This year, play Reading Bingo!

How do you find new books?

Random House Canada has created this handy bingo card for 2013 to help readers push themselves to find new books, and read things they might not otherwise try. I am loving this bingo card, because it really does an excellent job of representing a wide enough range of books that everyone will find something new. 

One of the ways I have been pushing myself lately is to choose books from O5: "A book "everyone" but you has read." As a fan of hipster lit, obviously this is the kind of book that is anathema to me. (I say that tongue in cheek, but not really.) But the thing is, sometimes a book is popular because it's really good. Why deprive yourself of a good book, just because you think it's "too popular?" 
 
Because of this principle I read the Hunger Games trilogy, Cloud Atlas, and I'm in the middle of a third super-popular book (which I shall not name for fear of spoilers in the comments). And you know what? It turns out "everybody" was right - these are great books, and I really enjoyed (am enjoying) reading them.
 
I'll be honest with you, though - for the most part, I rarely have any idea where I found the next book to read. In fact, I'm so bad about forgetting my sources that I have started adding comments to my Amazon book queue, telling my future self why I put that particular book on my reading list. (I use my Amazon wish list as an all-purpose reading list, not necessarily books I plan to buy from Amazon.)
 
Out of all the common ways of finding new books, I would say that the least successful for me has historically been I3, "A book someone recommends to you." I don't know why, but I invariably end up disliking books in this category. It's not that I'm such a special snowflake. It's just that I apparently have zero in common with my friends and family when it comes to reading material.
 
(With a few notable exceptions over the years: Cryptonomicon, the Harry Potter books, Views from the Oldest House, and House of Leaves all spring to mind.)
 
This recommendation problem is why I was so tickled to discover the Goodreads "Hipster Lit Flowchart." 
 
Finding new books is a big struggle for the Internet Age. Sites like Amazon and Powell's try to make it easy to browse sections, but it's true that you lose out on some of the serendipity of browsing a physical bookstore.
 

People Bid Santa Farewell...With Fire

These individuals, most likely Russian, decided it was time to get rid of the Santa Claus decorations. In particular, this singing robotic Santa. Well, like any good (possibly) Russian, they took to using a buttload of fireworks. Enjoy the result.

"RGB" Teaches You About Color

RGB

Additive color is the the mixing of lights of differing colors to make new colors. It is the model we use for television screens, computer monitors, and many many more. Dan McHale whipped up this beautiful little short to showcase a little of that particular model. 

A Huge Jaso Fan Does Not (Greatly) Lament the Trade

Jaso is a very good role player, but still a role player

You could look it up, if you are more inclined toward "due diligence" than Manti Te'o (sorry, cheap shot), but I was probably the No. 1 John Jaso fan from the date of his acquisition.

As you know if you've been following along, "Plate Skills" is one of the measures that goes a long way toward how much success a hitter can have in the majors.  [As in: there are a lot more "Kevin Youkilis" types who add power to their game than there are "Carlos Peguero" types who survive without a way to defend themselves at the plate.]

Anyway, Jaso had Plate Skills by the boatload.  Everything I looked at indicated that Jaso was likely to be an MLB contributor, and that he was available because of a single unlucky, injury-diminished bad year at the plate.

And I was right.  Jaso was undervalued, and he did have the kind of year that I anticipated was possible (.850 OPS).  It was the kind of validation that is heartening.

But ... there are limits.  Jaso was not viewed as an everyday catcher by those who make such decisions (they may be wrong, but I am not in a position to second-guess), and as a DH ... well, you can't ignore that career .230 SLG vs. LHP.  You can't afford to play Jaso as DH against a lefty starter.

So, Jaso is a great weapon, but in a role.  He is a role player.  A very good one, but still a role player.  [That's not a slam ... role players can be great, and necessary.]

Jack Zduriencik, then, had a chance to swap a guy viewed as a role player for a guy viewed as an everyday mainstay.

And ... he'd already done this once.  Remember Jason Vargas for Kendrys Morales?  Same deal.  A very good role player for a guy expected to contribute offense everyday.

I don't see John Jaso for Mike Morse as much different.  Jaso was not a key part of the long-range plan, and neither was Vargas.  Morse and Morales may not be either.  But they shore up an area of need, and the trades don't really create holes that can't be filled.

The key has been to develop the pipeline of young talent that will create the flexibility to build a winning roster.  That is being done.  These kind of moves are kind of on the periphery of that process, and I see this one as pretty much "no harm, no foul." 

The biggest downside is that Oakland is likely to use Jaso as the kind of weapon that he ought to be used as, and, obviously, against Seattle.  He is, in fact, a "Beane" kind of player.  I don't quite understand why the Ms didn't just deal for Morse directly, but I don't view that as enough of a problem to get outraged about the trade.

Baby Hypnotized By Guitar Tuning

This poor kid. All he wants to do is rock out to the guitar. Unfortunately for him, the man playing must tune it first, and he isn't very fast. I get you, kid. I mean, I am the same way while waiting for an oil change. 

What Would Happen If Your Body Was Exposed to The Vacuum Of Space?

SciShow tackles all the really important issues that are relevant to us all. This time, they tackle the burning question of space vacuum exposure. Because so many of us have been in space. (But really, I did actually want to know because I'm a huge nerd, so thanks SciShow.)

Our Aussie Correspondent Delivers

Choi video from Down Under

You asked for it, and our helpful correspondent in Australia has delivered the video of our man Ji-Man Choi hitting a double for the Adelaide Bite.

The Thursday, January 17, game at Melbourne is already over, and Choi got yet another hit, giving him 36 hits in 33 games down there.

Thanks again, Tar Heel!

 

Fangraphs Stat Columns We'd Like to See

... granted, we didn't include the DL stat

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In addition to the famed wOBA, wRC+, and WAR statistics, we'd like to recommend that Fangraphs include the following metrics on each player card.  If these factors were viewed in formal publication on a reputable geek site, these variables would then be deemed to actually exist in space-time, and much GM-fan disconnect and heartbreak could be avoided.

Including but not limited to:

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REUP - the chance, expressed as a percentage, that a newly-acquired player will sign a below-market extension with his new club.

Last season, for example, SSI mis-stated this number as "2" for Hisashi Iwakuma, whereas the accurate input would have been "70."

Adjust statistic accordingly if the player states, upon hearing that he has been traded to the acquiring club, that the English language is an insufficient mechanism for capturing the emotions the player is experiencing.  Adjust again if the club is a re-aquiring club, if the player has a following (mostly of relatives) in the acquiring city, and so forth.

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NULLFRM - a WAR penalty of -0.5 to -1.0 per 150 games, applied to catchers not taken seriously by major league umpires.  All rookies receive this penalty.  

MLB(TM) catchers who in any way resemble the pre-Tusk, strung-out Lindsey Buckingham of course receive the penalty, but may in compensation receive quarters from fans in the box seats.

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URDUNN - a positional adjustment of -21 runs (which is -7 runs below the DH adjustment) if a player would be of most value to his team as a DH, but is actually not playing DH.  In the view of many with propietary defensive data, this adjustment applies to both sides of the recent Jaso-Morse deal.

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SUNBURN - the chance, expressed as a percentage, that a great-looking "emergent" platooooon player will decline precipitously when thrown into the chopping blades of daily-grind MLB competition.  Probably more appropriate for Rotographs than for Fangraphs.

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BOSNYY - a 50% premium, to be incorporated (as FLD and BSR is) within the WAR of any player whose primary value occurs within the batter's box itself (see Ortiz, David).  This "hard" skill, unlike UZR for example, is reproducible in all contexts.

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VNSH - that percentage of a player's walks and OBP which will evaporate when his SLG dips below .420.

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ISOMEAN - a WAR adjustment made to players with arm swings who, never having slugged above .399 in the past, are currently slugging over .450.  

Similar to xFIP, which adjusts ERA based on the assumption that "lucky" home runs will normalize in the future, and which therefore predicts future ERA based on underlying "real" skill.  

Where SLG might misleadingly read .456 in a particular season for a slender arm-swinging blues guitarist, ISOMEAN would more predictively read .408.

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LIND - applied to players who have had one OPS+ over 140, with all other seasons below 99.  

This is not a suggested statistic as such; it is represented as an asterisk in the wOBA column and leads to a footnote explaining tonelessly "DO NOT SINGLE OUT THIS PLAYER'S MOST RECENT SEASONAL WAR AS HIS ESTABLISHED LEVEL OF PERFORMANCE, YOU FEEBLEMINDS."  See Casey Kotchman, Lukas Duda, Jacoby Ellsbury, Garret Jones, etc.

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TAIJ - Payroll savings, in prospect net value dollars, when a .408-ISOMEAN'ing DH is traded in the stead of AAA pitchers worth $30M or more.  Club-controls relief pitchers are eligible for calculation in this statistic, provided that their FIPs begin with the number 2.

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TIDE - incremental rise by other players, caused by this player.  Calculated conservatively but frequently a nonzero number.

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MNTRO - Value added to the team overall when a quality fraction of a jobshare is absorbed by the superior half of the jobshare.  Where good players' exits would cause superior players (or more precious longterm assets) to assume the vacant at-bats, the MNTRO value for the good player will actually be negative.  Expressed as whole runs and leveraged victories.

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SMOKMASK - Addition-by-subtraction value, provided by an incoming player who "freezes out" any player who would otherwise have accumulated negative WAR for the club.

For example, where the acquisition of a Kevin Millwood means realistically that Eric Wedge will no longer place Anthony Vasquez into the rotation, this nasal filtering of the -1.0 WAR gas cloud is credited on Millwood's player card.

Legitimate MLB(TM) cleanup hitters are worth more to teams "featuring" -0.3 WAR first basemen.  The SMOKMASK metric captures the contextual value of a true slugger to a ballclub that would otherwise be deploying badminton players; a 900-yard receiver is worth far more to the Seahawks than the same receiver is worth to the Falcons.  Fangraphs does not yet have a metric to capture this team-contextual reality.

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ZUNZDUR - This statistic is obtained by simply subtracting two numbers:  (1) the #26 roster player's WAR from (2) the current player's WAR.

If the MLB/AAA roster carousel revolves to present Blake Beavan in the place of Michael Pineda, the ZUNZDUR statistic on Pineda's card will be positive and large.  If the AAA carousel rotates to presents a young super-stud who is of more interest than the 29-year-old journeyman leaving,  the ZUNZDUR statistic will be negative on the journeyman's card.

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JOKE - Percentage chance, expressed as a whole integer in excess of 10, that a convergence of remodeled playing dimensions, change of scenery, etc., produce a freakish 50+ homer season.

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MAGIC8 - statistic not calculated.  GM's hand-figure at own peril.

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The above stats might not be the right ones, I dunno.  But one thing I do know:  you can't use any three stats, even "2012 WAR," "POS" and "CLUB CONTROLLED YEARS" and declare the future predicted.  There are present and future contexts to weight here.  It's very poor form to oversimplify, bust a guitar over your knee, and then when somebody calmly goes "Jaso's pitch framing is -0.9 WAR per year" to just reply with "we don't know that for sure," returning to the tantrum without further ado.

"But we'll probably HAVE Morse for three years!  Why so worried about 3 years vs 1?"  ... "Re-sign Morse?  That's the only thing that could make this worse!" ... :: resume laugh track ::

 ::: sidles to door ::: I'll just let myself out, m'kay?

The question is where these 25-man rosters will BE in 4 months, 12 months, and 24 months.  What was Jaso going to be to the Mariners, in 12 months and 24 months, after Zunino got here and joined Jesus Montero, and the M's DH was also something slightly better than Casey Kotchman?!  That question isn't answered with three stats.

.............

Look, homies, if John Jaso's 140 OPS+ survives consistent exposure, even to RHP's, and if he's a reliable defensive catcher, and if Mike Morse is gone in one year, then oh yeah.  It's a deal you can compare to the Fister one.

.............

But!  If Morse gives us Tulowitzki/Cano action for two or three years, while Jaso falls back a bit to his previous levels of [lukewarm DH and excellent backup C], then it's going to be genius in hindsight.  

John Jaso has a downside scenario.  Morse's career wOBA is equal to that of George Brett and Juan Gonzalez.  

John Jaso isn't "better than Morse, one year for one year."  You're talking about an actual Major League cleanup hitter, Mike Morse, against a guy who might or might not sustain his next 350 at-bats, that being John Jaso.  The only reason Morse was available was BECAUSE of the walk year.  Baseball doesn't consider stars like Morse equal to emerging platooners IRRESPECTIVE of the contracts.  

Remember when the locals were claiming that Endy Chavez was equal to Bobby Abreu?  That's what we're sounding like, right now, to everybody outside Seattle.  They're going, Whuuuh?  You're mad about giving up the epic John JASO?  For THAT guy?

............

I like Jaso's OBP.  But Casey Kotchman has shown OBP too, a couple times now, and it doesn't mean I want that guy as my DH.  Looka the bright side:  you got a better hitter than Upton, and you didn't give up Taijuan, Furbush, and Pryor.

...........

Still haven't spent much of the payroll.

Take two chills and call me in the morning,

Dr D

 

 

Wins, Losses and Draws - the Morse Deal

It's all so plaaaauuuuuusible, but...

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Nothing unlikely has to occur, in order for Zduriencik's move to hit the triple cherries and pay off big.  As I see it, the success of the trade depends on three things:

  • Morse re-signs in Seattle past 2013, at reasonable dollars, providing a David Ortiz-type presence.
  • We have seen John Jaso's best, offensively.  He's going to step back from here.
  • Jaso isn't realistically a 100-games catcher.

Oh, and we're also assuming that (a) Morse has a couple of years left in him, and that (b) Mike Zunino is NOT a HOF'er starting in 2013.  If (a) is wrong, the deal's terrible in any case.  If (b) is wrong, the deal's fine in any case.

Would Dr. D make this trade?

No, he wouldn't have the guts.  If he were bullish on Morse's re-sign here, and bearish on Jaso to settle into lukewarm-DH mode, sure, it's an exciting deal.  But he'd be afraid that even if those three bullets are all 60% probable in his favor, well ... that leaves a 93% chance that some one of those bullets was going to blow him out of the water.  Even if you weight those three bullets 70% in your favor, you've got a 66% chance you're going down to one of them.  

That would be the trade analysis I'd give Zduriencik.  And if John Jaso, for example, is a legitimate everyday catcher, batting lefty with a .370 OBP (whatever his SLG), then you didn't want to trade him for Mike Morse.  Or, if Morse was always just a 1-year guy, then you really do run into the issue of "why is THIS club trading 2014 and 2015 for 2013?"  

But, still:  it's very easy to visualize this deal working out for Zduriencik.  Morse mash.  Jaso fade.  Very, very possible.  And it is CERTAINLY within Zduriencik's job description to MAKE HIS BEST JUDGMENT as to WHICH players mash and which fade.  I'll bet my money on the bobtail nag - somebody bet on the bay.  If that's not how a GM beats other GM's, how does he beat them?

.................

There was a catch, up above - did you see it?  We gave a 60% or 70% chance that Jaso turned out not to be a legitimate catcher, just for the sake of argument.  That would be the highest chance *I* could allow.

But!  perhaps Zduriencik's opinion of this -- based on proprietary data -- is 100% resolved.  Maybe Zduriencik just flat doesn't want Jaso catching for him; maybe secretly he knows that Jaso costs his team 0.30 in ERA, or something.  Certainly the pursuit of other catchers this winter would have been consistent with such a conclusion.  

Billy Beane does not agree.  He's got 100 George Kattaras simoleons that says Zduriencik is wrong.

If Beane slinks away from Jaso next winter, sadder but wiser, then the entire wager has morphed radically.  Now, to LOSE the deal from Zduriencik's standpoint, Jaso has to rake RHP's from the platoon DH slot, big time, like a 140 OPS+, or Jaso was just a benchie all along.  How many DH's do you know who don't get extra-base hits?

................

Zduriencik has got a 00-Green spot here, the 50-homer scenario for Morse.  The guy's power index in 2011 was 173 (!) and there's a good chance the fences are going to be crazier than anybody imagines.

 

 

 

The SoDo Hit Men

playing rotisserie with the local nine

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Right about one year ago, we celebrated the 1977 White Sox.  They went from 97 losses to 90 wins, making Bill James' top ten all-time list of unlikely reversals.  They did it precisely by punting defense.

Not only did they go from 65 wins to 90, but that's actually how much they improved, in one winter, by stockpiling DH's. They went from 586 runs to 844 runs in one winter.  Their pitching got a little worse; actually it's safe to assume their pitching didn't get worse.  :- )  But in 1977, the Sox had a 114 offense and a 97 pitching - plenty to make a run at the World Serious.

Mo' Dawg, who watched them play, summed it up neatly:

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Oscar Gamble had bigger hair than Billy Preston, but the guy could flat out hit. 

Richie Zisk was one of my favorite players of the era.  Couldn't catch a cold but rattled shots around major league parks with regularity. 

Man, Joge Orta was that team's 2B.  He was a bat first/ glove third type of guy, too. He led the league in 2B errors 4 times!  

Not many guys remember Brian Downing, but he was a terrific offensive catcher at times. 

Ralph Garr played OF like he was on roller skates......on ice.....on drugs.  He could hit, though. That team was lots of fun to watch.

They also had Chet Lemon raking, in CF, and Eric Soderholm was sort of the Ben Zobrist of his day.

.............

Last year's Mariners:

Position OPS+
C 75
1B 87
2B 79
SS 61
3B 110
LF 99
CF 110
RF 84
DH 95

So it's pretty interesting to see a few things shaking out here.  First of all, remember Jesus Montero's career splits?

Pos AVG OBP SLG
as C .309 .350 .493
as DH .242 .285 .356

For some reason that Dr. D has NEVER understood, 99,000 fans in the stands have sworn up-and-down that Montero can't catch.  What they know that we don't, who knows.  But let's suppose for a second that he can - and that, with the gear on every day, he rakes like the pheenom he's always been.  That's a pretty good step towards the 1977 Sox, a catcher who hits .300 and slugs near .500.

Kendrys Morales was gaining steam like a runaway locomotive in 2012, and he's playing for a contract this year, so let's lay him out his 2011, and give Morse his 2011 also:

  AVG OBP SLG
Morales DH .306 .355 .569
Morse 1B .303 .360 .550
Montero C .309 .350 .493

Now, you've got to include the CF and 3B who actually did hit last year.  And let's merge Wells 2012 vs LHP with Ibanez 2012 vs RHP:

 

 

  AVG OBP SLG
Morales DH .306 .355 .569
Morse 1B .303 .360 .550
Montero C .309 .350 .493
 
Seager 3B     110 OPS+
Saunders CF     110 OPS+
Ibanez/Wells LF .255 .330 .510

 

You still have your SS/2B combo, so you get to hope for Ackley to assume his throne, and all you're left with is a deal for a corner outfielder.  I'll give five or six players out of the #2 farm system in baseball and .... settle for Stanton, I guess.

Ready the Yoo-Hoo shower,

Dr D

 

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