GOP Debate in New Hampshire Tonight

   

Tonight's CNN New Hampshire Republican Nominee Debate is the first real debate among the relatively coalesced Republican field. Participants include Rick Santorum, Michelle Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Herman Cain. In fact, they are arranged in this order on the St. Anselm College stage in Manchester, NH.  Evidently the rationale for the order, according to a spokesman for sponsor CNN, in order to have the highest-polling individuals in the middle, thereby creating more interesting photo opportunities. Romney takes the coveted middle spot because of his prominence in polls, and his status as the "hometown candidate", according to Vanity Fair, though it's a bit of a misnomer as he is really from Massachusetts, 45 minutes away.

     This is the first major presidential debate of the 2012 campaign, and will be characterized just as much by the people participating as the people that are absent; chiefly Jon Huntsman, former governor of Utah, Sarah Palin, and Rick Perry, governor of Texas. This debate will largely set the precedent for several campaigns tonight as potential nominess attempt to differentiate themselves from one another (Bachmann from Palin), lesser known candidates attempt to build their platform (Cain, Pawlenty, Santorum) and the best known candidates attempt to plug some gaping holes in their party's support.

     First and foremost will be Romney's attempt to differentiate his healthcare plan from Obama healthcare reform laws that will, mostly, go into effect in 2014, but that largely used the Massachusetts plan as a framework and the Republican Party has been attacking it and him ever since. Look for Romney attempting to stiff arm those allegations and dodge questions around it.

     Pawlenty is going to go on ad nauseum about his conservative track record in Minnesota. He'll attempt to place himself in a position on economics that relies heavily on his tackling of the state's over $4 billion in debt. Speaking of Pawlenty, it will be interesting if his fellow Minnesotan, Michelle Bachmann, decides to play nice or nasty. The two will probably keep it cordial this early, but there are no guarantees.

     The social conservatism issues may not be too prevalent tonight, unless Santorum or Bachmann attempt to make them their golden ticket. The evangelicals and social right are still largely up for grabs, and one of these two may make a power play for them.

     This may be Newt Gingrich's swan song. The guy has had a horrific start to his campaign and, most recently, his campaign's senior advisors quit...all at once. He needs to make an impression tonight or it could be the end.

     Godfathers mogul Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul will most likely use the debate to grab some headlines and further their name recognition.

     Highlights will certainly include more of Ron Paul's Libertarian-izing from the pulpit of the most Libertarian state in the country (Legalize drugs, legalize prostitution, and instead of taxes let's take turns carrying the government around in our pocket!) Also be ready for some Bachmann misquotes and fuzzy facts and figures (Please God, put Palin and Bachmann in a debate together and let them argue one another into different dimension of reality). I'm hoping that something will break Romney's cheese-eating smile, and I'd love to see opponents' attacks back him into another moderate stance on anything (energy, global warming, healthcare, economics). Finally, be prepared for some absolutely imbecilic comments on the value of unregulated markets and corporate special interests to repair the economy and spending cuts to public services to eliminate our national debt. Tune in to CNN at 8 p.m. EST for the circus.