Freedom of the Press - liars!
It’s the day before the 2012 Presidential Elections. I am a political junkie so even though my wife and daughters ask me not to, I listen to every news channel I possibly can. I suspect there are many people—of both political persuasions—who do the same thing. Regardless, it’s maddening to listen to the different sides castigate their opposition and tout their own virtues. I realize my party is doing the same thing as the opposition. I also know that this is a necessary part of campaigning.
God knows, the incumbent has drawn a stark picture of the next four years just as though he traced it over onionskin paper from the reality of where the last four years was depicted. The incumbent also wants to give everyone except the income earners everything they want, whether legal citizens or illegal citizens. The stench of socialism is heavy in the air.
At the least, the challenger has experience in business. He has been a CEO, entrepreneur and has operated small and large businesses. He has vast experience in business, finance and administration. We need these attributes now more than ever in recent history.
The challenger is accused of adopting different positions depending on what state in which he is campaigning. Through my observations, I don’t see either candidate as more or less guilty then the other.
Obviously, this article is not an objective one; I definitely have a bias. I believe I deserve it more than President Obama deserves a pass on the Embassy attacks in Egypt and Libya and the lack of performance regarding the federal response to the ravages of Hurricane Sandy.
Newspapers and electronic media are hypocritical, dishonest to the point of participating in an unlawful conspiracy. They enjoy freedom of press because they are supposed to report the true facts of any event that occurs in government, business or private matters.
God knows they sure as hell were critical of George Bush. They are not critical at all of Barack Obama. They should be stripped of the blessing of freedom of press and see how long the liars can survive on a level playing field.
Senate Homestretch: Bottom Line
It wasn't that long ago that the U.S. Senate had 60 Democrats (including independents who caucus with the Democrats). The Republicans have now whittled that down to 53, and they thought going into 2012 that they would have a good chance of obtaining a majority.
Now, those chances look like a longshot at best, though the right kind of breeze could still carry the GOP to control of the Senate.
Don't forget: if there is a 50-50 split, then the party with the Vice President (presumably the winning ticket, unless a bizarre "shotgun marriage" were to occur) will gain control.
[Of course, if the party with the Vice President has 49, then presumptive Maine independent Sen. Angus King could put his vote "in play." For whatever reason, the national media has declined to take King at his word, and has assumed he will caucus with the Democrats no matter what.]
Let's look again at how we classified the races:
- Democratic seats in real trouble: Nebraska, North Dakota, Montana
- Democratic seats hotly contested (dead heats): Wisconsin, Virginia
- Democratic seats leaning retention: Missouri, Connecticut, Ohio, Pennsylvania
- Republican seats hotly contested (latter two leaning retention): Indiana, Arizona, Nevada
- Republican seats in real trouble: Maine, Massachusetts
Republican upside:
1. Winning the three Democratic seats in real trouble would put the GOP at the +3 they need to pull even.
2. Massachusetts could be a surprise, but Maine is set for King. If they hold the three closely contested seats (and Arizona and Nevada look good for the Republicans), losing only Maine would bring them down to +2.
3. Then picking off both of the two dead heats and one other shocker (Pennsylvania?) would bring the GOP to +5.
In that "upside" scenario, the Republicans end up with a 52-48 majority and don't need the Vice President or negotiations with King.
Democratic upside:
1. One of the embattled Democrats sneaks through (most likely might be incumbent Sen. Jon Tester in Montana).
2. Indiana falls to the Democrats, plus a surprise in Arizona.
3. Both dead heats go their way.
That scenario would result in two losses, made up for with four pickups (Maine, Massachusetts, Indiana and Arizona). That would give the Democrats +2 for 55 votes.
[In that case, King would certainly fall right into line.]
Realistic outcome:
1. All three Democratic "trouble" states fall to the GOP.
2. Indiana, however, is a pickup for the Democrats.
3. The dead heats split.
The realistic scenario gives the Democrats three pickups (Maine, Massachusetts and Indiana), offset by four losses (Nebraska, North Dakota, Montana, one of the dead heats). But the Democrats would still hold the chamber with 52 votes, and King would still be a non-factor.
But ... what if the Republicans hold on to the Indiana seat ... or .... take both of the deat heat races. It's not that far-fetched.
That scenario would bring the GOP to 49 and the Democrats to 51. But the 51st vote is King. If the Republicans win the vice presidency, then they would be in a position to negotiate to give King the balance of power. Since he could give them the 50th vote (which prevails with the vice presidential tiebreaker), instead of giving the Democrats their 51st.
My assumption is that the Republicans would rather have King as the "kingmaker" than Harry Reid. King may not listen to their overtures, but if this scenario happens and the Republicans negotiate to put King in charge, remember you heard it here first.
Two overlooked but extremely helpful job hunting tools
Getting creative in your job search may be the answer for more job seekers, especially in this economy. From crafty cover letters that mock press releases to humorous social media ads, people in the job market these days have found some successes in thinking outside the box.
While the above-mentioned tactics may be calculated risks that have worked for some in creative industries such as advertising or marketing, most potential candidates will need to find less drastic means of getting their foot in the door. Here are two largely overlooked, creative ways of getting from on-the-hunt to on-the-job.
The Informational Interview
An informational interview is a key way to get insider info about a company, field and position you’re interested in. This creative tool nets three wonderful benefits to those who use it correctly: 1) You gain critical interviewing skills and experience, 2) You’ll build and enhance your network and networking skills, and 3) You may acquire new and timely job leads and referrals.
Think of the informational interview first as a method for doing deep research on your desired career and/or company, and second as a way of garnering leads and referrals.
Follow the steps outlined at Monster.com here to get your informational interviews up and running.
The Networking Letter
Another creative tool you should be using to gain valuable job leads is the professional networking letter. Writing a professional letter that both updates and casually informs those you know that you are on the market can often be quite effective.
E-mail blasting a generic yet carefully crafted letter out to all in your contacts list with a request to forward as appropriate might contain a subject line that reads: From the Desk of [your name here:] Status Update.
However, a more targeted approach will yield better results. In fact, if you have uncovered a connection through your LinkedIn network, you’ll specifically address the individual and use the body of the private message/email to ask for an introduction to the appropriate employee.
Always start by updating readers with what you have done lately to enhance your skill set and stay relevant in the desired field. The first paragraph should briefly tell readers what exciting new activities, skills, and/or credentials you have gained while in transition.
These two tools can be powerful, effective and creative means to your job seeking endgame. Often, the only barrier to utilizing such tools is a lack of confidence or ability in personal communications.
To overcome these barriers, the next post will show you how to approach your personal communications by example. Until then, remember to focus on putting your best foot forward and as always, good luck!
Reading Pile: 11/5/12
Dancer TP- I love Nathan Edmondson’s 'Who Is Jake Ellis' title, and I really enjoyed Nic Klein’s artwork on the series Viking. The two of them make a solid team for this spy thriller and even manage to defy one of my cardinal rules; clone stories are always going to suck. That’s not really a spoiler as the series embraces the concept pretty quick, but if you want to read a piece of fiction that wasn’t absolutely destroyed by the clone plot device (Spider-Man Clone Saga, 60% of X-Men continuity, Attack of the Clones), then you should give this a shot. It also reads like an action movie that you really want to be made so you don’t have to settle for the other schlock that’s coming out. It’s decently priced at $16.99 as it collects the entire five issue series along with all the covers (reprints as well) and some bonus pin-ups and designs. A
The Rocketeer: The Cargo of Doom #2 & 3- All of my enjoyment was derived from Chris Samnee’s drawing of dinosaurs wearing jetpacks. Everything is just delicious comic icing on top. But seriously, I must own that page of artwork. A
Lot 13 #1-I’m generally a bit bored by Steve Niles, but this was an ok first issue that set some stuff up that I’ll be interested to see develop. I’m sure a lot of the strength of the issue came from Glenn Fabry’s artwork, which holy crap it has been a long time since I’ve noticed him doing any interiors. Fabry still has that innate ability to make humans look ugly (but in a good way), and that certainly lends to the tone of the book. I wouldn’t say this issue knocked it out of the park, but they made it to first base and I’m willing to watch the rest of the game. B
Joe Kubert Presents #1-The Hawkman story that kicks off the book is a treat for the eyes and makes me sorely miss the pre-52 DCU. If the choice is between this Hawkman and Captain McScabby Armor Von Liefeld, then that’s not really a choice. The gorilla quota was also filled and I'm happy, especially considering it was Angel and the Ape with some great artwork by Brian Buniak. Sam Glanzman’s U.S.S. Stevens piece is also a nice inclusion for a much darker tone to counterbalance the sci-fi and comedy. The one thing to take particular note of is that this is forty-eight pages of uninterrupted stories with no ads whatsoever with the exception of an in-house ad for other Joe Kubert novels. For $4.99, this is definitely worth picking up as DC did a great job on the package. A
Getting familiar With Mexico City
I recently visited Mexico City as part of my job as a grocery company Sales Director operating in the Southwest United States. The goal of the trip was to study Mexican supermarket merchandising so we could apply it to Spanish speaking customers at our stores. Our trip was well directed by a bevy of Mexican representatives of companies who supplied products for our stores here in the states. We stayed at a nice hotel in the very center of the city which in addition to making it convenient for our daily tours also gave us an insider’s view of life in Mexico City.
My first surprise was when the sales reps told us they would arrive at the hotel to take us to breakfast at 10 a.m. Of course, I woke up and was showered, shaved and dressed by 7 a.m. I walked downstairs for coffee and saw most of my co-workers gathered around a large table in the center of the dining room. Our cell phones were pretty much inoperative.
We had previously decided that our boss would call the office several times a day and then notify us Directors if we needed to make any calls to solve problems in our departments. Since we couldn’t use the phone we decided to take a stroll on the blocks about the hotel. At 8:30 in the morning, we found the streets and sidewalks to be very lightly traveled and many closed signs on the doors of street-front businesses. At first, we assumed that the perception we had of Mexico as the “land of manana” was right on the money!
It was only when we began to discuss our stroll around the area that our guides explained that Mexico City was much like European cities. Business began later in the morning and extended into the evening. Meals were eaten in mid-morning, late afternoon and late evening. As we started our tour I began to look at the city through the prism of European cities. Sure enough, the clothing of people on the streets—now that the workday had begun—was stylish, attractive and the people appeared sophisticated and professional.
As we toured the supermarkets, we found them to be clean and heavily stocked with well merchandised products. I was amazed at the amount of fresh produce purchased by what appeared to be almost every customer. We arrived back at the hotel about 7 p.m. and were told we would meet in the lobby to go to dinner at 8 p.m.
By the time we arrived at the restaurant, ordered and received our food it was almost 9 p.m. We finished a leisurely dinner at 10:30 p.m. and then went to several reputable nightclubs afterward. Once again, we were surprised that the night was just getting started and would go as long as we wanted; the European analogy seemed to still apply.
We, however, were beat and went to bed early, at least the Mexican guides thought so.
Changing the church's contract
I cater from my restaurant. My usual business revolves around church and company functions, family reunions and large barbecue dinners. I recently booked an event for a church that involved upwards of 800 people. I made an initial bid, won the job and got my usual contract signed and sealed. However, a week or so before the event I received a call from the financial manager of the church wanting to meet. This made me somewhat nervous because within 30 days of the event, there was supposed to be a no-changes-rule in effect.
As it turned out, I had a good reason to be nervous. The business manager neglected to include in his planning the fact that they would be hosting some high officials of the church. He was pretty upset at himself for forgetting this fact. He went on to explain that he had gotten the contract approved and the money set aside, but there was no money available for upgrading the menu or the tableware.
He wanted me to figure out how to add upgrades to the food, cutlery and tableware while staying within the dollar amount we had previously agreed on.
Obviously, this didn’t set well with me because I was looking at $1,500 in cutlery and tableware alone. Additionally, I would have to employ a minimum of six more staff at $15 per hour to handle the cutlery and crockery, wash and repackage it and then be responsible for breakage.
I wasn’t so worried about the menu changes. I had a lot of options up my sleeve to upgrade the food without it costing me significantly more money.
I pled my case to the financial manager and even pointed out that I had already collected a $2,500 deposit and the language in the contract didn’t really give him any room for changes without additional charges.
I really wanted the 800 members of the congregation as well as the church to actively partner with my restaurant for future events. After some thought, I proposed that I would stand the additional costs associated with the upgrades if the church agreed to give me its business at my listed cost per person for the next two years. Also, I would like for the church to distribute a pamphlet of the goods and services I offered to the business owners in their congregation. They could decide for themselves—after attending the outdoor dinner—if the quality of goods and services fit their standards.
He agreed to the terms, we put them on paper and started to prepare for the event.
He stuck to his word and we did get extra business from the church members. It took me at least a year to recover the difference in the money between the original and the adjusted contract. However, I made a full profit on jobs I got from the business owners in the church. My restaurant picked up a lot more business and I even got business from other churches after my friend the business manager gave them referrals. I made a good move when I did not simply demand that he stick to the original contract. Everybody was happy.
Alex Gordon vs Billy Butler
Mo' Dawg sez ...
Gordon's nice, he ain't special. ... Gimme Butler and we will talk. But I'm not 2 fer 1'ing for Gordon.
To which 13 confidently replies, "Huh?" ...
Gordon hits almost as well as Butler while playing great defense at a much more valuable position. I'm not sure where the idea that Gordon isn't a uber-talent is coming from, because I've seen it a couple of times here... the last two years, Gordon's been the third best LF in baseball. Only Trout and Braun seem like good bets to be consistently better. To put things in perspective... last year, by fWAR, Gordon was worth almost two of Butler. The year before, he was worth almost four Butlers.
Don't get me wrong, Billy's a great hitter. But while I'd twofer for Gordon, I don't think I'd do it for him.
.
=== Pro-Gordon Camp ===
The argument for Alex Gordon, in this 2-player smackdown, is simple and obvious. As 13 says, if Alex Gordon hits almost as well as Billy Butler, and is a great defender, then obviously he's simply a better player.
Fangraphs gives 5.9 and 6.9 for Gordon's WAR totals the last two years, meaning that he has added about +60 and +70 runs to the Royals' ballclub above what a decent AAA player would have done from left field. Billy Butler, on the other hand, calculates out at 3.2 and 1.8 WAR the last two years, a total of 10.2 the last four ... meaning that (if Fangraphs' assumptions be legit) then Country Breakfast is adding only about +25 runs per year over what a good AAA DH would add.
A simple argument and it has traction. How could there even be a case-against?
.
=== Pre-Butler Camp ===
1. Butler makes less money than Gordon, who is paid for his advantages. (It's not a lot less; Gordon is signed at a tremendous club-friendly contract of $11M x 4 years, while Butler's at $9M x 3 years.)
2. You may have a better alternative player in mind for LF than you do for DH. Maybe Alex Gordon isn't necessarily better than whoever you've got slated for left field ... (We cheerfully admit that this point also is fairly weak.)
3. Maybe Butler's bat is legit and Gordon's is dubious. Here is what Mo is getting at, we think.
There are a lot of guys whose WAR hits 5 for a year or two, and they turn out to be mirages. You might recall Chone Figgins. Production is a different issue than is talent. I don't say that Alex Gordon is a dead man, but I certainly have questions about how well he'll hit the next two-three years.
A lot of sabermigos sniff, "His OPS+ was 141 and 126 the last two years. That's the correct projection for him the next two." NO WAY HO-ZAYYY. What a player did in the past is NOT his "correct" projection going forward. It's not as simple as that, and GM's don't make decisions like that. You have to judge what you expect from Alex Gordon going forward. The man who judges it right, that man's team wins games.
Watch Butler hit and you get real images of Mike Sweeney. His production seems much "harder" than Gordon's, and Butler has upside remaining. At age 26 he raked for a .313 / .373 / .510 slash line, 29 homers and 107 RBI, and there could be considerably more coming. From a tools standpoint he's huge and strong, takes a VERY compact path to the ball, and if there's going to be a way for pitchers to adjust to him ... I for one can't imagine what it would be.
.............
You have competing paradigms. Who gives you the most WAR? Certainly Gordon has done so, but since Chone Figgins the Seattle blog-o-sphere has learned to use WAR with discretion. Who gives you a difference-making bat, one that "legitimizes" the lineup against tough pitching? That's Billy Butler.
.
=== Two-Fer Dept. ===
Having acknowledged the case for ... Dr. D isn't actually all that enthused about Billy Butler. If you're getting a pure DH, or a lousy first baseman at best, you'd better be getting a franchise bat. Edgar was cool as a DH, but he was one of the great right hand hitters who ever lived.
Dr. D watched James Paxton in the AFL All-Star game. POTD forthcoming, but I'll tell ya this much. Dr. D isn't trading James Paxton, period. All this stuff about giving him, and Nick Franklin, up for a fairly-good club controls player ... you'd have to be loco.
I've got no idea why the blog-o-sphere doesn't get James Paxton. But they'll see.
BABVA,
Dr D
.
Senate Homestretch: Republican Seats Hotly Contested
Indiana: If the Republicans lose the Indiana Senate seat, it will go down as part of a growing list of seats it fumbled away despite clear advantages. State Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R) mounted a grass-roots, Tea-Party fueled challenge to incumbent Sen. Richard Lugar in the GOP primary, and prevailed. Ordinarily, the Republican nominee could have cruised home, but Mourdock had alienated Lugar’s supporters, who proved to be difficult to reclaim.
Not only that, his opponent Rep. Joe Donnelly (D) ran a stronger campaign than expected.
Even then, Mourdock should have had the upper hand, but he didn’t ever quite get his act together, and made another unforced error in the final weeks.
That being said, Mourdock could still pull out the win, since GOP turnout is expected to be strong, and Donnelly’s vote in favor of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) is still a major issue.
There are not enough polls for a RealClearPolitics Average, but Donnelly had a slight lead in the most recent Rasmussen poll.
***
Arizona: The race in the desert was hot for most of the campaign season, but may have broken late in the direction of Rep. Jeff Flake (R).
Flake had a hard time shaking the aggressive challenge of former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona (D), who had served under President George W. Bush, and had a number of other non-partisan achievements on his resume. Carmona’s independent appeal and Hispanic heritage gave him a boost that, for awhile, it looked like Flake might have a hard time overcoming.
But Flake was able to raise some serious issues about Carmona’s temperament and personal conduct and help revert the race closer to the state’s natural partisan tilt (in favor of the GOP). Late polls show Flake pulling out to a decent cushion.
RealClearPolitics.com Average: Flake 50.5, Carmona 45.0
***
Nevada: As with Arizona, the Nevada race seems to be settling in as a GOP hold. Appointed Sen. Dean Heller (R) could never quite break away from Rep. Shelly Berkley (D), the union machine and the Harry Reid organization to has pulled unpopular Democrats to victory before, but it appears that Berkley’s ethical issues are a bit too much baggage this time.
Heller hasn’t given Berkley much room to get traction, and the polls have now quite consistently shown him with a solid lead.
RealClearPolitics.com Average: Heller 48.0%, Berkley 44.0%
Sam Worthington's Atlanta meltdown: What happened?
I get that actors have big egos, and to some degree, I understand why. When one chooses a profession where one is constantly judged and under the microscope, it's important to have the confidence necessary to shine. That being said, I have zero tolerance for celebrities who, no matter how talented they are, act like idiots.
Avatar actor Sam Worthington is, unfortunately, the latest example of an idiotic, misbehaving star. His meltdown outside an Atlanta, Georgia, bar is pretty epic. No, it's not quite on par with Gerard Depardieu's decision to urinate on the floor of an airplane last year, but it's pretty close.Here's what happened: Apparently, Sam Worthington is in Atlanta right now filming the new Arnold Schwarzenegger action movie Ten. For some reason, Worthington decided he wanted to go out, and he took a limo to the swanky Vortex Bar & Grill. When he pulled up to the establishment, the bouncer wasn't sure what to make of it, mainly because Worthington was wearing dirty clothes and *carrying* a pile of clothes. What?!
Can anyone blame the Vortex bouncer for questioning whether Sam Worthington should be allowed in the restaurant/bar? Worthington reportedly went totally ballistic when the bouncer said he couldn't get in, and at one point, he even claimed he was a DEA agent (he plays one in Ten). According to TMZ, a very irate Worthington was also "drunk." The bouncer, identified as Jerry Link, exchanged heated words with the actor, pepper sprayed him -- and Worthington was eventually charged with disorderly conduct. Here's Worthington's beautiful mug shot. Lovely, yes?
Unfortunately, the charges against Sam Worthington were dropped early today because the bouncer didn't appear in court. He claims he didn't even know he needed to be there (really?). Here's the thing: Worthington got away with acting like a horse's behind, and throwing his celebrity around. He really needs to learn how to behave in public, because it's hard to respect an actor who is this much of a nut case.