OHIO [RealClearPolitics Poll Page]
Current RCP average: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 45.8, Josh Mandel (R) 42.8
Earlier in the year, Brown did not look like a highly endangered incumbent. Although he was usually polling short of 50 percent, he enjoyed big leads over Mandel and other potential GOP challengers. But the race has closed quickly as Mandel has united Republican support, and Brown's position has not improved.
The 34-year-old Iraq vereran Mandel has revved up the political ladder, winning a seat in the state legislature at age 27, and getting elected Ohio State Treasurer at age 31. Taking a shot at an incumbent senator might seem premature, but Brown is considered a bit to the left for Ohio, and was swept into office over unpopular incumbent Mike DeWine in the big Democratic year of 2006.
No poll has yet shown Mandel in the lead, but some give Brown a very narrow lead or tie, and Brown continues to poll under 50 percent. Moreover, Mandel has been competitive in the money chase as well. Since both parties will make a big push in Ohio, national momentum could sway this race a bit also.
MICHIGAN [RealClearPolitics Poll Page]
Current RCP average: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 48.3, Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) 42.5
Stabenow could be in bigger trouble than she is, given that Hoekstra has stumbled and struggled to unite the GOP. Unlike Brown, Stabenow has polled over 50 percent on occasion, and she's getting as much mileage as she can out of the Obama Administration's bailout of the big automakers.
But she is not widely popular, and Hoekstra appeared to be gaining ground after winning the Republican primary. Two late-August polls, however, showed Stabenow pulling back out in front, and Hoekstra does not seem to be making up ground on the fundraising gap, either.
