NEVADA [RealClearPolitics Poll Page]
Current RCP average: Sen. Dean Heller (R) 47.3, Rep. Shelley Berkley (R) 42.0
It's not all that surprising in Nevada that both parties have been touched by scandal. Heller took office only upon the resignation of disgraced Sen. John Ensign, who couldn't survive a sex-and-cover-up scandal. Whether it's Ensign carry-over or just Heller's inability to consolidate the electorate, Heller has polled generally in the high 40s, and has not looked like an overwhelming favorite.
But Berkley is running amid a scandal or her own. She is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for using her office to bring about personal gain for her husband's medical practice. Notwithstanding, she has the wholehearted support of the labor movement, which has plenty of sway in the Las Vegas area.
ARIZONA [RealClearPolitics Poll Page]
Current RCP average: Rep. Jeff Flake (R) 43.0, Richard Carmona (D) 36.3
The retirement of Republican Sen. Jon Kyl opened up this seat. Flake positioned himself well in the GOP primary, and won handily, and is the frontrunner for November. Former U.S. Surgeon General Carmona earned the Democratic nod.
Flake is conservative, but has stayed within the Republican mainstream and appears likely to unify his party. He has taken a big lead in fundraising.
Despite some polls showing Carmona close, the race is generally considered as leaning toward Flake. Other polls have shown Flake well ahead.
