Rough season opener for the Nuggets
A low scoring loss isn’t exactly what Denver expected the Nuggets to deliver at their season opener in Philly. They definitely didn’t expect their starting PG Ty Lawson to have an off game after getting a big extension. But, with a new look, and some new additions having to visit their previous team all on opening night, the stage wasn’t exactly set for a run-n-gun shootout that us Denver fans have come to love.
The Nuggets were without one of their top scorers in Danillo Gallinari, but were hoping to get more out of their big off-season acquisition in Andre “Dre” Iguodala. Dre was acquired from Philly in a trade that saw Dwight Howard go to the Lakers, and big man Andrew Bynum make the move to Philly.
Known mostly as a defensive specialist, Dre looked more like a man looking for an identity than an Olympic Gold Medalist and all-star. He forced some unnecessary shots and tried to be more of offensive force than his pervious role allowed. He did knock down his first jumper, but only scored a meager 4 points in the second half.
The 84-75 loss shouldn’t strike panic in Denver. The Nuggs are a young team with a new look, and it will take a few games to find their stride. The Nuggets have their home opener on November 6th vs. the Detroit Pistons. Catch them this weekend in Miami as they take on the reigning NBA champion, the Heat.
Stayin' On the Porch
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Q. Why would the Royals trade Alex Gordon? They just traded for Ervin Santana, trying to win in 2013.
A. The Royals' payroll these days is below Oakland's. Their entire team payroll last year was $63.1M. Here's their 2012 payroll; sort the dollars column.
Gordon's and Butler's contracts, by Angels or Rangers standards, are small. But by Oak, KC or TB standards those are big checks the teams are writing. The guy behind Gordon is Wil Myers, supposedly THE number one prospect in baseball. We are not talking about waiving Alex Gordon here; we're talking about cashing him in for super-talented $480,000 ML players the Royals absolutely love. ... as it pertains to their shopping Gordon in the abstract.
If you are the GM of the Royals, Rays or A's and you are not alert to this - cashing your year 4, 5 players for tremendous year 1 players before it becomes an emergency year 6 situation - you're being derelict. For example, Billy Beane traded Dan Haren with three years of club control left, getting back Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Anderson and several other players.
Could even be that the Royals took on the $12M, knowing that a Gordon deal is imminent; that's the way Billy Beane worked things in Moneyball.
But I don't know that the Royals want to move Alex Gordon. I do know that if I were them, I'd be shopping him -- for the same reasons that Billy Beane is always shopping his year 4, year 5 stars. These small-market teams are in a CONSTANT process of fighting the year 4-6 clocks. Every time you can back the clock up from year 4-5 to year 1, and do it to your advantage, it's a good thing.
*Asterisk: Maybe because of the TV money, the Royals are about to raise their payroll from $63M to $85M or somesuch. Maybe in a new 30% inflated environment, the Royals' whole Moneyball Year-5-to-Year-2 waterwheel no longer applies. But I doubt it.
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Q. Why would you say the Royals are interested in Paxton? Teams have scouts at games.
A. Among other reasons: because Baker, onsite, said that the Royals looked specifically interested in Paxton. Were you there to specifically see them not look interested? QED.
And because, why wouldn't they be. Seattle fans just cannot seem to grok what an ML-ready ace is worth. The Seattle inferiority complex is soaking their brains in nasty meningitis fluid.
Hey, just you watch. Until we deal for Wil Myers, the line will be "no way in the world you can get him." The very day we trade for Myers, that line will switch to "Well, let's see whether he can hit." As with Jesus Montero right now. You feel me? :- ) And the day we trade away James Paxton, guess what the feeling will be about him?
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Q. Maybe the Royals are talking to Jack Zduriencik about James Paxton for a bag of balls. Maybe Jack wants to trade James Paxton for Bruce Chen.
A. Asked and answered.
Zduriencik has shown that he's Stars & Scrubs. The near 6-for-1 for Adrian Gonzalez, the Cliff Lee trade, the laser-focus on Smoak and then Montero (the very tippy-top minor leaguers on the market), the free agency chase of Prince Fielder. Last winter, Jack was interested in nobody less than Fielder.
Zduriencik thinks more of Paxton than Dr. Detecto does. MORE. ::MIB interstellar cockroach demanding sugar:: MOOORREEE
Get your bearings back and then hit The Stalk. Spec has a rundown of the star-power Royals bats that Zduriencik might consider dealing James Paxton for. Come on: if Zduriencik is in a conversation about Paxton, you think it's to acquire a backup middle infielder?
Seattleites seem to like staying on the porch. ;- ) Like they've grown fond of drizzle and 50 degrees out. You get into a coffee routine ... hey, isn't it Pumpkin Spice Latte month?
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Q. How about specific names here?
A. Sure, and ... whoop!, it's URL-count time. For a prompt and cheerful refund of your SSI subscription fees, dial 1-800-STALK...
NEXT
Stayin' On the Porch, 2
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Q. Does SSI like Alex Gordon?
A. Me? Actually I think he's something of a WAR mirage. My guess is that Zduriencik wouldn't give Paxton and Nick Franklin -- both wayyyy underrated in the blog-o-sphere -- for Alex Gordon. Could be wrong. Anyway: if Alex Gordon were to be our franchise player, the guy we built around, I'd shift my attention to pitching pretty quick.
But if I were going to make the case for Gordon - the centerpiece of 13's fine offseason plan - I'd point out that he's not very different from Shin-Soo Choo. Here they both are, neutral park, neutral team, 2013, if both healthy:
| AVG | OBP | SLG | Def | WAR | HR | RBI | |
| Choo | .290 | .380 | .460 | meh .. OK | 4 | 20 | 85 |
| Gordon | .300 | .370 | .470 | +5 runs | 4-5 | 20 | 85 |
Choo had a couple of .300/.400/.500 type seasons in there, years in which he was a poor man's Edgar Martinez. I don't see Alex Gordon that way offensively, but he is a very classy player. Choo used to be a notch above where Gordon is now; could be that now Choo is a half notch below him.
Similar players, lotsa walks, gap power, .300 hitters, all-round game. Used to be this kinda player was underrated. Now they're so underrated they're overrated.
13's plan involves a 110 OPS+ and 110 ERA+ right NNNOOooooowwwww. It's a cool plan, an original one, and crisply executed.
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Q. Why does SSI like James Paxton better than other sites do?
A. I saw some fanpoll in which Paxton was rated the #4 young M's pitcher, like with 7% of the vote, behind even Erasmo Ramirez...
Other sites don't grok James Paxton's glorious mechanics, his college K/BB ratio, or the fact that he missed a year - you make allowances for small BB/9 hiccups. From an attack perspective they don't grok his overhand delivery, the lightning in his arm (up to 98 MPH), and the fact that he just flat has a lot more talent than Danny Hultzen.
I'll guarantee you that Zduriencik is with SSI on this one. Paxton would be the #1 M's youngster even if he weren't the readiest to pitch in the bigs, which he probably is.
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Q. Other sites say that Paxton is nowhere near ready for the big leagues.
A. Other sites swore on their mothers' graves that Michael Pineda's fastball and slider would be be crushed by major league lefties. SSI is your go-to site for who is ready. And we're humble, too.
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Q. Are Paxton and Franklin "elite" prospects?
A. Well, define elite... Tim Lincecum 2007, is that the minimum standard for that adjective?
You tell me who the Royals are going to get back, for Alex Gordon, that exceeds James Paxton. Gimme a name. ... anyway: if Nick Franklin isn't going to get an "elite" return then you know what to do. That's right. You don't trade him. (See post last week on the Dan Haren trade.)
There's a school of thought that says the M's don't yet have the stack of chips they'd need to play at the $100 table. If THIS stash of prospects -- 7 guys in the top 100, 9 in the top 120 -- is not enough to run with the Big Dogs yet, then I'd blinkin' like to know when you think it's going to be.
The Mariners might never, in your lifetime, have a better set of upper-minors prospects (including Erasmo, Capps, and Pryor) than they have right now. If you're still claiming we should cross our paws, lay our jowls on the porch floorboards and let the big dogs belly up to the ice cream truck, you're out ta lunch. We mean it in a good way.
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Your friend,
Dr D
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Area 13: the Value of Trades
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The last couple of weeks, Dr. D has returned to an old favorite pastime. What did they call it ... dowsing ... no, lousing up ... no, BROWSING the net. Thass it. Surfing and stuff. D has been clicking on hyperlinks in the sidebars of websites. It's got to stop, or we're going to hemorrhage the rest of what little quality we'd been trying to retain.
One reason it will ruin us, is because we blow our legs off on land mines like Thirteen's Offseason Plan Post at Lookout Landing. It cost me like, two hours' worth of noodling up data on scrubs like Logan Morrison. Thirteen's plan is so well-thought-out that had it been signed by a Baseball Prospectus author, it would have been one of the events of the offseason... SSI does get one side benefit, the coming dozen or so freebie articles that it can slam off Thirteen's heavy lifting.
Another reason it's going to ruin us, is because we keep running into bizarre stuff. In this case, off-site responses that declare 13's fundamental flaw to be that .... he's using trades to make the team better. Actually trades move talent around; free agency purchases are what add talent. Eureka! See how simple baseball can be? :- )
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=== The Value of Trades ===
Thirteen's hyper-intelligent plan does pivot around the fulcrum of Stars & Scrubs trades -- in this case
Trade SP James Paxton, SS Nick Franklin, SP Blake Beavan, OF Trayvon Robinson and SP Victor Sanchez to Kansas City for LF Alex Gordon and SS Christian Colon.
Trade CF Franklin Gutierrez, RP Shawn Kelley, OF Phillips Castillo and 3B Alex Liddi to Miami for OF Logan Morrison, IF Donovan Solano, and OF Jake Smolinski.
In the comments, amigos follow on with trades like these:
1. Trade James Paxton, Brad Miller, and Brandon Maurer for Wil Myers.
2. Trade Franklin Gutierrez, Blake Beaven, and Carlos Triunfel for Logan Morrison.
3. Trade Kyle Seager, Victor Sanchez, Stephen Romero, and Erasmo Ramirez for Brett Lawrie.
Studying 13's plan, Dr. D braced himself for a blizzard of protests a la "Why do homers always want to trade our castoffs for other teams' jewels" but 13 had cut that off at the pass, by giving KC about $1.50 on the dollar for Alex Gordon. He still ran into some of it, but it was manageable.
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The Authorities, seeing 13's plan, sniffed "Don't be naive. Trades just move talent around. Free agency adds talent."
:: blinks ::
1. 13's plan had a big free agent aquisition.
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2. By the anti-trade logic, none of the 80 trades last winter had any reason to exist? None of the GM's thought that trades could lead to a better W/L record?
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3. Jack Zduriencik has stated that his goal is to add a big bat, either in trade or in free agency. If the "Trades don't add talent" logic be sound, Jack Zduriencik hasn't gotten the memo. (Zduriencik traded for John Jaso, Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi last winter.) Billy Beane hasn't (just last winter he traded for Seth Smith, Josh Reddick, Tom Milone, and 10 other players).
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4. Deals tend to take a [50c + 50c + 50c for $1.00] structure. Even if this "moves talent around" on the first level of perception ... it adds talent through its opening up of a portal at the bottom of the 25-man roster (for the team getting the Star) or by freeing up money (for the team getting the Scrubs).
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5. If you open Hole A to fill Hole B (Kyle Seager + ? for Giancarlo Stanton), it could be that you like the minor leaguer (Nick Franklin, Alex Liddi, Stefen Romero) who will fill Hole A.
This isn't an esoteric idea. John McGraw, a hundred years ago, called it "dealing from strength to fix a weakness."
As 13 aptly put it in the comments:
Teams don’t create holes to fill holes? Yeah, I guess the Mariners wouldn’t ship off their #2 starting pitcher in order to fill their hole at catcher, leaving a spot for a replacement level guy like Blake Beavan in their rotation. Wait, they did? Well, the Royals wouldn’t move their 4 WAR left fielder for a rotation arm, leaving a bad player like Jeff Francoeur with a job. Wait, they did? Those moves just happened last offseason? Crazy!
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6. Any time you trade [Player A, $0.75 Consensus Value], for [Player B, $0.75 Consensus Value], it gives you a chance to exploit your own vision of what Players A and B are worth. Jason Vargas was worth $0.25 when Jack Zduriencik thought he was worth $0.50. Every trade is a chance to assess a player better than other people have done. This isn't just theory. It's consistently how roto championships are won. You think Hisashi Iwakuma is mediocre and I think he's good. On Endy Chavez, it's vice-versa. Let's trade.
Billy Beane traded for Seth Smith last winter, under this premise. Jed Hoyer traded for Chris Volstad with the same "let's see who assesses him better" idea.
We both get one extra chance to be smart. That's what makes a ballgame! If I were a real GM, I would make as many trades as politically feasible, because if I am indeed 10% smarter than you, my chances to prove that are better in 30 trades than in 2 trades.
7. - 100. etc.
101. Dr. D doesn't know why he took the time to refute this objection to 13's plan. ... oh yeah. Because the 2013-15 Mariners simply must start trading quantity for quality.
Drive home safely,
Jeff
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Amid the destruction and devastation of Sandy, heroes emerge
We all knew that if forecasters were right, parts of the Northeast would be dealt a devastating blow from Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy when it hit earlier this week. Sadly, they were right, and now all up and down the East Coast, people are dealing with the shock that always comes with a natural disaster of this magnitude. In the days to come, we'll likely continue to hear horrific stories of those who survived -- and, sadly, didn't survive -- come to light. In times like this, I try hard to focus on whatever positives I can.
My heart goes out to everyone affected by Sandy. One thing I learned, from surviving and recovering (slowly, ever so slowly) from a massive weather-related disaster is this: Heroes emerge during the most trying of times. We're starting to realize just how many people are willing to do anything and everything to help others, even when faced with a life-threatening storm.It would be impossible to name all of those heroes who have emerged in the wake of Sandy, but some stood out immediately in my mind: New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, for his round-the-clock efforts to get help to the most badly stricken areas of his state, for one.
New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who told people in Zone A of the NYC area to get out well before the storm hit. He saved lives with that evacuation order, no doubt. I do know a thing or two about disaster recovery, and I know that it needs to be a combined effort of federal, state and local officials all working together towards a common goal. When it works, it really works -- and so far, I'm impressed.
Other heroes include the utility crews from all over the country who are helping to get power back on as quickly as possible to millions. I learned today that one of our local Alabama Power crews is busy helping out in New Jersey. It's tiring work, and to me, they are heroes.
To the first responders, the people who absolutely put the lives of others ahead of their own in any situation, I thank you. You are all heroes, and I can only hope as more stories of heroism emerge in coming days that everyone will stop to appreciate what you've done.
Yes, even when faced with the worst possible disaster, Americans do pull together. That, folks, is great news. If any of you are in the hardest hit areas, I wish you the best recovery possible. It may not seem like it now, but you will get stronger from this and you will rebuild your communities stronger and, in most cases, better than before. Eighteen months later, I finally have the perspective to say that.
If you'd like to highlight your own heroes from the storm, please do, in the comments. We'd all love to read them.
One tour I’ll actually take
I’m cheap. In fact, I’m very cheap. Luckily, while traveling, I also typically enjoy cheap activities, such as reading, writing and plopping down in the middle of an interesting place and people watching for days. While many travelers find these things interesting as well, some like to ruin the cheap, backpacking destinations for the rest of us, and encourage locals to start turning everything in to a tour. Shame on them.
Though I render myself a hypocrite with this post, there is one tour I encourage everyone to do while visiting Laos. On the sleepy river island known as Don Det, everyone should dish out $25 and go on a full day kayaking tour around the southern part of the Mekong River. The tour can be booked on literally every corner of the small island, and all of the attractions that are advertised on the hilarious signs are included in your trip.
My tour started at 8:00 a.m. with a decent breakfast through our travel company. The place was called Mr. B’s, and though the waitress didn’t seem to find my humor charming at this point in the morning, my full breakfast with coffee and water was definitely provided. After breakfast, the others in the tour and myself were given life jackets, dry bags, and traditional Asian hats for sun protection to start the trip.
The actual tour starts at the pier in Don Det. Travelers are partnered up to share a two-person kayak, and the group heads towards the adjacent island, Don Khon, to see one of two large waterfalls. The first session of kayaking takes about 30-45 minutes, and is accompanied by a 15-minute hike to the falls. Though the falls look more like a natural tributary, the scene does show falangs how the fish they eat at their guesthouses are caught.
After the falls, another hour of paddling left us in open water, in search of the rare Irrawaddy dolphin. Though it isn’t promised that every group will see dolphins, before finding port in Cambodia for lunch, my group and I were lucky enough to watch 3 of the highly endangered mammals play gracefully in front of our kayaks.
The final attraction of the tour is a visit to the largest waterfall in Southeast Asia, known as the Khon Phapheng. The falls themselves aren’t impressively tall, but the wide spread cliff generates an immense amount of power, and the normally calm Mekong River becomes quite raucous. The price of admission is included in the tour, and most groups spend about 30 minutes to an hour taking in the sight.
Though tours may not be my forteit, doing a full day of kayaking on Don Det is well worth it. Besides, supporting positive tourism in this place, as opposed to the western bars offering, “happy shakes,” and joints will have a much better impact on the local community.
Monks in Myanmar
One of the most interesting aspects of a visit to Southeast Asia is encountering true Buddhism. This can come in the form of riding public transportation with monks, waking up early to see the daily offering, or visiting one of the many temples and monasteries found in the different countries. The practices, temples, devotes, and all aspects of the religion change from country to country, giving curious minds a great introduction to the religion.
With poverty being rampant throughout rural areas in Southeast Asia, Buddhism offers a way of life two many families unable to afford schooling for all their children. Staring at a young age, children will begin to live at the monastery, similar to moving to a boarding school. Though they have no say in the matter, the children will be raised as monks, living, worshipping and adhering to the teachings of the Buddha.
Though spirituality can be a beautiful thing, one issue that pops up around Myanmar is non-devout monks. This can be a child who was placed in the monastery at a young age, who now live as they please, yet still take advantage of perks of being a monk. It also can be as simple as someone wearing monk robes and terrorizing tourists. Regardless, fake monks, or non-devout monks, are an issue for tourists visiting Myanmar.
Fake monks can be recognized through an array of strange habits. Some will ask for donations directly, while others can be seen pestering tourists at bus and train stations at odd hours in the night. Many also can be seen smoking or drinking, which are both forbidden by the religion.
There are true monks in Myanmar, so don’t be afraid to seek wisdom while visiting. Stay safe on your travels, though, and do your best to avoid those taking advantage of the religion.
Pike Place destination: Matt's in the Market
If you're looking for a charming happy hour destination in the Pike Place Market, off the beaten tourist path, look no further than Matt's in the Market. Established in 1996, the quaint restaurant is a jewel in the market, with a view of the iconic Pike Place Market sign, unmatched ambiance and delicious libation and nibble pairings.
Arriving at 5:30 p.m. for happy hour at their bar appeared to be the perfect time because their eight bar stools filled up quickly thereafter. The light wood bar, candlelight and knowledgeable bartender induced select appetizer and wine choices for two diners.
Intimate, French-inspired ambiance for diners
Our initial glasses of happy hour red wine paired well with spiced nuts and olives of all shapes and sizes. The first glass and bites were followed by a second glass with soft cheese variety similar to Brie, currant jam and small, buttered toast. Because it was happy hour, we accompanied merguez sausage and boudin noir charcuterie cuts, artisan baked bread and Plugrá salted butter with a third glass of wine. Go happy or go home, right?
Citrus, herb and seafood aromas teased our appetites as the conversation and wine flowed, no doubt products of Matt's specialty seafood stew and lamb rack. Although we didn't remain for dinner, if Matt's happy hour is any indication of their dinner menu, yours truly will surely return in the near future to indulge this interest. Try Matt's in ihe Market for lunch, happy hour and dinner, Monday through Saturday.
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NFL Stats & Stuff for Week Eight
He may not light up the scoreboard, but you can't argue with the 18-of-19 for 3 TDs that Alex Smith of the 49ers put up in their 23-3 systematic crushing of the Arizona Cardinals.
Smith has maxed out at 35 attempts (in a loss to Detroit) this season, but in the Niners' wins he's been usually in the 20s in terms of passing attempts.
It seems to be working, since San Francisco is 6-2 and took a two-game lead over the Cardinals in the NFC West with the victory.
Smith trails only Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan in the passing ratings. Hard to argue with that.
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Speaking of Peyton Manning, he's got the Broncos back in first place in the AFC West after two straight wins. Denver routed the Saints, 34-14, behind 22-of-30 passing from the veteran, for 305 yards and 3 TDs.
The 4-3 Broncos are the only team in their division with a winning record.
As for the Saints, their little two-game winning streak was snuffed out, and, at 2-5, their chances for the playoffs look very remote.
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And then there's that Matt Ryan guy ... only going 22-of-29, also for 3 TDs and 0 INT, and leading the Falcons to 7-0.
Looks like he's headed for a playoff showdown with Smith, or Rodgers, or Eli Manning.
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Or ... Jay Cutler. He's ranked No. 23 in the passing ratings, with 9 TDs and 8 INT, and only a 58.1% completion percentage (well below those other guys). But there are the Bears sitting at 6-1 with a five-game winning streak.
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Doug Martin took the ball 29 times for Tampa Bay and ground out 135 yards, the best number in the NFL for Week 8.
The Boise State alum has shown the ability to play on fields without blue turf. He had games of 85 and 95 yards earlier in his rookie season, but this week was his first time over the century mark.
The running game is helping Josh Freeman have a solid year, and helping keep the Bucs on the fringe of the playoff hunt. Martin's big game helped Tampa Bay rout the Vikings, 36-17, despite 123 yards from Adrian Peterson on the other side of the ball.
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We started with efficiency, and we'll end with inefficiency. Tony Romo managed to convert 62 passing attempts into only 36 completions and 1 TD, with 4 INT in a loss to the Giants. New York safety Stevie Brown had a pair of interceptions in the game. Brown also had eight solo tackles.