Hurricane Sandy relief
Yes, there are plenty of goofy jokes—and stupid, erroneous pictures—of Hurricane Sandy going around the Internet, but there are also plenty of people who could use our help. Fortunately it’s not hard to give, and if you have anything to give, remember that every little bit helps. A text message carrying just $10 can go a long way—and you can even pool together with friends if it’s hard to make that amount.
You can text a donation easily by sending it to 90999. Just text the words “RED CROSS” (don’t include the quotation marks) to the number and the $10 donation will be charged to your account.
Just what will the Red Cross do with your donation? Having volunteered with them before, I trust them as one of my favorite humanitarian aid groups, and I can tell you that most of your money will be going to fund direct relief to people, such as food and shelter. Counseling support and other help may also be provided with your donation.
If you want to donate more than $10, feel free to send multiple texts in the increments that you prefer. As far as I know, there are no limitations on the number of texts per person.
The TRUE life of a barn cat
A few weeks ago, people started saying they'd seen a kitten at the barn where I board my horses. I didn't think much of it until about a week later, when I found a kitten in bad shape in a horse's stall. It was mewing frantically as I rounded the corner, and when I spotted it, it was struggling to get up. The horse's hind foot was hardly an inch in front of the kitten's body.
I ran into the stall to rescue the kitten, but soon after I picked it up, it went into a nearly comatose state. It was barely breathing, its eyes were crossed and unresponsive, and the only sign that it was still alive was the feeble protest it sometimes made by opening and closing its mouth when I moved it around. It was pretty clear the poor thing had been stepped on -- and only just before I arrived on the scene, too, if the frantic cries that drew me were any indication.
I rushed the kitten to an emergency vet, but even after an IV and a cocktail of drugs, it wasn't responding -- it was breathing a little more easily, and that was it. After giving it a little time, I reluctantly gave the vet the go-ahead to euthanize the kitten. As much as I wanted it to survive, I wasn't prepared to spend a thousand or more in emergency care for a stray kitten we weren't even sure would make it.
Even though I knew I had done all I could to save the kitten, and even though I knew I'd given it a more comfortable death than suffering on the floor of that horse's stall, it was a difficult decision to make. I cried more than I thought I would, considering the kitten wasn't even mine. But after having gone through that, when a friend texted me the next day to say that there was another kitten, I knew I had to make every effort to catch it before it suffered the same fate.
It took a few days and ultimately a feral cat trap, but we caught the second kitten. Around this time, I also started hearing reports of a third kitten, which hadn't been seen in a while, and a momma cat, which was seldom seen but still around.
The kitten we did catch was scared at first, but very quickly got used to -- and even enjoyed -- being handled. Now, a week and a half later, she happily seeks out attention. She was clearly not a feral kitten -- at eight weeks, her age when we caught her, she would have had a much harder time getting used to people if that was the case.
It is pretty obvious to me that someone dropped off the momma and her kittens at our barn, probably because they didn't want to have to go through the trouble of finding homes. They probably thought the momma cat and her kittens would become barn cats and live happily ever after. I mean, what cat wouldn't love to run around catching mice all day? Paradise for cats, right?
Wrong. Not only do kittens have no idea that they have to stay away from horses' feet, kittens and adult barn cats have to be worried about being dinner for an owl, fox, or coyote (especially at a barn on the edge of an open space park, as mine is). My mom looked it up and reported that the expected life span of a barn cat is only one to three years -- a fraction of what a happy, beloved indoor cat lives.
Being a barn cat can, of course, be a blessing for a feral shelter cat that otherwise will never be adopted. But it's not a life for a cat that has previously had a home and a bowl of food to eat from every day.
This story has a happy ending for at least one of the kittens -- this little one has found a home with me, and will be spayed, fed, and loved for the rest of her life. But one of her siblings has died, and her momma and at least one more sibling are unaccounted for -- likely dead. Only one out of three (or more) survived more than a few weeks! Does that sound like an ideal life to you?
Green Day's tour is canceled, album release pushed up
Green Day fans have officially learned what they probably thought was coming: The band has canceled the rest of their 2012 concerts. Why? Front man Billie Joe Armstrong is still in rehab. And yes, it's disappointing that shows are scrapped, but it's far more important that Armstrong get well. Don't despair -- I am certain Green Day will tour again, I just don't know when.
There is a bit of good news amidst the bad. The final installment of Green Day's big trilogy, Tre!, is coming out earlier than planned. So there's that, right?Sadly, Green Day also canceled a lot of planned shows in January and February of 2013. Obviously at this point it's safe to assume that Billie Joe Armstrong's recovery is going to take a while. As I said before, that's totally fine. Let the man get well, please. We've lost far too many brilliant musicians to substance abuse, and Armstrong's health is certainly worth taking some time off. I'm fine with waiting a while to see one of my favorite bands of all time.
Here's the specifics: All Green Day shows are off, for now. Tre! will be out on December 11, 2012, while Dos! gets a release on November 13, 2012. I don't want to hear anyone griping about all of this, because really, we're just fortunate we've got not one, but three great Green Day albums to enjoy at the moment. Spend the time absorbing all of the new tunes and saving pennies (or quarters, or dollars) for the tour that we know will eventually come.
My misery on the Hudson
The look on my face in the photo above is virtually a dead ringer to one in a photo from when I was fourteen sitting on the top deck of a boat cruising down the Hudson River on the cool evening of October 6th, 1994.
The man taking the photograph was my father (whom I shall dub “Clyde Krebbs”). Below our feet were members of the … well, let’s call them the Hellman and McDermott families for sake of privacy.
It was a night I do not have fond memories of. In fact, they pain me as much emotionally as the foot wound suffered by Lieutenant John Dunbar in Dances with Wolves did him physically; and writing about it for me is as difficult as his pulling a boot on over his wound. Nevertheless, here is the story:
We were in the Empire State for a wedding at West Point; the boat cruise was a party held after the wedding rehearsal, though my family did not take part in that. Instead, we had drove south to Nanuet, New Jersey to get the present mom and Clyde were giving the bride and groom. Soon after we’d hit the road out of the Newburgh, New York, Holiday Inn, Clyde started a fight between him and mom which sizzled and burnt until it sputtered out by the time we’d gotten back to the Holiday Inn we were camped out at, but not before mom swore she was divorcing Clyde, much to the joy of my younger brother and my own shell-shocked astonishment.
But the night’s toll on our souls was not over yet. Hell no. In fact, Clyde was just getting warmed up.
After a feeble attempt at playing the good father when a young couple at the Holiday Inn made light of my wearing shorts on a chilly evening (“Just ignore them,” he said in a wan, almost detached tone that did not make me feel better) he started another fight by exclaiming “Which way do I go?” as he we drove to West Point for the post-rehearsal cruise. Mom let him have it with both barrels because both of the white arrows showed you could get to West Point. Even an idiot, you think, would have gotten that. But he did it out of retaliation over mom’s divorce decree, the swine. “Me, me, always about me,” was the motto of that bully, and God forbid if anyone else in the family had a say in things.
By the time we got on the boat, however, the fighting had ceased, and not even my grandma quietly observing to mom before we boarded that she and Clyde had been arguing brought the truth to the surface. And the matter was moot by the time the lines were cast off and the boat headed south along the majestic Hudson River with the party atmosphere revving up until it was in full swing by the time we reached our turnaround point beneath the majestic Bear Mountain bridge; in fact, it was about this time things turned uproarious below decks with a jolly “Welcome to the family” ceremony for the groom consisting of a stunt right out of a screwball comedy: a pie with whipped cream right in the kisser.
But I wasn’t there, In fact, I was only below decks once where I snatched a piece of cheese and ham (or maybe two; my memory is dim) before promptly fleeing back up top. Being a highly sensitive person, I was in no mood to party after all the vile crap Clyde had been pulling all day, and, truth be told, the news passed furtively from word-to-mouth amongst the younger people aboard about the pie-in-the-face ceremony did not help my mood either.
I realized with alarm that the resultant roars of laughter and other rowdy noises made by the packed humanity below would only drive me bonkers, not warm my heart, thanks to a genetic quirk of super-sharp hearing that, when flooded with loud noises of any type, causes sensory overload to take place. So up on the top deck I huddled with fingers jamming earplugs deep into my ears to drown out the noise from below as the madcap ceremony took place.
I wish I could paint the sounds of joy I heard with a more vivid pen in this memoir experiment, but the memory pains me so bad I cannot see past it because I was up there suffering while all those jokers below were having a good time, damn them! Sure, sure, they are innocent because they did not know, but my resentment remains like an embedded bullet.
Back to that photograph Clyde took of me. He did it right before the pie ceremony. Even the shell-shocked look on my face did not faze him, however. He was just fine from the moment he got out of our Suburban, the skilled (but hopeless) liar that he was. Not even my shell-shocked behavior concerned him, the SOB. What if I embarrassed myself in front of the whole family by suddenly (but justifiably) flipping out in front of one and all over some harmless remark made by somebody who didn’t know me (or did know me, for that matter), or, worse, attacking him in front of one and all? I already was a massive lad even at fourteen, standing 6’4 inches tall in my bare feet with a natural brawn to match. I easily could have kicked him in the ass or nuts but good.
I swear there are times I wish I had done just that in retaliation for Clyde causing my misery on the Hudson.
Pop Culture Happenings: Joss Whedon For Romney and more buzzworthy dumps
San Francisco battles Arizona on Monday night
This Monday, the San Francisco 49ers will meet the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium in Arizona. The two teams are fighting for the division, but are headed in two totally different directions. The 49ers are 5-2 and have been winning with great defense, but a sketchy offense. Arizona has done much of the same, but has had key losses on offense that will make things tough for their continued success. Injuries at quarterback and running back have nearly crippled the team and a loss this week would all but seal their fate.
The 49ers come into the game after a 13-6 victory over the Seahawks last Thursday. They should be a little healthier after the long break and will look to extend their lead in the division by putting more space between them and the 4-3 Cardinals. A loss, however, would tie the two team’s records at 4-3. This would be especially disheartening for the 49ers that just got some space between them and the Seahawks with last weeks win. More confusing would be if both the Seahawks and Cardinals win this week. That would put the division in a 3-way tie.
The Cardinals certainly have an uphill battle to get a win away from home this week though. They will be missing Kevin Kolb again this week and have been rattled with injuries in the backfield as well. Larod Stevens-Howling did fill in well last week, however, gaining more than 100 yards on the ground while finding the end zone. Either way, Monday Night Football will teach us a lot about the NFC West this week.
Amazon: Oatmeal Studios Humorous Christmas Cards and Envelopes, 26-Count (Pack of 2) - $7.94
Are you in the Christmas spirit a little early? Perhaps you can't wait to get some good Christmas deals? Well - Amazon Warehouse has a great deal on Christmas cards - while it lasts you can get these Oatmeal Studios Humorous Christmas Cards and Envelopes, 26-Count (Pack of 2) ((52 total cards)) for only $7.94 with FREE shipping. This is about 15 cents per card and a pretty good deal - especially with free PRIME shipping.
If you are not familiar with Amazon Warehouse (this link sorts all of the merchandise by price low to high > a great bookmark, IMO) it is basically like an online "outlet" of various merchandise Amazon sells, but can not sell "as BRAND NEW", though I have ordered a ton of stuff and it always comes in looking like there was nothing wrong. Occasionally there are deals on grocery items which can be a little dicey - months close expiration dates and everything. There is a trick to seeing the quality of an item (if it can not be found or is visible on the product page). To do this just copy the title of the item in this case "Oatmeal Studios Humorous Christmas Cards and Envelopes, 26-Count (Pack of 2)" into google, find the Amazon link, click "More Buying Choices" and you can see the condition of the item in the warehouse. I do not know why they can not make this information more readily available on the Amazon Warehouse listing but this trick comes in really handy for things like grocery items that are usually there due to an upcoming "expiration date".
There is also this handy guide that will give you information on what the conditions mean:
What do the different conditions mean?
New - If an item is being sold as "new" on Warehouse Deals, this means that the item has never been removed from the packaging but the packaging has superficial damage.Like New - A "like new"" item sold on Warehouse Deals is in perfect condition, but due to the condition of the packaging, it does not meet Amazon.com standards for new product. For customer-returned product, it's possible that the previous customer opened and removed the product from the original packaging. If a returned item comes back in perfect physical condition and through our testing process we determine the working condition is perfect, the item may be deemed "like new." Physical damage to the outer box of a factory-sealed item in our warehouse can also lead to the condition being taken from Amazon.com "new" to Warehouse Deals "like new."
Very Good - If an item has been tested and verified to be in perfect working order but it has cosmetic damage or blemishes, shows slight signs of use, has minor accessories missing, or the packaging has been replaced to better protect the item, we will assign the condition of "very good."
Good - If an item has been tested and verified to be in perfect working order, but the item has large cosmetic damage or blemishes and/or has missing accessories, we will assign the condition of "good." It's possible the packaging has been replaced to better protect the item.
Acceptable - If an item has been tested and verified to be in perfect working order, but the item shows signs of wear including scratches, dents, and other aesthetic problems, we will assign the condition of "acceptable." It's possible the packaging has been replaced to better protect the item, manuals may be missing, and the item may contain third party attachments.
Mike Zunino in 2013?
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=== Game Recap, Dept. ===
Going into last year's June ammy draft, we M's fans were underwhelmed. But if you read this pre-draft discussion of Zunino, you'll have to give SSI denizens their due. Pre-draft they prophesied Jay-Z's and McNamara's comments about the pick; post-draft they echo'ed Jay-Z's and McNamara's comments about the pick. These three things converged:
- Pre-draft SSI crunch
- Mariners' staff P.R. about Zunino
- Post-draft SSI crunch
All of these things lined up neatly. In particular, Gordon's take on Zunino was a carbon-copy of what the GM and the scouting director had to say.
What did they have to say? The same thing that G-Money did: that if you can get a Charles Johnson, and there's nothing else better, that's what you do:
Tom: "He's steady. He doesn't jump out and wow you like other players. What you get at the end of the day is a steady, hard-nosed tough kid who has power and can really catch."
Jack: "He's a nice looking player. He's a tough kid. You think about that position. It's very difficult to fill it as we know and everyone in baseball knows. When you have a kid with the pedigree and leadership skills, as well as the chance to hit the ball out of the ballpark, I thought it was a real nice package."
Looking at the vids, Dr. D warned that the swing was All-Star caliber, notably for the way that Zunino consistently let the ball drive deep into the zone, and then the way he Mike Schmidt'ed down onto the ball to create loft and backspin.
But we all agreed: hey, he can catch, and he'll hit some homers, but .... big chance of his bat being a FAIL.
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=== And Then They Said Play (ZUUM)Ball ===
Zunino went to A- ball, just to get loose, and hit 10 homers in 29 games. With 18 walks. It's fine to wipe out a short league, but this guy was posting a .500 OBP and .700 SLG in the same style that Ryan Braun would, if you sent him to that league now. Put a wooden bat in his hands and the ball seemed to go ... farther.
The M's moved him up to the high minors at AA Jackson. From Day One he pwned 24-year-old pitchers who could throw breaking balls for strikes. In two weeks he hit 3 homers, 4 doubles, slammed a .400 OBP and a .600 SLG. It's fine too, to have a hot couple of weeks. It's weird to put down a synthetic bat, to just "See Ball Hit Ball" and hit the ball hard and far, over the fence.
The M's then put him in the Southern League playoffs. I don't remember his stats, but do remember that he hit several homers more and carried the Generals through the first round into the finals.
The M's put him in the Arizona Fall League. Now he switched to trrrrrrrriples, Capt. Jack. The guy has played in four different pro contexts, since college last summer, and swum around the lake like a freshwater shark all alone at the buffet.
.....................
We all feared, Draft Day, that Zunino's college bat wouldn't translate to wood and to located breaking balls. Just 60 pro games on, all of a sudden that Mike Schmidt swing looks awfully 500-homer'ish.
Everybody, even the most die-hard No Cheering In The Press Box types, is asking "June or April?" for Zuumball. Okay, we ax it.
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All the Young Royals Dudes ... Analysis
The first thing you'll notice about the spreadsheet in the other article is how many green-shaded boxes there are in the "age" column. That means the prospect was young for his level, and the Royals weren't shy about it with these guys.
If you recall, the most coveted status on THE GRID is the "Golden Prodigy." That is, a "Golden Year" accomplished by a prospect who is young for his level. It was so rare, we didn't give it its own column. As we mentioned, only Montero and Chris Snelling ever achieved that status among Mariners and/or Mariners prospects. Guys who do it tend to be guys who make All-Star games and get MVP votes.
How about these Royals guys? Hosmer? Yes. Moustakas? Yes. Myers? Yes. Butler? Four times.
Let's take a look:
Alex Gordon (picture) was placed in age-appropriate AA at 22 after college, and just had a mere "Golden Year." Then he went right to the majors without bothering with AAA. After 90 and 109 OPS+ seasons, he stalled for awhile, dealt with injuries, moved to LF from 3b, went back to the minors ... and ... had another Golden Year.
Once he was back full time in the majors, he turned in 140 and 125 OPS+ seasons.
***
Billy Butler was an 18-year-old in Idaho Falls when he put up a mere .373/.488/.596 line with 35 extra-base hits and 57 walks in just 74 games. And that was one of his worst minor-league seasons per Plausibility Index. He did the "Golden Prodigy" thing again at 19, and again at 21 and again at 22. Too bad for his age-20 season, such a lame .331/.388/.499 that it barely registers.
Four full seasons in the majors starting at 23: 125, 134, 125, 140. The guy can hit.
***
Mike Moustakas hit 22 home runs in the Midwest League at age 19, one less than our man Little Nicky did two years later, and, like Franklin, he had a bit of a dip at age 20. But at age 21, Moose went nuts, crushing 41 doubles and 36 HR for a .630 SLG between AA and AAA. No, Franklin didn't do that.
After 55 more games at AAA at 22, he went to the majors and got an 86 OPS+. Then in 2012, he labored a bit to a 93 OPS+, but he delivered 20 long balls, and seems to be heading in the right direction. Not too different from what Montero did this year.
***
Eric Hosmer was bit slower out of the gate, after only playing three games at age 18, and putting up a nondescript season at 19. But at 20 ... a .571 SLG, 20 HR, huge walks, and a miniscule 11.3% strikeout rate. Do you know how rare it is to generate huge power with such a low K%? Trust me, it's really rare. (Except that Moustakas and Butler have done it, too.) Montero's 2009 (which is also on the spreadsheet) is about the closest thing I've found among Mariners guys.
Then Hosmer went right into the bigs and put up .293/.334/.465 (118 OPS+) at age 21. He had a stall-out year at 22 (82 OPS+), but that's not uncommon.
***
Oh, yeah, Wil Myers is in here, too. Almost forgot. All he did was slug .679 at 18 in rookie ball, but since it was only 96 plate appearances, I don't really count it as a "Golden Year."
He shared the Midwest League at 19 with 19-year-old Franklin, and, though Franklin had more HR, Myers had more overall production, and a much better eye: Golden Year.
After a bit of a stall-out year at 20, Myers came back with 37 homers in 2012, though his K% climbed up a fair amount. The K-rate kept him from a Golden Year, but he still counted as "POI+DEW," which is the next-best thing.
***
Alcides Escobar is not going to show up big-time with the bat on the chart, but the system is set up to identify guys who are likely to succeed as everyday hitters. As a middle infielder, Escobar shows up just fine, snagging "DEW" status with a .298/.353/.409 season at AAA at age 22.
***
Bubba Starling didn't sign until late (he was exercising his leverage at football drills at Nebraska), so his rookie season was age-appropriate (that is, rookie ball at 19), but he quallified as a "Person of Interest," with 10 HR in 53 games. His strikeout rate kept him from lighting up the charts any more than that.
Zuumball in 2013: Props and Slops
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Does Mike Zunino go into March with a chance to hit .423 and to start at catcher on Opening Day? ... in this case Dr. D will shoot for the Derek Jeter oppo-field single, take his base, and let better men round out the discussion. Only have time for a couple of the most fundamental talking points; we'll let better men attack the more sofistikated issues, such as how Zunino's timeline affects Jesus Montero's position.
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=== Skipping the Minors: SLOPS ===
If you look at this record of the 2011 draft -- not the 2012 draft, now, the 2011 draft -- you won't find a single hitter who played in the majors last year. Or at least I couldn't find one.
That's the equivalent of saying that, from Zunino's draft, not one hitter would play in the majors next year even in September -- not one hitter of any type, much less a catcher doing it. We're not saying it's impossible; SSI has little use for dogma. We're triangulating a sense of proportion, and that sense of proportion is that batters usually don't skip the minor leagues. That's essentially what Zunino would be doing, to play in Seattle in April, or even in June.
.........
The three fastest catchers we recall .... Buster Posey, Matt Weiters, Yasmani Grandal. (Somebody check me on this; it's from memory. The dullest pencil is better than the sharpest mind, and ours wasn't real sharp to start with....). All those guys played over a year in the minors, one full year, plus parts of others. Those were the fastest catchers to hit the beach.
There have been a few hitters who more-or-less skipped the minors ... Ryan Braun was super quick. Ryan Zimmerman was quick if we recall correctly. Bryce Harper, wowza. But the operative word is "few."
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=== Talent Over Method: PROPS ===
There is such a thing as "See Ball Hit Ball." There are indeed a few guys whose approach transcends pitch sequences.
Ken Griffey Jr. was a major league player, and a good one, as a teenager. He just sat fastball and adjusted anything else. "You start messing around and looking for this or that, and all of a sudden he's snuck a 37-mile-an-hour fastball by you," the Kid said back in 1989.
Bryce Harper, the same. Harper played extremely well in 2012 and I'll guarantee you that Mike Zunino has more plate experience than Harper had.
Pete Incaviglia skipped the minors, slugged close to .500 right out of college as we recall. You know about John Olerud. There was a guy, Paul Molitor, who was essentially as good the day he was drafted as he'd ever be. Barry Bonds, IIRC, played less than a year of the minors.
Somebody once tried to talk to Yogi Berra about Ted Williams-style "taking pitches away" from the enemy hurler. Yogi went up and struck out three times or something. He growled, "How do you expect a guy to think and hit at the same time?"
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=== Dr's Diagnosis ===
Mike Zunino has indeed grabbed a wooden bat, parachuted into four different leagues (NCAA, NWL, Southern, AFL), and been totally comfortable in the first games. Four times. You look at his swing and at his short stroke and you definitely get the impression that he could be a See Ball Hit Ball kinda guy.
Johnny Bench was totally comfortable hitting in a new league while catching at the same time. Gary Carter, who is Zunino's upside comp now, hit extremely well in the majors at age 21. Carter's EYE, his BB/K ratio, and his defensive catching, were superb from day one in the majors. Zunino may be in the same template.
Every teenager who ever played -- such as Johnny Bench -- is living testimony to the fact that hitters don't have to know what's coming. (Bench was an ML catcher at 19, an All-Star catcher at age 20, the best player in the league at ages 21-22.)
Every young catcher who ever made the All-Star team -- such as Pudge Rodriguez, who was an ROY candidate at 19 and an All-Star at age 20 -- reminds us that not every player is confused by catching and hitting at the same time. Some players are actually helped by playing two ways at the same time.
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=== Slops and Props Bonus Round ===
Jesus Montero hits better when he's squatting behind the plate that day:
Position | G | AVG | OBP | SLG |
C | 56 | .310 | .343 | .498 |
DH | 78 | .226 | .265 | .309 |
This isn't "small sample size" (sic). Watch a game. Some guys hit better when they're sweating, dude. I dunno if most guys hit better as DH. I can assure you that even if most do, Jesus Montero is not one of them.
Montero's catching is a factor that has to be taken into consideration when you're talking about Zuumball. SLOPS to icing the shooter, when you're talking about Jesus Montero.
I'll bet you a dollar that this is why the Mariners are going to use Jesus Montero at first base. From the dugout, they are of course aware that Montero hits better when sweating. (That's a famous Pete Rose line.)
................
Another factor that deserves its own discussion: the question of whether you want to sacrifice Buster Posey's MVP age-29 season to get his fairly-good age-22 season. If Capt Jack did think that Zunino were ready to hit 30 bombs in 2012 ... he'd still Super Two him, wouldn't he? Ready, set, discuss...
SLOPS to the idea of sacrificing club control of a prime year for Zunino. We don't say that's the end of the discussion. It's a cost associated.
..........
If Mike Zunino did turn out to be one of your 25 best players for 2013, that would make him one of "The Natural" types, like Harper, like Junior, like Bench and Pudge and Carter, a guy who's likely headed for the Hall of Fame some day.
Visually, that's what he looks like early on. Physically he looks like The Natural. Delicious problem for Capt. Jack.
Cheers,
Dr D
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