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James Paxton at the AFL - the Hook
Hide the women and children, Dept.
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The AFL Rising Stars game finally delivered, at long last, our chance to view Nick Franklin and James Paxton from the CF camera. Now we would see. Time, at least for one over-eager pundit, to see for hisself which scouting reports had been in the strike zone.
Paxton took the mound in a jersey one size too big, and a pair of pants that were three sizes too big. The cap was about right and the brim hid his eyes like The Man With No Name in one of Clint's westerns. K-Pax reared back, flung the glove up, drove that hip pocket forward and whipped a strike inside. 0-1. Looks good to me, man. Lessee what you got.
It was on pitch two that Dr. D pole-vaulted up out of his chair. Paxton reared back again, whipped the arm through for the 0-1 fastball outside...
... which then popped a parachute like a Trevor Hoffman changeup. It zoomed in chest-high... no, that was Paxton's forearm that fooled my eyes. The pitch floated in chest-high, and then rolled off the top of the table and crackled in to the hitter's back foot. It was a two-plane yakker with late, hard bite.
It's kind of hard to describe the pitch shape. The young Barry Zito had that much arm action and that much changeup deception, but his curve blooped from the time of release. Same with David Wells.
Erikkk Bedard's curve has the sick late bite like that, but Bedard's curve didn't have quite the same changeup action.
Randy Johnson's power slider had the two-plane late bite with drop, but Randy's broke toward 1B out of his hand and you could see it was a slider real early. I can't think of another LH curve that comes in straight and hard like that, then pulls up short and bites in at a 45-degree angle.
Here y'go amig-O ... Paxton's curve is at 1:05 on this video. Watch it several times and key in on the first half of the pitch vs the second half of the pitch. Try to imagine yourself hitting, on the defensive against a hot lefty fastball, starting the bat early ... and then this pitch.
At times, his curve broke too much. Check the 6:25 mark in the video. When he starts it belt-high, it buries in the dirt for a garbage swing, like at the 10:30 mark.
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The first two pitches give a feel for what Paxton will be like when he gets his release point down. Blaze a mid-90's fastball in there for called strike one, then drop the hammer for 0-2 and ... how many pitches is this going to take?
A 95-MPH lefthander with an Erik Bedard curve? What would that look like? Dr. D doesn't ever remember one specifically ... CC Sabathia is kind of like that, although CC is more pitcher than he is a curve ball monster.
It's not just my opinion. The consensus on Paxton right now is "Number One starter with Number Five command." So let's think for a second about both halves of that impression...
NEXT
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"A Number One Starter" ....
Hey, if you got 94 lefty, keep it comin' all day long
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So the pro scouts rave about Paxton as having #1, #2 starter stuff and usually they are not giving much credit for the curve ball. What are they talking about?
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=== Fastball ===
In the AFL Rising Stars game, Paxton was clocking 90-93 ... it was clear that he was taking it easy, not finishing his pitches, not putting his shoulder into it. Maybe he didn't want to get hurt, revving up from a cold start.
Even so, the gun looked kinda slow; the catcher's mitt was yanking as the pitch slammed it and the hitters were behind several times. Mayo, in the booth, gave Paxton credit for an upper 90's fastball earlier in the 2012 season
In 2011, we ran this article Let the Wookiee Win, which demonstrated the amazing proportion of LHP + 90 MPH success stories there are in the majors:
There were 58 starting pitchers in the AL and NL who averaged 90.0 MPH or more on their fastballs last year. Of these, 12 threw with their left hands:
SP MPH 2011 ERA+ David Price 94.8 107 (and 144 in 2010) Derek Holland 94.2 113 C.C. Sabathia 93.8 147 Clayton Kershaw 93.4 163 Matt Harrison 92.8 131 Jon Lester 92.8 122 (worst year of his life) Gio Gonzalez 92.5 130 Ricky Romero 92.1 146 Cole Hamels 91.7 138 John Danks 91.6 97 (and 111 lifetime) Cliff Lee 91.5 161 C.J. Wilson 91.0 152 That's every left hand starter who threw 90.0 or above.
And in 2012, here's the list of LHP's with fastballs anywhere 90 and above:
- David Price
- Matt Moore
- Clayton Kershaw
- Gio Gonzalez
- Derek Holland
- Jon Lester
- CC Sabathia
- Matt Harrison
- CJ Wilson
- Cliff Lee
- Chris Sale
- Cole Hamels
- Ricky Romero
- Jon Niese
Maybe throwing 90.0 MPH and above isn't a guarantee that your LHP will be a Top Of Rotation starter. But you're telling me you don't like your blinkin' chances here? "Lots of teams have better young pitching to offer the Royals," do they. Wake up and watch a ballgame, dude!
We don't say that every minor leaguer who ever touched 91 MPH is a mortal lock to win fifteen games. The above guys do a lot more than just "touch 91 MPH." They throw hard, and they've got secondary pitches, and they throw strikes.
A lefthander with stuff as electric as James Paxton's, who has shown the ability to throw strikes? Yes he IS two-thirds of the way there. Most fans have not noticed this general truism about baseball talent development; they undersell the value of high-octane stuff from the left side.
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Paxton doesn't throw as hard as Cole Hamels or Jon Niese. He throws as hard as David Price. You're at the higher end of that velocity table. NOW how do you like your chances?
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Paxton's fastball is heavy, "CLONKING" the bats when they make contact. He's a groundball/K pitcher, like Bedard was.
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Paxton's got the EASY velocity, the velocity that comes off leverage and long arms. He's got the velo that will sustain in the 7th and 8th, the Kershaw velocity.
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=== Deception ===
Lemme catch a blow here. Take Sabathia's fastball, Bedard's curve, and now tack on George Sherrill's deception.
Paxton has a real high front side, hides the ball, comes through with great arm action, and you just flat can't read the curve until it's halfway there - wayyyy too late. Like Zito used to.
Paxton hides the ball. A lot better than most guys. Move on.
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===Curve ===
If Paxton didn't have anything but the heater, he'd be a Grade A pitching prospect. For easy velocity, for workhorse mechanics and for deception.
The curve is the best thing about him.
So why are Seattle-ites going "ahhhhh, he ain't as good as the good kids, but he's a'ight." ... ? Because 99% of 'net rats have to see a pitcher win before they perceive that he's got the goods. At what point did any other blog believe that Michael Pineda was a first-class pitching talent? Some of them are still arguing that he never was. Takes a lot to get past a label. Paxton's is that of being wild.
Whateva man. :- ) Other fans will wait around to see whether Paxton's good. You, the discerning SSI consumer, know exactly how good he is, and how good he's going to be ... pending one asterisk. And you know what the asterisk is, too.
That being ...
NEXT
The Lakers continue to take the spotlight
Been a hard time in Tinsel town.
I must admit that the Mike Brown firing came as a shock to me. Can Mike D'Antoni bring La-La land another NBA championship?
Steve Nash may be out, but I think D'Antoni may be the change that this new look Lakers need after all. Don't get me wrong, I am a big Mike brown fan. It really is tough to see a coach who has won the NBA Coach of the Year award not be able to get a championship team to their destiny.
It could be argued that the Lakers were already on a championship track after the lethargic start to the season think the Miami Heat of 2010-2011. Did the Laker management overreact? Was a change really necessary? Only time will tell, but for now let's look at some facts.
The Lakers have rebounded to a 7-8 record after a dismal start. D'Antoni comes in handy for his offensive acumen as opposed to Mike Brown’s defense emphasis. Defense will not be as important in the wide open Western Conference this season. D’Antoni’s offensive system offers players a lot more freedom and this should be vital for the likes of Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard.
Kobe has been his usual goofy self and even thinking up a hilarious nickname for his injured teammate Steve Nash. Bryant has nicknamed Nash 'Gatsby' from the character in that great piece of literature 'The Great Gatsby.'
Still, in Bryant's heart he must be wanting so bad for Nash to return so he could prove what the best point guard and shooting guard of their respective generations can do. The Lakers are down, but still not out.
... "With Number Five Control"
One thing getting in the way
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On pitches 1 and 2, James Paxton looked like every Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson or Roger Clemens he's ever winced over. Play ball, Strike one, Strike two, two different pitches, easy tempo, it's gonna be a looooooooong niiiiiight.
Then on pitch three, uhhhhh ... oh, man. On pitch four, more of the same. In fact, for the rest of the game K-Pax insisted on planting that lead foot short, impaling himself on the front leg, and totally ruining what should have been a very glorious evening.
Dr. D objects to a stiff front knee in principle, as should anybody with a basic knowledge of weight transfer. But with James Paxton this problem is absolutely 100% beyond discussion. Paxton throws the front pelvis forward, accelerates his weight SHARPLY forward. AND AS A SEPARATE ISSUE he rocks back in Lincecum style, arcs over the top, and comes downhill very hard.
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Paxton's delivery repeated perfectly, time after time ... right up until foot plant. And then he never planted the foot the same way twice. He slammed the weight into the front knee, actually hyperextending it and BANGING the knee joint harshly.
You could see his torso jerk around every which way -- sometimes he finished more upright, sometimes more leaned over. And, grotesquely, sometimes he finished leaning to the 3B side and sometimes down the centerline.
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Now here's a pop quiz: Do you let go of the baseball before, or after, your foot plant? :- )
Paxton lets go of the baseball juuust as his weight crashes UNPREDICTABLY into his front leg. And you can see the inconsistency in the way his torso finishes.
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So why don't pro scouts simply report, "Needs to fix deceleration, then will star in the big leagues"? Why do they say "Number one stuff, number five command" when they know that young pitchers have motions that are works in progress?
You tell me.
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There are four potential fixes here.
One, that Paxton will learn to work around his ugly front leg, as many ML pitchers do. It could be that his being out-of-synch, late in the year, was exacerbating the problem.
Two, the problem could fix itself if he had a physical problem in 2012. Could be he was a little out of shape, or something. In the first picture leading this series, the one in the bullpen, Paxton was stepping out fine (although his toe is pointed in, which would lock his front knee for that reason). Could be that the pain in his knee (which DL'ed him in 2012) has caused the bad habit of stepping short, and that once the knee feels better he'll step out again.
Three, that the Mariners could actively teach Paxton to land on his toe, opening up his knee. The Royals did this for Gil Meche, and it took them about four games to do it.
Four, that Paxton could become more athletic, lighter on his feet. A man who has great power-to-weight ratio has an easy time stepping nimbly out in front -- enjoys stepping nimbly out in front. Tim Lincecum throws downhill, too, but he gets that front foot out there nicely so that he can decelerate over it.
A short front foot? That's 'cause you're doggin' it, man. Don't be lazy.
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Hey. Six inches' worth of extension on the front foot is all that's standing between James Paxton and being the AL Rookie of the Year. If you don't want to coach him past it, have him do a round of P90X.
BABVA,
Dr D
On B.J. Upton
Not very babe-a-licious
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Q. Wow, who's the babe?
A. It's just a composite of a lot of different women. All the features are averaged, and the face is therefore .... very beautiful. Beauty is perceived (largely) as lack of deviation from average. A 1950's catcher with a nose the size of a banana, who's to say that's not handsome? The Law Of Normalcy, that's who.
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Q. B.J. Upton was worth 5 WAR at the ages of 22 and 23 -- with yet four, five years' worth of growth left to him. What's the holdup here? Is he ever going to become a great player?
A. It's important to avoid thinking of the classic missile parabola age-arc curves as a birthright. The "normal" age-arc curve, sharply up at 20-23, gently up at 24-27, levelling at 27-29, gently down at 30-32, sharply down at 33ff ... that is an amalgamation. We want things to be normal. It's one of nature's most powerful impulses, our resistance to weird things.
So, we're slow to believe that a terrific young player like Upton -- or Mike Trout!, bwahahaha -- might not follow expectations. We don't want to believe it.
Enter James here:
I seem to remember you writing that there was a strong correlation between the age someone established himself as a major league player and greatness. Assuming that I haven't totally distorted what you were saying, who is having the more impressive season: Trout or Harper? In Harper's favor is that Trout could not handle major league pitching at age 19. The argument for Trout is that he's made such a leap forward that Harper is unlikely to be able to improve that much in his age 20 season.
Asked by: Hank Gillette
Answered: 7/5/2012
Well, the reason that the age a player gets established in the majors correlates strongly with greatness is that (1) players have to work themselves up from level to level to level, and (2) the odds are most favorable for younger players. Considering just (1) first. ...Suppose that you have 1000 players at the level of "Regular Major League Player", and that a player must step forward four times to become a major league player (Good Regular Player, Marginal All-Star, Perennial All-Star, All-Time Great.) Suppose that 30% of players take a step forward each year. If you start player out at age 25, almost none of them will make four steps forward by age 30. But if you start them out at age 21, some of them will.
Factor (2) is that if that percentage that steps forward is 30% at age 25, it's 40% or 45% at age 21. It is never true that MOST players take a step forward or that players can be counted on to take a step forward. Many young players never improve very much, like Alex Rios and. . .what's his name, the Upton who plays center for Tampa Bay. They reach a certain level; that's just where they are. It's really unfair to those players to EXPECT them to be something that they're not.
But if a player gets established at age 21, then he has a lot more time to consolidate his gains and take another step forward.
Trading off the age 21 vs. age 19 and one level of performance vs. another level of performance, putting that all into one sausage grinder. . .well, that's complicated math, and I wouldn't have a lot of confidence in my ability to do it well or anybody else's, frankly. Al Kaline was a great player, but he was never really any greater than he was when he was 20 and 21 years old, or not much greater anyway. Ted Williams was never greater than he was at 22. Young players SOMETIMES make explosive steps forward in ways that players almost never do after the age of 25.
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Q. So, 5 x $15M for Upton. Is he worth 3 WAR per season?
A. Two WAR might be the new 3 WAR ($15M) under the inflated system. The Braves need 2-3 WAR from him to justify the contract under the new system.
As Sullivan points out here, Upton has taken a weird -- therefore ugly -- career path. He walked a lot in his early 20's, and now he's an extreeeeeeeme hacker in his late 20's. Notice how you react with revulsion to the bizarre, reversed plate trends?
;- )
But the weird, ugly EYE trends don't necessarily imply that Upton is deteriorating - that he'll SLG less than .450 in three years.
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Q. If Upton's worth $15M, is Michael Saunders?
A. Upton hit .250/.300/.450 (107 OPS+) in center for Tampa ... Saunders last year hit .250/.300/.430 (110 OPS+) in center in Safeco Field. Saunders would seem to be just at the onset of some major possibilities and has reached the value of B.J. Upton, almost before even starting his climb.
One thing it's safe to say. If you had a hole in center field, and you'd been trying to fix it for a while, it would be perfectly reasonable to spend $15M a year on a center fielder like B.J. Upton or Michael Saunders.
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Q. Where was he on that Safeco overlay, again?
A. Here is his 2012 scatter chart with the old fences.
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He had 19 homers and 31 doubles in 139 games last year. He's probably the single player you'd most identify as a roto "Safeco Fence Sleeper" for 2012.
Failing some kind of major collapse -- 25% chance -- Saunders is going to be a player you could win your next pennant with. There's probably a better chance of 30 homers and 40 doubles than of a collapse.
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Falling Between Two Stools, Dept.
A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds - RWE
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I/O Gordon: I don't mind the idea of a "vet presence for a pitching staff" but wasn't that the point of Olivo? And didn't that fail miserably? And isn't Napoli only nominally a catcher, like Montero or Jaso?
CRUNCH: :: He stops short :: If Mike Napoli, C is an acceptable version of the 2013 Mariners, what are you doing offering Russell Martin, C a bunch of money on the basis that he will jell your pitching staff? Martin can't hit. The concept there is that it is urgent to get a D specialist.
Or if Napoli, C is fine and dandy with you ... at the end of the day, why aren't Jaso and Montero acceptable to you?
We chess geeks are hardwired this way. If you spend three moves trying to get the other guy's isolated Queen Pawn blockaded, and then you trade off your blockading piece (the Knight on d5) for the opponent's Bishop on e3, because you can threaten something on the other side of the board ... a Grandmaster just annotates, "Inconsistent." and that is more than sufficient to condemn the move, to prove that the move is a bad one.
The problem is that your first plan will now fail; you won't get the pawn blockaded. And this new plan, to threaten the Queenside or whatever you tried to do in one move, is weak (insufficiently prepared). An inconsistent move, in chess, cannot be right. And when the GM annotates, "Inconsistent," it is a moral accusation. The player has lost focus, has lost the thread of the game, has gotten distracted by something and has (momentarily) become a weak player.
I/O: Maybe the Mariners aren't really scampering after a bunch of chickens in the catcher coop?
CRUNCH: We hope not. ... but the rumors have come early and often, and it's tough to imagine why the Mariners would be flying Mike Napoli to Seattle as a negotiating tactic. Granted, it could be that they're really interested in Napoli as a DH, are using Martin just to leverage Napoli, as several of you have pointed out.
This would be less inconsistent, if Montero and Napoli and Jaso were going to play 1B and Smoaked was in the past tense.
IFF the M's are urgently grabbing after Napoli or Martin, whichever will take their $$$, there is a sickening inconsistency to this Rocky-type chase after the chickens in the catcher coop. It cannot be right to pursue Russell Martin while pursuing his conceptual opposite, Mike Napoli -- and preparing to using either as the Jaso, Montero and Mike Zunino replacement. Do you need a different type of catcher or don't you?
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You gave away a young Bob Gibson wannabe in order to get a hitter you said was Albert Pujols. He did great -- hit .295 with power on the road, as a 22-year-old rookie. And he got better in the second half. Now you don't have time to let him hit .295/.315/.460 overall, at DH, for his age-23 season? You've got to flush the young Pujols out of there for Mike Napoli?
Sez TJM,
It seems clear they've made a decision to get a new catcher which means somebody has to go. Jaso is the only lefty in the entire group so you'd think he'd be a sure thing to stay, especially since he was not incidentally the team's best hitter and one of its best baserunners. That leaves Montero and Zunino and I sincerely doubt they'd move Zunino, which leaves you with the question: What is Montero worth?
Last year, when he was judged to be a future MOTO bat with no position he was worth one of the best young righthanders in baseball. Is he worth more or less now? The consensus judgement seems to be that he is worth less.I don't really understand why. I simply don't buy the repeated asseertion from other sites that Montero failed as a hitter. I thought for a young catcher in his first full season he hit remarkably well - killed lefties and improved as the season went on against righties. Montero and one of the Big 3.5 would get you what?
Of course, it doesn't matter at all what I think or even what Jack thinks. It matters what other GM's think and by now Jack would know the answer to that. Seems to me he wouldn't be pursuing another catcher so vigorously if he didn't think he could make a good deal on Montero either now or by mid-year when Zunino has had another few months in the high minors.
Word. ... on those same blogs, it has dawned that in the same age-21 season that Mike Zunino just had, Jesus Montero was up to the big leagues already and having a spectacular cup of coffee with the Yankees. And that .295/.315/.435 (road) is impressive for a 22-year-old who has trained defense first.
From a scouting standpoint, Montero covered all parts of the plate with authority, and his EYE doubled in the second half. His line drive rate was SKY high from June on. Jesus Montero looked very inch the part in 2012.
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A foolish consistency? That's when you are inflexible and won't adapt to new ideas and new situations. If a sniper took John Jaso out from CLink stadium, then rejecting Mike Napoli might be a foolish consistency.
Granted, Mike Napoli is Jay Buhner with a catcher's mitt, and every team he's ever played on has been good. Napoli's an excellent ballplayer. But he plays the ONE position at which the delta is tiny.
I think youse guys' instincts were sounder than mine on this one. SSI has been too open-minded about an idea that is worthless from start to finish. The Jays better be offering Lawrie for Montero, that's all I got ta say.
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The Fibonacci Tool
A commonly used technical analysis tool across the globe.
Fibonacci does not have to sound Greek. The natural numbers (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9) owe their introduction to Europe to a thirteenth century mathematician named Leonardo Fibonacci. Fibonacci might be famous for a lot of things, but it is the technical analysis tool - the Fibonacci Retracement - that is both relevant and important for us stock traders.
Stock traders love the Fibonacci tool because it is so popular among traders. It is a known fact that when a multitude of traders do the same thing, this will shift the market in a certain direction. This is true of Fibonacci and it is why traders use it as a sought after tool to reap rewards.
Not everything is rosy about this tool as you might have guessed (especially if you are a regular reader of my blog posts). The problem with the Fibonacci tool has to do with the subjectivity of the identification of the swing highs and swing lows in a stock's trend. Additionally, Fib levels are nothing more than support and resistance levels. Every support and resistance level will be broken and this will cause problems for traders.
Still, the Fibonacci tool is important to know about and should be used along with other tools for greater accuracy. Here is how to use the Fibonacci tool:
Identify a swing high first: this is a candle with at least two bars with lower highs on either side. The swing low bar is similar but it has higher lows on either side. Take a look at the image:
Source: http://www.binaryoptionsthatsuck.com/the-fibonacci-tool-for-support-and-...
This is a great trading opportunity for an investor who has spotted the Fib levels. Watch for confirmation by way of the bounce which came off here at the 50 percent Fib level.
It is in trending markets that Fibonacci levels perform the best since the price will usually get support in an uptrend and continue to surge.
NFL cheerleader shaves her head to raise money for cancer research
Megan M. says she hopes to "help reach others."
Last Sunday in Lucas Oil Stadium was a special day. Yes, the Indianapolis Colts were playing the Buffalo Bills, but the game almost took a backseat to the actions of one brave cheerleader. Megan M. shaved her head, hoping to raise awareness for cancer research.
The shaving happened in front of 60,000 fans, and proved a poignant and fitting tribute to Colts head coach Chuck
Have you heard about ChuckStrong? It's an organizational campaign brought about by Indianapolis Colts coach Chuck Pagano's own struggle with leukemia. Money raised via ChuckStrong goes to support research, and so far donations are pouring in left and right.
Now, thanks to brave Colts cheerleader Megan M. (her last name isn't made public), even more people across the country know about ChuckStrong. Megan and fellow Colts cheerleader Crystal Anne shaved their heads during Sunday's game after fans raised $10,000 for cancer research. She said she would do it, the donations eventually exceeded $22,000, and in front of everyone, Megan let the Colts mascot, Blue, do the honors.
The money raised through ChuckStrong will go to help other cancer patients in Indiana, by allowing more research. Hair grows back, and with or without it, Megan M. is a beautiful soul for doing what she did. The Indianapolis Colts organization should be very proud of Megan, because she represents the best of the best.
Megan appeared this week on ABC's Good Morning America, explaining why she made the decision to shave her head, saying:
I’ve had family members and mentors [with cancer] and I volunteer at a local children’s hospital and met little girls who lost their hair and saw the bravery that they possess and it was just something that I wanted to do to help reach others.
If you would like to learn more about ChuckStrong, you can visit the official Indianapolis Colts' official website to make a donation.
Global macro investing strategy
S&P 500, United States Dollar/Japanese Yen & FTSE 100
Investing outside of the United States was a recommendation that I made on the last post on this blog. So I thought I'll act out this suggestion (mind you, I did get heat for this). I am basically going to be listing global indexes and securities that I am bullish about.
S&P 500
Hey, America is still part of the world the last time I checked. I think the fiscal cliff will soon be addressed appropriately (it's what I gather from the news and the politicians, anyway) and the holidays will drive stocks up. There has also been economic data that has been positive although the S&P 500 has declined the last week. The S&P is always an opportunity for a trader.
United States Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
Forex trading is a gold mine that hasn't been discussed as much on this Investment Talk blog. I promise to talk more about it and should even have a feature solely dedicated to it in upcoming posts. For now, I want you to know that I am bullish on the USD/JPY. Japan has been plagued with inflation and slow economic growth for as long as a decade. The USD has been on an upswing so this bodes well for the uphill trajectory of the USD/JPY.
FTSE 100
All this talk about Greece has made most investors shy away from European markets that are pretty distressed right now. But all is not bad across the pond. We have Britain coming out of a nine-month recession and the FTSE 100 surging as a result of news of a good Q3 earnings report. Investors should be cautious, though, as it could be due to mostly to the summer Olympics that were recently held in the United Kingdom.