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K-Pax Turns It Up to 11
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"I like to have the stacks cranked up, y'know? I mean I like to feel the hairs on my arm move out there." - Eddie Van Halen
From Hey Bill:
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In re Lincecum. Let's presume Lincecum is or has been a great pitcher on a peak basis. Steve Carlton had a crappy year in his late-20's, Vida Blue had a lousy year in his late-20's, and they came back, though Lefty obviously more so than Vida. I assume you can come up with examples of pitchers who did not. Is there a way to tell which ones will come back, and which are through? It seems likely that there is not, but it also seems like there must be.Asked by: MikeCharyAnswered: 10/28/2012Well, this is what we do on a daily basis, on an hourly basis, within a front office; we look for clues that a player will come back or that he won't.There isn't anything absolute. If a pitcher's velocity is down, that becomes a concern; on the other hand, pitchers' velocity drops as they age, so then you have to ask yourself whether this indicates a progressive decline, or whether the pitcher can adjust to it and still pitch, or whether he might still be effective in a different role. If a pitcher's pitch selection has changed in some way that hasn't been productive, that might be an opportunity; if you can acquire the player and get him to stop throwing that changeup that is getting hit hard, then he might snap back.There are hundreds of things you can look at to get a clue as to whether a player might come back, but there is no absolute answer except to wait until next year and see.But Lincecum struck out 190 batters in 186 innings. That's a really strong indicator that he can bounce back.
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Let's put two and two together, out here in the bleachers.
On the one end of things, you have got a school of thought that says the AFL means no more and no less than batting practice would mean; nothing to see here. At the other end of the spectrum, Geoff Baker reports that Tom McNamara is sweltering in the seats behind home plates "furiously scribbling notes." Royals staff are "nodding together" as Paxton detonates the guys taking "batting practice." Baker, with his usual fine feel for the ground game, radios Free Houston that these are important seismo's. Paxton is throwing the stuffing out of the ball and the other teams' scouts are going bug-eyed.
So does the AFL mean nothing or does it mean a whale of a lot? Three things to chuck down in there into the pile of peanut shells behind the scoreboard:
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1. Dr. D has always been mesmerized by the fact that the slots in the June ammy draft will change literally with each single start that a college pitcher takes. Come middle, late June, a Gerrit Cole can be slotted #6 and then jump to #1 with a single Friday start, or vice versa.
The same happens with July trades. What are all those scouts doing in the stands as Doug Fister takes his last start for the M's? Don't they know who he is?
This always struck Dr. D as too impressionable. But James' remarks do provide some layering to the issue....
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2. As Einstein hated the question, "What initiated the Big Bang?," hated it enough to resist believing it for years and years ... so sabermetricians hate the questions "What causes a player to have a good year? And how can you predict it?" They will suppress the question wherever possible, for the simple reason that they are ill-equipped to cope with it.
They're okay with PECOTA's percentile projections: Mike Carp has a 50% chance of a 104 OPS+ or better, and a 10% chance of a 127 OPS+ or better. That's computerized and there is no need to defer to an ex-ballplayer.
But is it possible to look at a Kyle Seager, while he's playing in AA, and say "THAT one!" ? If so, is it possible for intuition to play a role?
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3. Dr. D still believes that, in their zeal to squeeze the verrrrrry last drop of perception out of their intuitions --- > the Good Ole Baseball Boyz can be a little too impressionable. A little too subject to the whims of whether an ML player had an extra margarita the night before.
But the basic quest for projection - the basic attempt to make the right hair-fine judgment, on Mike Carp vs Alex Liddi - Dr. D signs off on that. And there is still a huge role for the ex-ballplayer in this realm. Computers will never, at any point in human history even 10,000 years from now, completely capture and predict human performance. There will always be a role for a mom listening to her daughter choose a little bit of a funny word phrasing, and intuiting that she'd been drinking...
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4. Did we say three things? Man, I'd hate to see Paxton go. On the chill meter:
- Pineda: So cool he made me forget the Randy Johnson thing
- Paxton: Not THAT, but still, Kin-Tuckee southpaw with a Sidd Finch motion and fass'bawl? ... as cool as Jered Weaver, Clayton Kershaw, or Jay Buhner (K-Pax nickname is dissonant, though, unless Paxton speaks as slowly as Kevin Spacey)
- Hultzen: I don't get any refrigeration whatosever, at this point
- Taijuan: See above. Fans taking a false start off a kid's ability to dunk is actually negative refrigeration
"I notice when I get to likin' somebody, they ain't around long." - Josey Wales >:-[
"I notice when you get to DIS likin' somebody, they ain't around long neither." - Chief Dan George
Why couldn't baseball have steered onto one of the other Big Three? Or Erasmo? Erasmo's really good. Honest he is.
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Baseball people have their intuition receivers cranked to 11. And James Paxton is whaling on his guitar's whammy bar out there.
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Biohazard Café and Grill S.T.A.R.S.
Leave it to the Japanese to take a popular video game about disease and zombies and turn it into a place where you go to get something to eat. It’s called the Biohazard Café and Grill S.T.A.R.S. (yes, an awkward name) and it’s a Resident Evil-themed restaurant located in Tokyo.
Assisted in its opening by Capcom (the makers of the Resident Evil franchise), this eatery debuted up just a little while ago, matching the release of a new Resident Evil game as well as the latest movie. But despite what the name implies, there is no shooting of an undead menace before, during or after you eat. Mostly it’s just a little bit of décor that makes the name, along with a themed menu list to carry more of that Resident Evil flavor (pun definitely intended).
In addition to the decorations, the waitresses are dolled up in some RE-styled gear, including
jean short-shorts, combat boots and fake guns at their sides. Every once in a while, they bust out in some choreographed dancer number to keep the customers entertained in a decidedly non-Resident Evil way.The food consists of a variety of choices, most of them distinctively not Japanese. An all-you-can-eat BBQ buffet is just one example of what you can expect if you eat here. Unfortunately, the food didn’t get the best review, especially considering the price you pay, so it might be best to just order some fries, enjoy the show and then go someplace in Tokyo a little cheaper to fill your belly. Still, if you’re a Resident Evil fan, it’s a must-see at least once if you happen to be traveling through the city.
Pushkar Camel Fair
The Pushkar Camel fair is a five day event that focuses on all things livestock and camel-oriented. It takes place in the town of Pushkar in Rajasthan each year in November and has become such a tourist draw that more than 300,000 people now come from the surrounding regions and all over the world to get a look at this celebration of Indian tradition.
It originally started as a way to motivate traders to come to the town and do business. Every year it gained more and more popularity and became less focused on just trading, eventually evolving into a full-fledged festival while still retaining the original intent.
During this time, more than 50,000 camels are brought to Pushkar, one of the largest gatherings of camels in the world. They come decorated, dressed up, shaved and in whatever other creative manners their owners can think of. The camels are there to be traded, of course, as are a collection of cows, sheep, goats and horses, but there is much more to the Pushkar Fair than that.
The whole thing begins with a camel race and shifts to a more festival atmosphere of music and dancing. There are interesting events, such as the longest mustache contest, and
sporting events, such as a cricket match organized between Pushkar’s local team and a randomly selected group of eager tourists. In addition there are magicians, acrobats, snake charmers, exhibitions of Indian culture and market filled with local crafts. As the festival days progress, the celebratory nature shifts to that of a more religious bent and people take the opportunity to bath in the lake of Pushkar, which is known for its ability to cleanse away sins.If you have some spare cash, you can even take a viewing tour of the fairgrounds from a hot air balloon. It’s best to reserve a hotel early if you’re coming, however, and expect to pay a bit more because of the festival. For those interested in the culture of India, the Pushkar Fair is a great way to see many regional people performing their traditions in one place.
Au naturale
Now for something a bit earthy, a tad retro, and whole lot of hip. But hold on, we're not done with the adjectives yet. Try dramatic, sultry, romantic and Bohemian chic enough to charm any worldly wanderer, too.
Think we're exaggerating? Have a look for yourself. With one glimpse of Jewelry by Jillian, you'll understand just why we're raving.
See what we mean? Designer Jillian Knapp is a genius at blending beads and semi-precious stones with cool hardware. While we happen to love everything she makes, our favorites are her use of agate and sunstone, as well as her work with oxidized silver and repurposed leather. Her use of coral comes in a close second.
With turquoise stones, copper twists and smoky quartz, you've instantly got collection full of handmade goodness. It's perfect for fall, to boot.
Not only do we love the natural splendor of what we see, but we adore Jewelry by Jillian's respect for the environment even more. These instantly feminine pieces are made in Vermont from natural, organic, or repurposed materials. When your order finally arrives, the gift box, bubble wrap and paper used are all from recycled goods.
That means Jewelry by Jillian is a designer you can feel good about buying, and even better about wearing.
Unleash the gypsy wanderer within you by checking out Jewelry by Jillian on Copious and Etsy. Don't forget to like her on Facebook, too.
Enjoy!
Mexican villagers turn vigilante
The situation between drug cartels and government forces is a violent and often chaotic one in the country of Mexico. Tens-of-thousands of people have been killed so far and many more will likely die before the problem has achieved resolution.
Some groups of people, left by the government to fend for themselves, have decided to take matters into their own hands. When they can not get the government to send in soldiers to protect them, they simply pick up their own weapons and fight the drug cartels themselves.
Some places, in response to ongoing cartel activity in their regions, are putting up barricades, arming themselves and setting up patrols to keep the enemy from getting into their villages. People who travel into these towns are being stopped and searched, to make sure they aren’t there to do harm. Local police forces are being told to go away, the villagers knowing that Mexico’s cops are notorious for having a very high level of corruption.
Despite their best efforts, it’s unlikely that villages will be able to hold off the cartels if those organizations decided to take a serious interest in suppressing them. It might not be the best thing for cartels to do, considering all their other problems, but it’s still a possibility. So why would villagers turn vigilante and risk their own lives?
There are many reasons, not the least of which are the crimes the cartels have committed against these people in the past. They have been terrorized, their friends and family have gone missing, and multiple cartels have turned their homes into a war zone. Representatives of these vigilante villagers have said that they will only stand down when the Mexican government sends soldiers there to set up a base of operations and protect them.
Meanwhile, the rest of village life goes on as usual. People farm and shop and live out their lives, all the while existing within a potential war zone. Until the government figures something out, they will have to fend for themselves. From the look of things, they seem to be doing a pretty good job of it thus far. Maybe the best way to win the war against the cartels is to give weapons to all the people who have a vested interest in fighting them?
France advances abortion-friendly law system
This week, the French government implemented a change in abortion and contraception laws that will improve conditions for women overall. They have decided that all abortions shall be fully reimbursed and that contraception will be available and free to minors aged 15 to 18.
Though this is only a small increase in what the laws in place already were, it really highlights the extreme contrast between France and the U.S., pointing out to me just how backwards we are here in the states.
The main difference is that French lawmakers are looking at the reality of the situation when it comes to women’s health, abortion safety and population control. People in the U.S. are often drawn into the religious dogma of the debate and fail to see anything other than their own selfishness.
If the laws don’t fall in line with their religious belief systems, then they attempt to undermine them. Although we have provisions in our constitution to make sure that religion does not influence lawmaking, that sort of dogmatic political approach is still rampant.
How long will it take us to finally reach the level that France has gotten to? When will we be able to make the distinction between what’s best for an individual and what’s best for the population as a whole? By following the examples of other countries with more realistic views, we may just learn a thing or two.
And hopefully, someday we can reach out and act as the example that others will follow on their way to securing women’s rights over their bodies and guaranteeing for their people a measure of safety and freedom when it comes to such things.
Q. Paxton and Franklin ... for?
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We're like you. A little bit different. -- ad seen on a bus ... for an insurance company, of all things
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The Seattle blog-o-sphere has definitely always been a little bit different. One of the ways in which it is different is the way in which we all one-up ourselves in the hustle and bustle to take 1st place in line at the Most Objective counter.
Monday, Dr. D will smile wryly as a writer informs The Faithful that Hultzen, Franklin and Wilhelmsen aren't worth nearly as much as we homers assume that they are. Tuesday, he'll smile sardonically as we're warned to stop noodling about deals for Wil Myers and Billy Hamilton; teams don't trade the diamonds of their farm systems. They play the cheap guys and trade the arb guys. C'mon, don'choo know anything?
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We can yell, scream and threaten about how much different James Paxton's value will be after he makes 8 good starts in the majors. In my view that's just about impossible to nail down. What I do know is that Bill James said that a glamor ML-ready starting pitcher in the minors is priceless before he debuts in the majors, and we'll proceed here on the assumption that you don't lose a lot of value on Paxton by trading him two months early. (Winter, vs. in June.) If the reality is different - if Paxton's value doubles with his first 8-10 starts in the bigs - then of course you just don't trade him.
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Billy Beane has made some unreal trades over the years. He flipped Mark Mulder and got --- > Dan Haren, Daric Barton and Kiko Calero. Slap me silly!, that's enough to make a rival GM swear off dealing with Moneyball.
You want to count up Billy heists on your fingers, you're gonna have to take off your socks too. He traded for Milton Bradley right before MB went nuts. With the bat, not with the antics. Billy traded an aging Terrence Long for Mark Kotsay, and then Kotsay immediately turned in a season that raked in MVP votes. He got Kevin Appier for Jeff D'Amico and two guys you never heard of, and Appier won him 15 games. He traded Ben Grieve and parts for Johnny Damon, Cory Lidle - who was excellent for him - and Mark Ellis. There was Jose Ortiz for Jermaine Dye. And when it came Nick Swisher's time to go, Beane got back Gio Gonzalez and spects for him.
But the best trade Billy Beane ever made - the one that dropped baseball's jaw so wide that it walked home scooping gravel - was the Dan Haren trade:
December 14, 2007: Traded by the Oakland Athletics with Connor Robertson to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Brett Anderson, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham, Dana Eveland,Carlos Gonzalez and Greg Smith.
We bring this up because Brett Anderson and Carlos Gonzalez -- the two top-100 prospects in the deal -- pair off so symmetrically with James Paxton and Nick Franklin.
Brett Anderson - ranked #38 by Baseball America at the time. Had just completed class A+ ball with a hot fastball, good but not great statistics. Was considered possibly only 1-2 years away from the majors.
James Paxton - variously ranked #15 to #45 by different services. Has graduated AA and is considered 1 game away from the majors.
Carlos Gonzalez - ranked #18 to #32 over the years pre-2006 to pre-2007; had been a hotshot for a while. At the time of the deal, had just hit .285/.335/.480 in AA ball at age 21 as a "tweener" outfielder.
Nick Franklin - variously ranked #20 to #55 pre-2012; is currently ranked #16 hitter by John Sickels. Has just hit .320/.400/.500 in AA at age 21 as a shortstop.
A quick note on Nick Franklin. He could be Hansley Ramirez; it's a very realistic possibility. The swing is unreal. The results are there to match. Sabertistas don't care about Ken Griffey Jr. swings. Scouts? MLB(TM) shot-callers? They do sit there in the stands and stare at the mechanics. They do care about Ken Griffey Jr. swings. /note.
Supposing that Paxton and Franklin perform anywhere near military specs, couldn't we use them? ... Naaaaah. Perfect ... for anyone else. :- )
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Anderson was in the low minors at the time of the Dan Haren trade; CarGo had a bat very similar to Franklin's but coming from an outfield, not an infield, position. James Paxton, and Nick Franklin, as they stand right now, are superior assets to what Anderson and CarGo were at the time of the Haren trade.
The reason that Beane was able to score such a rich haul on Dan Haren was that he'd made Haren available early. Haren still had three cheap, club-friendly years remaining; he scored 6 WAR per year for the DBacks at $4, $7, and $8 million.
If you were going to package James Paxton, Nick Franklin, and filler for somebody, it had better be exactly the player the Mariners want. We're not talking Alex Gordon or Billy Butler here.
Zduriencik talks about "getting this thing where we want it." The talent pyramid, BELOW the 25-man level, is THERE. He is sitting on premium, premium trade assets. And a lot of them.
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Student loans: The bane of my existence
I had visions of taking over the world when I was in high school. I was going to be wildly successful and have everything I ever wanted or dreamed of. When I went to college, I did all the things that college kids did and found that I wasn't the best anymore.
I didn't mind and when I graduated, I still had those dreams of being successful. Unlike many other students, I graduated with a relatively low amount of debt - only about $30,000. I had gone to a private hoity-toity school, so I definitely counted myself lucky.
It had that six-month grace period where I didn't have to make any payments, but the problem was when that six-months was up, I still didn't have a job. I was married and we were living, barely, off my wife's income. We had accumulated significant credit card debt, back rent, utilities, etc.
I finally got a job as a reporter, which was steady and rewarding, but not much money. We started to work on getting out of our debt, but by them people were calling us, sending us nasty letters and that made it difficult. We were young and easily taken advantage of by creditors and soon the student loan people were garnishing my wages.
After they started the wage garnishment, I stopped caring about them. They were getting their money and it took years to claw my way out of the other debt. Flash forward and the miniscule amount my paycheck was giving them wasn't enough to even put a dent in it. In the meantime, interest rates were going up.
So here I am, 10 years later still working off that damn debt. The funny thing is that I didn't even really need that college education for what I am doing.
Write of the Living Dead
As a horror writer, I can't help but notice the glut of zombie novels and books that are out these days. You can't seem to read anything horror without bumping into a few zombies around the way. I get it, zombies are hot right now, but too often writers don't understand how to write about zombies.
Thanks to George Romero and others, zombies have a folklore about them now. Sure, you can pretty much make up the rules as its your book, but the audience is going to expect a few things and if you don't portray them correctly, then it's going to turn them off. “Write of the Living Dead” is a writer's handbook on how to write about the living dead.
It's pretty tongue in cheek, but the information they provide is actually very good and relevant to the genre. That's right, genre. Zombies can no longer be shelved under the general horror category and have become an entity in and of themselves. I've read many how-to write books in my day from the stylistic like Stephen Kinds to the dry and deadpan of many scholarly texts.
This book is not only informative, but entertaining. The writers realized that unless you're a diehard writer, no one is going to sit through a 300 page treatise on ins and outs of writing about zombies. Instead, they chose to, pardon the pun, liven it up a bit. The writers poke fun at the genre and themselves throughout the book and it was a true pleasure to read.
If you are a writer who wants to join the undead bandwagon, then grab this book and treat it as your bible.
Peace be with you
If you're looking to show off your Zen-like peace through your jewelry, you need to check out the Tokyo-based Gyamjo Jewels. The beautiful and unique shapes in these pieces are unlike anything else you can find on the market -- major plus. Even better, everything about these collections, from the selected forms to the material used, are inspired by peace and goodwill -- major plus-plus.
Gyamjo, the designer who leant his name to his line, wants his work to express inner peace and unity. The symbols in his jewelry are actually Tibetan numbers, and he engraves the word "peace" on the back of each pendant. Gyamjo infuses the stylistic curves of the numerals with the natural curves of the female form to create jewelry that is at once powerful and extraordinary.
Gyamjo also uses materials that signify peace (cords, stones and special pendants) in the hopes that the symbols encompass the harmony of family, heart and mind.
Unless you're fluent in Japanese, the official Gyamjo Jewels webpage won't be of much use to you. It will, however, give you a glimpse of some of the options not available elsewhere. But if you want to get some real shopping done, head over to Gyamjo's Boticca shop, where you'll find all of the pieces you see here, and much more.
Enjoy!