Dustin Ackley Scouting Report, Dec 2012 - Fatal Swing Flaw
.
Mo Dawg sez,
The overhaul on Ackley ['s evaluation this year] is more problematic, perhaps. Or many will see it that way. His down side is that he's a glove first 2B, who will get to 100 OPS+ some seasons. That's a heck of a downside. Upside is that he's a glove first 2B with a first rate bat.
For the record, SSI is still bullish on Dustin Ackley. His swing shape became VERY weird in 2012, had an grotesque contradiction it. Part of it was probably due to his legs hurting, and part of it was certainly due to his frustration in not being able to anticipate the pitches.
.
=== Swing FLAW ===
To give you an idea of what we're talking about, check the hand action in these screen grabs from September 2012. Ackley raises his hands sky-high as the pitcher comes into the release area, then bobs them down, and continues to sink his hands, chopping down at the strike zone from a very high position.
Exercise for you: Contemplate this little aiki puzzle for a moment. Why would a hitter sky his hands as the energy loaded up at him?
.
The problem is a defensive mindset; Ackley is fighting a rearguard action, and is doing it by loading everything toward the goal of making sure the energy doesn't go by him.
The chop-down action leads to his topping the ball, and he had a low flyball rate in August and September - just 32% in August.
Baseball fans have still not grokked the real dynamic behind flyball/groundball rates -- it's not that there are flyball hitters and groundball hitters, as such. It's that some hitters are better at getting their pitch and doing something with it (pulling it hard in the air). Fly balls and ground balls aren't purely random; when the hitter kicks the pitcher's butt, he launches the pitch, and that's a (subset of) fly ball(s).
Ackley in 2012 rarely seemed to load up on a pitch and launch it. Do you think that means he never will?
..................
Now, notice in the 1st and 4th pictures above: Ackley starts with an ugly CG, way too high and stiff when you consider the hands and navel, and the weight transfer? In picture 4, his heart "chakra" is pointed up at the moon. He stands way up, then bobs down, then SCOOOOOPS his weight way up into the air. Ackley's heart and feelings are in the RF seats; his head and conscious thoughts are on the ground up the middle.
You've got the entire body, and the "ki" (the subconscious intentionality) performing an extreme UP-DWN-UP scooping action, while the hands argue with everything else and direct the energy down towards the earth's core.
His body and soul crave a Russell Branyan hit trajectory, while his hands and head insist on an Ichiro hit trajectory. This, gentlemen, will not work. For your hips, abdomen, and core to do one thing, and your arms a contradictory thing, that is a FATAL FLAW regardless of whether it goes into the scouts' books that way.
This is good news for the Mariner fan. Because it's an excuse for underperformance. Dustin Ackley WILL figure that out, WILL wind up getting his body into synch at the plate eventually.
.
=== Other Adjustments ===
Ackley has been accused of being "passive" at the plate, because he takes pitches on the black, which is absolutely 100% the wrong interpretation. John Olerud, for example, made a career out of tipping his cap to the pitcher on those strikes. If you swing, it's an out anyway. Get that straight!
There is nothing passive about Dustin Ackley. He is an EXTREMELY aggressive player AND HITTER. "Aggressive" is not the same thing as "swings a lot." Was Ted Williams aggressive in his hitting?
Still and all, Ackley did swing more at "lefty strikes" late in the season. Let's spell it out: Ackley is still learning ML pitch sequences. Cut him some space.
..............
His ankle was fouled up.
..............
His BABIP on fly balls, for the season, was .0xx something, as Thirteen pointed out. He had a whale of a lot of shots run down by outfielders. Luck is going to be one part of the equation.
...............
It's easy to visualize the day in which Ackley gets his swing shape together, starts anticipating the pitches, has some balls fall in down the RF line and into the LCF gap, has some balls go over the LF wall and BOOM here's your young Johnny Damon-plus, with line-shot doubles falling into every corner of the park.
The problemo is that we may only get three years of it, 2014, 15, 16 and deal him during the 17 season. But SSI isn't doubting Ackley's talent at this point.
His HIT tool is plus-plus, he's a special athlete, can tell a ball from a strike, and I think it's just growing pains.
It was no accident that Ackley was a #2 overall. For SSI, he's one of the "givens" in 2013. He's got too much talent. If it's me, I'm very comfortable investing another full year in Ackley and only then re-assessing. But that re-assessment might be moot in nine months.
BABVA,
Dr D
.
Trying something new
I'd been hearing a lot about Fifty Shades of Grey, and not all of it complementary. I have enough of a rebellious streak in me that when I hear a lot of people complaining about a book, I want to check it out and see what all the fuss is about. So when I heard about how controversial Fifty Shades of Grey was, of course my first instinct was to read it myself.
My first thought was, "It's not that bad." Obviously, it's about sex. A lot of sex. And I can see how some people would find that offensive, but I don't agree that it automatically makes it bad writing.
It's not great writing, though. E.L. James has clearly figured out what bimbos all around the world already knew: If you bring sex into the equation, no one will care whether there is any quality to the content.
That being said, the writing is average. Not great, but not really terrible, either. What E.L. James does do well is to write sexual tension -- and sex itself -- in a way that compels you to keep reading. The S&M that the book is so well known for is actually rather mild -- although it's hinted at that Christian Grey would like to do more, and I wouldn't be surprised if the sex becomes a little darker in the second and third books, what the sex games in the first book are not all that shocking. James also does a good job of building up to them, so that you're not hit in the face with S&M from the get-go.
It's an entertaining book, admittedly, and there is enough mystery about Christian Grey to keep you reading and wondering. I will probably go on to read at least one more of the books, although if they get too weird, I don't know if I'll keep it up. But as always with controversial books, I am not at all sorry to have given it a chance. Rarely in my life have I ever found a book that I wished I hadn't taken the time to read!
Use Pinterest to plan a bridal shower
Pinterest is playing a bigger and bigger role in the lives of DIY-ers. Since it hit the scene, more and more women and businesses have taken notice and built up one heck of a library of amazing ideas, one little pin at a time.
I'm a huge fan of Pinterest for bridal shower planning because other pinners are doing all the hard work and the research, for me. The good news for those planning important parties like bridal showers is that every day, more and more brides-to-be, maids of honor, bridesmaids, mothers-of-the-bride and wedding planners are adding to the collection of awesome ideas. And, the best part is that there are so many different perspectives, I'm sure to find numerous ideas for everything from invitations and games to decorations and menu options all in one place...for free.
Sure, there are countless books for bridal shower planning available, but they can cost a pretty penny and often focus on a certain type of shower, be it elegant or traditional. The beauty of Pinterest is there are no limits and you can spend as much time as you want to looking through other pinners' boards and seeing what really speaks to the taste of the bride you're honoring.
And, if you haven't used Pinterest in a while, I think it's important to point out that they have a new secret board feature. Being able to put together a board that nobody can see but you makes it easier than ever to plan a bridal shower without the bride getting a glimpse of your plans.
So, before you head to the library or bookstore, hop onto Pinterest and grab some ideas for free. You can mix and match to your heart's content without any muss or fuss and the bride will be happily surprised with her party.
Junk food advertising makes kids fat
This Salon.com article is up in arms over the state of junk food advertising aimed directly at children. But all of its conclusions are just as true for junk food aimed at teenagers and adults, too.
Keep the elf off my shelf!
As the Christmas season gets underway, more and more pictures are popping up of the dreaded Elf on the Shelf. I realize the pesky pixie is supposed to be a fun reminder to kids that Santa knows all, but I can't say I'm disappointed the trend wasn't around when I was kid.
I understand that they're supposed to be part of a fun game that parents play with their children, but, frankly, I think they're a bit creepy. I'm naturally paranoid about inanimate objects with eyes anyway (I hate you, mannequins!), but these guys are supposed to be watching you. Welcome to Heebiejeebieville, meet Mayor Elf – he's currently crouched behind my grandparents' 50th anniversary photo.
Now, I'm not saying that I'm above lying to my kids and telling them that Santa's watching, but there's a distinct difference between jolly old St. Nick and the Elf on the Shelf. Santa is a magical, omniscient being whose oddly embraced voyeurism is cloaked in mystery. You can't see his eyes on you; you just know he's watching and you better keep your naughtiness to a minimum.
The Elf on a Shelf is a horse of a different color. Kids know that when they wake up, that curly-toed weirdo is hiding somewhere in their midst, staring at them. Am I the only one that thinks that's freaky? Because seriously, people, I shouldn't be.
What do you think? Has hiding the Elf on the Shelf become a holiday tradition in your house, or are you with me in thinking it's the Christmas version of the Chucky doll?
Clicker training your cat for fun
Yes, fun! Check out this video by a kid named Daniel King who has clicker trained his cats to run agility courses (mostly jumping). Look how much fun he is having, and his kitties are having, and they are all having together!
Exit interviews
Remember how back in grade school you and your best friend would always wear matching BFF bracelets or necklaces? Well, like those matching pieces of jewelry, your friendship with said friend probably did not last forever.
During the younger years, it can be pretty easy to figure out why a friendship comes to an end. However, as we get older, life can get a lot more complicated, and it is not always plain to see why a friendship ceases to last forever.
As adults, many people slowly withdraw from their friends instead of simply declaring that they no longer wish to be friends with someone. This can often leave the friend unsure about what is happening to their relationship with their BFF. Sometimes friendships end because of a misunderstanding between friends.
The misunderstanding can easily be cleared up, but only if both parties are willing to sit down and talk about it. That is something that cannot be done if one of the friends just decide to one day slowly but surely step back away from the friendship without saying even a word of what is on their mind.
The next time that you feel like a friendship is no longer working out, consider openly discussing it with your friend. Tell your friend how you feel and ask questions that pertain to the problems within your friendship. Listen to what your friend has to say without getting all judgmental about it.
Be open and honest as much as possible. You might just be able to save your friendship. But even if the relationship is beyond the point of saving, at least you now know for sure why it ended. This type of exit interview can give you closure, and allow you to learn how to avoid having the same types of problems in your future relationships.
No work for the weary...
This morning I woke up hours before dawn, just so I could have some peace and quiet to get my work done. All I wanted was a little extra time to finish up some major projects so I could have some semblance of a normal, relaxing weekend with my family. You know? Like lots of other people?
So, I'm typing away, cranking out work like a boss, when I hear little feet hitting the hardwood floor above me. CRAP. I actually...for just a moment...wished it was a ghost, monster, burglar, Republican...anything but one of my sons. As I glanced at the clock on the wall, which mockingly read 4:30, I heard little, not so paranormal, steps coming down the stairs. The next thing I know, I have a 5-year-old hanging from my arm whining that he's tired. He's tired? At 4:30 in the morning? Who'd have guessed?
Super bummer. And, by “bummer” I mean "thing that irritates me so severely that I still have an eye twitch eight hours later."
What bothers me the most about these little inconveniences isn't so much that my kids try to make me feel guilty as if I'm slighting them somehow by writing in the middle of the night. The problem is how they have some sort of sickening intuition that I'm doing something selfish, albeit in the best interest of my family. They can sense when I've planned a proactive strategy that will benefit me later, and are especially gifted at thwarting efforts to get ahead somehow.
Do your kids have any uncanny ability to end your plans before they begin?
Sketchy Sketches: How To Kill a Mustache
YouTube magicians Rhett & Link are primarily known for their ability to shape-up local commercials into something magical (see: Chuck Testa). But on this, the last day of Movember, the boys gave us this informational video on how to finally trim that face caterpillar under your nose. RIP mustache.
Don't forget about George Lazenby
While Sean Connery may be considered the most dapper of the Bonds, George Lazenby might be considered the most conceited. This male model turned car dealer learned that Connery feared being typecast and quit the Bond gig after only four movies.
The studies were desperately seeking a new Bond and all the big name actors tried out, but Lazenby, who had no prior acting experience, won out because he looked good landing a punch. His one and only Bond movie “Her Majesty's Secret Service,” did mediocre in the box office, but it was good enough to solidify Lazenby as the next Bond.
What happened next is a typical Hollywood tale. Lazenby became drunk with power and fame, and since it was the '60s, fell in with the hippie crowd. They felt that Bond represented the establishment with his reaction to problems with violence and his objectification of women. When he was ready to start the next movie, Lazenby showed up in a full beard and wanted way more money than before.
Unlucky for Lazenby, Connery had come to his senses and once he heard that Lazenby was on the outs, was more than happy to take up the mantle once again. Lazenby had bit parts here and there, but could never recover after the Bond debacle. Lazenby has come to regret his decision to push too hard and that it pretty much ended his acting career.
Several others have come after Connery as Bond, but none had quite the same flair for the drama as Lazenby.