Ames Straw Poll News: Perry Announces Entrance, Bachmann Wins Straw Poll, Pawlenty Bows Out

    

The Ames Straw Poll has been called by Mike Huckabee, the 2008 winner of the much-hyped event, "the most important meaningless event in American politics." I think that's an accurate description. The front-runner of the poll hasn't won the general election since 1999 with George W. Bush, so it isn't very predictive in the grand scheme. That said, it does make some difference among the Republican public that pays attention to it. It weeds out the bottom-runners fairly early, which is particularly helpful when there's a veritable herd in the race, as is the case this year. Thus, Michelle Bachmann is not likely to take the nomination, and the GOP herd is about to be culled somewhat. Here are a few reactions to the most important meaningless event in American politics.

     It's no real surprise that Bachmann won the straw poll, despite Tim Pawlenty's best efforts to unseat her. TPaw came in third, even after several weeks of television ads, stumping across the state, and Bachmann-centered barbs that came to a head in Thursday night's debate. Despite his best efforts, however, Tim Pawlenty has not made headway, has not challenged his fellow Minnesotan Tea Party poster girl, and thus Pawlenty announced he would drop his Presidential bid. In a party dominated by Tea party ideology, there's no room for someone so unaccustomed to playground politics and radicalized rhetoric.

     However, the real loser in this poll is Rick Santorum. Santorum has consistnantly taken the bottom ratings in polls, which he and his staffers have deflected by saying that they're not taking a traditional route in this campaign. That untraditional route is really just a return to 19th century politics, with Santorum knocking on doors and doing dozens of townhalls and small venue speeches across the state. Santorum has eschewed the mainstream media spotlight, mostly because he didn't have a choice. They didn't want to talk to the low man on the totem poll (shut up, it's funny). Unfortunately for Santorum, his 19th century approach didn't work and he got a measly 1,400 vote return for all of his "untraditional strategy". He'll likely be done soon.

     Bachmann's win is bittersweet. She may have taken the straw poll, but it was by a very slim margin (less than 200 votes) against Ron Paul, who came in second. If this is just an indicator of the candidates' abilities to get out the vote, Bachmann and Paul are essentially tied. However, the real front-runner in the race, Mitt Romney, didn't even participate in the straw poll. Romney's absence means that the straw poll this year is even less predictive than it normally is, and that Bachmann really only won among the pack of strays lagging far behind Romney's substantial lead in approval ratings.

     The other wild card on Saturday was Rick Perry's announcement that he was entering the race, effectively stealing much of the spotlight from Iowa's straw poll and Bachmann's win. Perry is a favorite, even getting 800 write-ins in the straw poll without even being, at the time, in the Presidential race. Most important, however, is that Perry's popularity may not only overshadow Bachmann's meager victory, but may prove a real contender to to Romney's so-far untouchable front seat in the GOP field.

     One thing is certain, Perry's decision to announce his entrance in the race was a controversial one. Many Republicans, particularly those in Iowa who felt their precious straw poll was undermined, are calling the decision political. Really? You think? With Perry's entrance into the race, it sounds like Romney is going to have to turn and finally face his opponents. So far he's largely ignored his competition, which lagged far enough behind that it proved to be a valid strategy. However, Perry has already shown that he's willing to swing low in this campaign, and if he proves to be a real challenger to Romney's nomination, Mitt may have to jump into the fray to protect his pedestal.

           See Perry's announcement vid below.