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There's a cool article here that offers, admiringly,

In 2011, the Giants scored 570 runs. They finished with a wRC+ of 87, the fourth worst mark in baseball. Put simply, the Giants couldn’t hit, and their best hitter — Carlos Beltran — was a free agent.

The Giants didn’t re-sign him ... in fact, they didn’t sign anyone of note last winter. ... they traded for Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera and signed Gregor Blanco to a minor league contract, essentially building an entirely new outfield from scratch with players that weren’t wanted by their previous organization. Then, they handed shortstop and first base over to rookies Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt. That was their offensive makeover. That was the plan to fix an offense that couldn’t score.

The Giants just won the World Series, beating the crap out of the team who spent $214 million to sign Prince Fielder last winter.

Repeat after me ... you don’t need a power hitting first baseman or a true slugger in left field. You don’t have to hit home runs.

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One thing Dr. D sincerely likes about this argument is that --- > it does not try to argue that one particular paradigm is correct.  The logic is scaled back to argue that the favorite paradigm is feasible, that it is one of several legitimate macro strategies.  It goes on to subtly concede that the distasteful $214M Prince contract was not insane.  

Small favors, Mrs. McCready :- )

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=== Honda Civics vs Stars & Scrubs ===

Asking what the 2012 Giants prove, is kind of like asking what it proves if Rod Carew bunts Darin Erstad to second base ... and Carew winds up safe at first.  I dunno, what does that prove?

Readers tell us they enjoy Dr. D's hero worship of the Founding Father.  Here's a Hey Bill:

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In a tie-game in the 9th inning, you're the home team and you get a lead-off double. Do you have such a dispassionate proclivity towards bunting that you'd rather have three chances to drive that run in from second instead of a lone chance from third? Obviously all situations are different, I get that. But, of all the bunting situations, is there one that doesn't suck as much as others to your mind?

Asked by: soprismb

Answered: 10/29/2012

Well, playing Ballpark baseball, I do bunt sometimes, if that tells you anything.   The arguments against the sacrifice bunt are sufficient to convince me that you don't want teams bunting A LOT, but they're not sufficient to convince me that there are no times when a team should bunt.

 

An interesting study in the bunt is actually the Cardinals of the 1940s, under Billy Southworth.   Here's a dominant team that led the league in sac bunts every year, often by huge margins.  In 1943 the Cardinals won the National League by 18 games--and led the league in sac bunts by 53 (173-120); they bunted so often that six of the other seven teams were under the league average in bunts.   They finished 105-49.  

 

It's a situation that challenges our assumptions about the bunt.   The Cardinals were not using the bunt to try to manufacture a run out of scarce opportunities; rather, they were using the bunt to ensure that they cashed in their abundant opportunities at some reasonable rate of return.    They had LOTS of runners on base in the early innings; they would bunt to try to get ahead 1-0 or 2-0....in essence trading off potential big innings for frequent one-run and two-run payoffs that enabled them to win 70% of their games.   I think it would be difficult to establish that if they hadn't bunted like fiends they would have won 110 games, instead of 105. 

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Another time, Bill said that MLB managers ask him for advice.  Frequently.  Usually he tells them, "Don't bunt.  But as to the rest of it, do what you feel is right.  Most issues can be argued two ways," or somesuch.

In other words, after 35 years of research, James tells the managers ONE thing:  don't bunt.  Much.  And even there -- couldn't you sometimes bunt and it be the wise thing to do?

..............

Stars & Scrubs, in the abstract, that it is a General Principle you want to use, that is one of the very few baseball things that Dr. D is absolutely sure about.  It's like saying you want to swing away rather than bunt.

But hey.  What if it's Rod Carew bunting?  ... what if it is Pat Gillick using 25 Honda Civics, and he's got a magic ability to point at Arthur Rhodes and say "THAT one," and then do the same with Mark McLemore and Bret Boone and Mike Cameron and John Olerud and Aaron Sele and Jeff Nelson and 12 other guys?  Maybe Brian Sabean is developing into the 2010's Pat Gillick.  Doesn't mean everybody in the lineup should be bunting ....

If I wanted respect for being cheap with a buck, I wouldn't use one playoff team that took the winter off and then saw Melky Cabrera go bananas.  But I could sure use Pat Gillick's 4-for-4 day at the plate, 16 total bases, four franchises and four lousy teams turned into four great ones.  Can you win without hemorrhaging cash?  Sure.  You just gotta be Pat Gillick -- or somebody who was temporarily as lucky as he was good -- or a GM who seems to be trying to prove that he IS as good.

.............

Swinging away is better than bunting.  But might you watch Ichiro or Gardner or Pierre lay down a bunt and watch a third baseman fire the ball down the RF line?

The 2012 Giants were a verrrrrry cool team.  They took a laissez-faire to the offseason, shrugged their shoulders, stuck a Civics roster into the slot machine, and the bells and alarms started blazing.  Good on them.

A Civics team might win next year too.  Doesn't mean you want to bunt to lead off the game.  It does mean you owe the bunters their due amount of game respect.  They'll beat you if you play too far back.

NEXT

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Get You One, supposedly a rummy-type card game that Puggy Pearson cut his teeth on.  It was a game in which each player maneuvered for position, then had to give his opponent Last Chance to draw and play out whatever points he could.  "Get You One" (from the draw deck).

The 2012 Giants were put together ... using a model the 2013 M's might want to snip?  Well, let's see:

• The Giants' pitching had a teamwide 95 OPS+
• The Giants' hitting had a teamwide 107 OPS+
• The hitting was based on a 170 OPS+ from Posey, three Russ Branyan scrubs, and a long slew of 85-95 OPS+ from internal guys

The Giants did get two pretty decent internal contributions from Belt (124 OPS+) and Sandoval (124 OPS+).  This would be like the Mariners getting that from Seager, Saunders and/or Jaso - oh, wait.  The Mariners did get that much. 

How about the slew of 85-95 OPS+ performances?  Casper Wells, Mike Carp, Justin Smoak, Jesus Montero, all those guys are already giving near-100 OPS+ performances.  Huge black holes are no longer the M's problem.

In order to emulate the 2012 Giants -- if that's what you wanted to do -- you'd need two things:

• You'd need Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, or somebody to hit like Buster Posey did.
• You'd need three super-cheap Russ Branyan scrubs who cashed in like Melky Cabrera, Angel Pagan, and Marco Scutaro did.

Offhand, I can think of one cheap Scrub that the Mariners ever brought in who gave them a Melky Cabrera 2012 performance.  That being Russell Branyan, who Jack Zduriencik advance-scouted from Milwaukee.  There are probably one or two that I'm forgetting.

If you want to understand the Giants' 2012 miracle, here is the guts of it:

• Angel Pagan came in on a 1-year make-good deal, $5M, and gave the Giants 4.8 WAR.
• Melky Cabrera came in on a 1-year make-good deal, $6M, roided up, and gave the Giants 4.6 WAR in 70% of a season before getting suspended.  (That's effectively 6 WAR, with the jobshare partner.)
• Marco Scutaro came in midseason, hit .362, and gave them 2 WAR in about the last third of the season.

That, and Posey's 170 OPS+, was the big offense that made up for the 95 ERA+.  It's kind of like that soup the kid made in Ratatouille.  Even he wouldn't have been able to make it the next night.

I'm not trying to be contrary.  That's my analysis, for whatever it is or isn't worth.  If you want to bet your next offseason on your ability to come up with three Russell Branyans simultaneously, Jack, it's your funeral.

The Giants took the 2011-12 winter off, closed their eyes, and hoped against hope.  It worked out.  Good on them, but I'm not modelling my own offseason plan on that.

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=== The Hidden Value of Scrubs:  Get You One ===

One of the main reasons that roto sharks use Stars & Scrubs:  the more you cram into the top 5 slots, the more $1M players you have who can overperform their contracts.

You buy a $5M Angel Pagan and a $6M Melky Cabrera to draw a card.  Get You One!  You're paying for 1.0, 1.5 WAR but who knows.  They might get you 3 WAR or 4 WAR or.... for the Giants, their three Scrubs got them 5-6 WAR each in the second half.

The thing is that dynamic, talented young players also Get You One.  Mike Carp has the same chance of overperforming his salary that (say) a discounted Johnny Gomes would have.

Get it?  "Got it!"  Good.  -- a team without young talent takes a flier on Russell Branyan because that's its draw at the 3-WAR deck for 1-WAR money.  But the Seattle Mariners have a dozen 3-WAR draws as it stands.  You've got Smoak.  You've got Ackley.  You've got Montero.  You've got Carp.  You've got Wells.  You've got Liddi.  Hey, Eric Thames is a draw at the 3-WAR deck.  Nick Franklin is.  John Jaso is ... whoop, he already flipped and is a face card.  You get the idea.

Let's run the positions real quick:

• 1B - Smoak, Carp - no point in importing cheap vets for a draw here
• 2B - Ackley - no point.  (Also Seager, then Franklin are draws at 2B)
• SS - Ryan - married to him; he WAS 2.7 WAR in 2011; Franklin behind him
• 3B - Seager 3.6 WAR last year
• C - Jaso 2.7 WAR in 70% of a year.  Montero is a draw we paid Pineda to pull
• CF - Saunders 3.0 WAR last year if you consider fielding neutral

No way in the world you import vet scrubs at those positions.  You've got two positions left to work with.  And why opt voluntarily to pull Scrub draws in LF and RF when you've got the money to do better than that?  Is 'cause you like drawing cards?  You gotta spend your money someplace.

The Scrubs part of the roster strategy, for this particular team, is pounded into mincemeat already.  You know what to do.  Cheap young Scrubs are looking good at every infield spot including catcher, and at CF.  Two Yahtzee slots on the card, LF and RF, and Ichiro's salary miraculously and suddenly gone.

Earlier somebody axed, why not a handful of our best and brightest for Wil Myers, AND a big contract for Josh Hamilton or his ilk?  ... um ... what else exactly is there to do with this roster?!

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