including a scene during which she had sex with one of them. Of course, the more devious of the two was the one she ended up with (no, I’m not bitter that she didn’t end up with my pick—just really, really irritated at what’s passing for romance).
Hollywood, I don’t give a damn what teen girls are telling you they like a la Twilight. Men watching women without their knowledge in the privacy of their own homes—and following them everywhere they go—is not romantic! It is called stalking and it is illegal! And to have a woman actually agree to marry the guy who bugged her and recorded himself sleeping with her—and allowed his work buddies to see it—sends out a misogynistic message loud and clear: it’s okay to invade women’s privacy and break their trust because it’s, like, romantic.
No, it’s not. And the fact that if these two idiots had been doing their job in the first place and monitoring the man they were supposed to instead of this girl, they would have apprehended their terrorist and saved plenty of time, money, damage control, injuries, and possibly lives just kills me. Yes, it’s supposed to be a romantic comedy, but that is just ridiculous. By not doing their jobs while knowing this guy was after them, they put the girl of their dreams in danger—and they knew better.
If this film had had less idiocy and stalking—how about no stalking, actually?—it would have been really fun. I just spent way too much time being angry at the men—and at her for not coming clean about dating two people at once before sleeping with one of them—to really enjoy it all that much.
Cool soundtrack, though.
'Magic Mike,' 'Savages' and 'Seeking a Friend for the End of the World' lead this week's new DVD releases
I'm happy to say that the new DVD and Blu-ray releases this week look excellent. Of the top three I've picked, I've seen just one -- but it was a good one. And stop rolling your eyes at me, because yes, it is Magic Mike. I promise it's way more than just a guy stripper movie. Way, way more.
If a great Steven Soderbergh film isn't to your liking, you've got plenty of other options to keep your evenings filled with great movie entertainment this week.First, I'm going to talk about the drama/comedy Magic Mike though, because I feel I can make a solid recommendation since I've seen it. Yes, it's got some incredible eye candy in the form of some of the most beautiful looking guys I've ever had the pleasure of seeing on film. *But* it's also a very well-done film that shows clearly the darker side of the stripping industry. It's a character study, and it's a cautionary tale to be sure. Ladies: See it. Guys? You might not hate it quite as much as you think you will, trust me.
Now on to the two other new DVD releases this week that intrigue me the most: the Oliver Stone-directed suspense drama Savages, and the comedy Seeking a Friend for the End of the World, starring Steve Carell and Keira Knightley. I missed both of these in the theater, mainly because reviews for both were mixed (though generally pretty positive). I hear Salma Hayek gives an outstanding performance in Savages, but that it's extremely violent. No problem, if that's your thing, you'll probably dig this movie.
As for Seeking a Friend, I'm just not sure: I really like Steve Carell and I adored him in Crazy, Stupid, Love, so I'll go for a little romantic comedy action from him again and see what happens.
Has anyone seen Savages or Seeking a Friend for the End of the World yet? If so, can you recommend either one? Let's hear it in the comments. Happy movie watching, everyone!
'Paranormal Activity 4' wins the weekend box office
We love to be scared, and we love our Paranormal Activity franchise, apparently. The latest installment in the spooky series, Paranormal Activity 4, easily won the weekend box office, but interestingly enough, it didn't perform nearly as well as it's predecessors. Bad sign? Probably so.
Somehow, I managed to wiggle out of my promise to see a scary film in theaters before Halloween (whew). I lobbied hard to go see Argo, because the word of mouth from friends was ridiculously strong -- and because I finally got over my cold and felt well enough to brave the theater without infecting my fellow movie goers. The short version: I'm so glad I did. Argo is an incredible movie.Let's take a quick look first at the weekend box office numbers, before I start telling you how amazing Argo is (oh, wait, I just did that...anyway...): Paranormal Activity 4 was first, taking in just over $30 million in its debut weekend. That's not shabby, but it's definitely less than Paranormal Activity 3 last year. I've seen the previous three PA movies, because reviews were pretty decent and word of mouth was good. Not so with this one, so I stayed away -- and apparently, I'm not the only one. I highly doubt PA 4 can keep this momentum going in the weeks to come.
Argo landed in second place at the weekend box office, taking in a very respectable $16.6 million. Hotel Transylvania was third, with $13.5 million, while Taken 2 was fourth, with $13.4 million. And Alex Cross failed to impress in its opening weekend: The movie finished in fifth place with $11.8 million.
Now back to Argo, which I know I've already told you is excellent. Now I need to tell you *why* it's so great: It's timely, it's informative, it's beautifully acted, wonderfully directed and suspenseful -- even if you know the story and the outcome beforehand. Ben Affleck has truly found his calling. I'll be shocked if Argo doesn't get Best Picture and Best Director nominations, and I would love it if Alan Arkin and John Goodman both get Best Supporting Actor noms, too.
Argo, so far, is my favorite movie of the year, and I've seen some great ones. See it!!
Bruce Springsteen stumps for Barack Obama
No one who's followed Bruce Springsteen's illustrious career should be surprised that he's jumped into the political race, backing Democratic incumbent President Barack Obama. In 2004, The Boss was the star attraction at numerous "Vote for Change" concerts supporting then Democratic nominee John Kerry. And when Obama was inaugurated, Springsteen was there, performing before millions, Pete Seeger-style.
Last week, Bruce Springsteen posted a lengthy missive on his official website, detailing his views and beliefs. Now, he's planning a free concert at a big Obama for America rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, on Tuesday.In a message dated October 17, 2012, Bruce Springsteen posted "A Message From Bruce" on his site, explaining in great detail why he feels that Barack Obama should be re-elected to office. The next day, thousands turned out for Obama rallies in Parma, Ohio, and Ames, Iowa, where Springsteen performed a few acoustic songs and spent some time firing up the crowds (with the help of former President Bill Clinton in Ohio). Now, he'll rinse and repeat at a show in Virginia this week.
For fans who agree with Bruce's politics, this is a joy to behold. But what about for those who don't? I'm a huge part of the so-called Bruce "community" of fans, and I have friends on both sides. The ones who disagree with Springsteen's politics, for the most part, just kind of let it slide, opting to trust the art and not necessarily the artist. But for those who agree with Bruce Springsteen's political views, well, they're in heaven right about now.
I've been thinking a lot about how much celebrity endorsements matter in elections. Bruce Springsteen is a rock god, to be sure, but does it matter that he's doing all of this? Will an independent, undecided voter who just happens to be a Springsteen fan suddenly decide to vote for Obama after seeing The Boss perform a few poignant songs? Probably not. But these shows at campaign stops probably do help to get the base fired way up, so there's that.
What do you think? If you were an undecided voter, would these kinds of appearances influence your decision in any way? And, if you love Bruce Springsteen but disagree with his politics, are you still a fan of the man's music? Let me know in the comments. I'd love to hear everyone's opinions.