Morales as a WAR Hero

Submitted by jemanji on 12/20/12 12:08am
Ko K'Mo as mediocrity? AAAaaaarrrgghhhhh

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Q.  Is Kendrys Morales one of the most average players in the major leagues?

A.  He made Fangraphs' top five, and that seems to be the consensus.  Here's an article on the subject.  The obvious implication is that he's a mediocrity.  For example, the article notes Paul Konerko's WAR at 2'ish and sighs, "it's too bad," since Konerko actually looks kinda good at the plate.

As our servant, the WAR statistic is useful.  As our master, it is a deceitful, exploitative tyrant.  As we observed in this article, real GM's consistently pay less for no-hit WAR heroes than fanboys expect, and real GM's consistently pay more for no-WAR hit heroes than fanboys expect.

Even if Kendrys Morales were a 2.0 WAR first baseman, that wouldn't prove, to the flexibly minded, that he was a mediocrity.  Any more than Billy Butler's WAR is the way that GM's judge his value.

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Q.  Is Morales in fact a 2.0 WAR first baseman?

A.  He is not.  

He has averaged 2.88 WAR per 162 games since 2009, when President Obama took office.  Thanks for asking.

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Q.  Is a 2.0 WAR first baseman hard to come by, or no?

A.  We remind you of our NASA analogy.  If there are exactly 20 astronauts in the world, and 30 spaceships needing guys to fly them, what then?

Maybe the 20 astronauts, and 10 plumbers, average an IQ of 140 among them.  You're spaceship #25, frozen out of the astronaut pool.  Does that mean the average 140-IQ pilot doesn't mean much to you?

As compared to Prince Fielder .. Kendrys Morales isn't a big deal.  As compared to Justin Smoak, he kind of is.  Jack Zduriencik just un-froze himself out of the 100-RBI market.

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Q.  Why would the Angels give up such a player?

A.  They didn't expect to get Hamilton; it was Morales, with one year left, or Trumbo or Bourjos, with four years left.

What do the Angels care if the Mariners wield this mighty weapon against them?  The Angels know for a fact that Morales will be gone after one year, one and done, and do you think they sweat the 2013 Mariners?

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Q.  Was Jason Vargas really the best they could do?

A.  For one thing, some of the teams with 2.0-WAR starting pitchers ... DID have astronauts at first base already.  :- )

For another thing, you remember Bill James' rule, that orgs want players who kicked their keisters?  In Vargas' last 11 starts against LA, he's got 62 strikeouts against 14 walks, and a 2+ ERA.  They're literally figuring that's 2 WAR per year right there - they won't be dropping two extra games to Jason Vargas.  HEH!!

Dr. D?  First thing he did, after the fences came in, was write a post about pinball scores at Safeco.  ;- )  Second thing he did was start a petition to get Vargas' keister out of this city.  Judging by Vargas' face on TV that night, he got at least one signature the same day.

Jason Vargas was a good soldier.  But think it through and you'll see that this "addition by subtraction" was a giant leap towards the club they'll win their next pennant with.

"They won't be replacing Vargas with a 2 WAR pitcher in April, so the trade's a wash" ... take two Baseball America subscriptions and call me in the morning.  Or take class on shaping bansai trees.  One way or the other, you'll find yourself blowing the froth off a clue, mate.

............

As a completely tangential issue:  we remind that earlier this winter, Capt Jack gravely threatened to acquire a closer... the implications for one Seattle rotation were ominous....

Will that be one Chris Sale, or two for yer?  Perhaps a Feliz and Ogando both, and field a ROTATION whose velocity exceeds Justin Verlander's?  Fortune favors the bold, Cap'n ...

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Q.  What does Morales do in Seattle, in an UP season?

A.  Oh .... I'll take a wild guess, say he hits .306 with a .569 SLG, hits 34 homers, 108 RBI, finishes #5 in the MVP voting.

His 2009 scatterchart has about 6, 8 doubles right to the fence in left and center, balls that are out in Safeco in 2013.  His bounceback in late 2012 as he got his legs and timing back, a 35-homer pace the last two months, was confidently predicted by a lot of Angels fans in March.

Morales could come in weighing 270, could come in limping on that ankle, and wash out.  He could also give Zduriencik a Russ Branyan season from the word Go, and hit better than in 2009. In a contract season, Capt Jack's got to like his chances.

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Cheers,

Dr D

Roosevelts and Klat at Safeco

Submitted by jemanji on 12/19/12 3:18pm
Meet Cute, Dept.

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We never had gotten around to tellin' yer about the Biz Meet that Rsvlts.com had with Dr. D and the Klat crew.  It was during the last home series with the stRangers, whenever that was. 

The Roosevelts guys, one of whom is sitting with Dave Niehaus in this picture, called up and asked Grant for some help putting together a piece on Safeco Field.  These three New York entrepreneurs had taken a site from 1 hit to over a million hits a month, mostly by running high-def sports photos with titles like "15 High Quality Photos of Blake Griffin Dunking."

We kid.  Steve and John have a pitch-perfect sense and style, and sitting there in a Safeco luxury box schmoozing the Rsvtls power brokers, Dr. D suddenly got it as to how the internet works these days.  They had just inked a deal with Microsoft to feature the new phone on their website.  Onward and upward - those guys are living the Jesse Eisenberg dream.

..................

We showed them around Safeco, discussing the art with them.  They weren't put off by the geekiness of the art discussions.  "Man, Jeff, you should do art video tours!  Seriously!"  They mentored us on social networking, threw a bunch of growth strategies at us for SSI, all of which Dr. D promptly forgot.

At one point, Shannon Drayer joined us in the luxury box; maybe Microsoft had arranged for her to welcome the Roosevelts guys.  She was with us on the "art tour."  

Personal impression of Ms. Drayer, you ask?  She's hyper-professional, quite accessible and pleasant, and very Seattle.  :- )  She was wary of Dr. D for five or ten minutes ... it seemed she knew who I was; I introduced myself as "Jeff" ... but after a few minutes, relaxed.  Dr. D isn't tough to get along with in real life and most definitely, neither is Ms. Drayer.

She invited us all into the ROOT broadcast booth, where we watched Ken Sims and Dan Wilson do half an inning.

You like the view?  This is supposed to be one of the best press boxes in baseball.  I felt an compulsion to change into my Superman uniform.  Sims was as high-gusto off the air as he is on it; Dan Wilson is relaxed, smiling, and casually dominant.

....................

After several years, this was actually my first chance to meet the Klat power brokers.  Heather personally manages 1,000+ outlets; she and Cindy got along famously.  Grant manages one outlet, the important one.  (Kidding!)  And he does some other stuff, none of which matters very much...

Dr. D was braced for anything, but wound up making friends with amigos and amigas who look like they'd not be out of place managing Vogue magazine or something.  No, we're not just saying that.  Grant has an Edgar Martinez-type professional bearing, and bemusedly watched Dr. D bungle the schmoozing.  Heather looked like warmer version of a Nordstrom window -- half you guys would have been trying to figure out how to get her number -- but smoothly put career-mom Mrs. D at ease, offering to help our daughter Jennifer learn the ropes in the blogging bidness.  "Words are my passion!," she smiled.

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Well, that's our flavor text for the day.  Next up:  13 HIGH QUALITY PHOTOS OF BLAKE BEAVAN GOING TO ONE AND TWO.

Cheers,

Dr D

Behind the Curtain

Submitted by jemanji on 12/19/12 2:47pm
Cheap at twice the price, Dept.

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=== Talking Points ===

Dr. D has known Silentpadna on and off the field for close to twenty years, which in Internet terms is what, oh, two geological eras or so?.  

He can assure you that there is no such thing as a homo sapiens with a calmer or more pleasant personality.  When this man takes a megaphone, holds it two inches from your ear, and reams you out, then it is time to take radical action.  Must be time to leak that I almost signed Josh Hamilton.

...............

The great and powerful admins behind the SSI curtain, in relation to whom Dr. D's most-comparable player is the little dog Toto, are hyper-aware of the problems.  We've thankfully rated a new paradigm -- a stand-alone platform dedicated to SSI only -- beginning in 2013, so all possible resources are being brought to bear.

Yes, the programmers woke up one day a few weeks ago and found themselves in the seventh circle of AAA baseball.  Those of you who are developers, realize that this isn't fixed with a wave of the magic wand.  But problems should not continue for much longer.

..............

We need frank and candid feedback as to the SSI user experience.  This applies to the last 10 days, and (as a hopefully separate! issue) applies to the last four years. 

You remember that when our friend Wolfy was helping out at DOV.com, there were issues.  My impression is that, over the past four years, those issues were considerably fewer.  Is this view mistaken?  :- )

..............

The admins, who are a bunch of Silentpadna types personally speaking, are hyper-apologetic over the slowdown of the past week or two.  Why this should be the case isn't clear.  ;- ) If they charged twice as much it would still be pretty cheap.  

............

Dr. D is verrrry loyal to the wizards behind the curtain.  If you knew them, you would be also.  

One minor note in their grand symphony of generosity over the past years:  their bestowal of a satellite site on Spectator.  The wizards think the world of the DOV/MC community.

That said, if there is interest in an additional Dr. D site, half subscription half public, at which would be posted more content volume than is presently streaming, let us know.  This would then function as a supplementary conduit, which as we all know will be necessary when Montero, Paxton and Co. go nuts in 2013 and become Tampa West.

By the way, if you're interested in a bit of non-Mariner Dr. D whimsy, here are a few of his articles written in other genres.  If you're a little light on the shtick lately, maybe that will remind you of why you didn't miss it much.

..............

The MC/DOV/SSI community is, I think, unique in baseball.  I've never found the same fun-loving, frictionless "think tank" environment, saturated by adult idea exchange, populated by such friendly amigos coming from such varied walks of life.  The pleasure is all Dr. D's.

Bring the feedback on, if you please.

Cheers,

Jeff

You should learn a new art form

Submitted by erika on 12/19/12 12:35pm
Push yourself!

If you're thinking about goals for 2013, one of them should definitely be to learn a new art form. Why? SO MANY REASONS.

First of all, learning is good for your brain. It doesn't really matter what you are learning; it makes new neural pathways in your brain, improves your brain's plasticity, and helps you make more connections in other aspects of your thinking. Learning is just plain good for you, which is why it's such a shame that most of us essentially stop learning once we leave school. 
 
Learning a new art form will improve your current art. Let's say that you are a watercolor painter. If you take a ceramics class, or learn woodworking, or glassblowing, you will soon notice an improvement in your watercolors. Learning a new art form gives you a new perspective on your current art. Nothing makes you appreciate your experience in one field like becoming a rank amateur in a new field.
 
Techniques can be surprisingly transferrable. For example, working with ceramics can help improve your fine motor skills, which is certainly a benefit to painters. It also gives you a new outlook on volume and shape, which can bring more life to your watercolors. By contrast, a ceramics artist who takes a painting class might come away with a new appreciation for light/dark contrast and color theory.
 
You might really enjoy it! What if our hypothetical watercolor artist discovers that inside her is a ceramics artist who has been yearning for freedom her entire life.  Whatever age you are, it's never too late to discover a new passion. Maybe oil painting or weaving or metalworking is your true calling - but you will never know unless you give it a try.
 
It will broaden your understanding of the arts. When you learn about ceramics (for example), you also learn about the history of ceramics. You learn about the popular styles, historical glazes, and various cultural aesthetics. Each art form has its own huge volume of art history. The more you know about one, the more you know about all.
 
It will humble you. We all love to be the big fish in the small pond. If you have been painting for 20 years, it's easy to get complacent. And when you get complacent, your art suffers. There's no better way to knock yourself out of that rut than to try something new, and have that experience of being a newbie all over again.
 

What are your knitting goals for 2013?

Submitted by erika on 12/19/12 12:19pm
Making plans for the year to come.

I think it's natural to get reflective at the end of each year. I like to dedicate December to thinking about what I have accomplished in the past year, and what I would like to accomplish in the next. 

Knitting wise, 2012 was "The Year of Mindless Knitting" for me. It was an emotionally challenging year, and when I'm having a difficult time emotionally, I always fall back on simple knitting. At the end of a really tough day, I just don't have it in me to follow a chart or do a bunch of math. Thus, this year I think I cranked out more garter stitch than every other year in my knitting career combined. I made a whole entire afghan out of garter stitch, plus several full-length scarves. 
 
In past years, I have pushed myself to learn new knitting techniques, design patterns, or try new items (like socks or lace work) to improve my skills. But skills wise, this was the year of resting on my laurels. I barely learned anything this year when it comes to knitting. I did pick up several cool new cast on and cast off techniques, though, so the year was not a total loss.
 
One goal I did reach was to learn spinning. I have been wanting to learn how to spin for years, and I decided early on that 2012 would be the year. I took a two-hour class on the drop spindle in January, and by March I had produced a fairly decent skein of two-ply yarn with the drop spindle.
 
I didn't make the jump to buying a wheel and going full-out, though. It turns out that I just don't enjoy spinning yarn the way some people do. But you know what? That's okay. I tried it, I have the skill, and I'm not out a lot of money. I am of the opinion that your time and effort is never wasted when you're learning something, so I'm happy with the experiment overall.
 
Another target I hit was stash management. I'm exiting 2012 with only about 12,000 yards of yarn. Which is a real accomplishment, given that I started the year with 27,000 yards! A lot of the stash reduction was donating unwanted yarn to various knitting charity groups. But once again, it totally qualifies. And I love having all that storage space freed up.
 
Looking forward to 2013, I would like to end the year with only 5,000 yards of yarn. It's an ambitious goal, but I think I can do it!

What are your art goals for 2013?

Submitted by erika on 12/19/12 12:02pm
I hate the term "resolutions!"

As we come to the end of the year, I always like to take December to assess how far I came in the year that passed, and draft a road map for the year ahead. 

In the artistic aspect of my life, 2012 was incredible. I have been a casual sketcher my whole life, but this was the year that I was inspired to get serious with it. Looking back, the path was obvious, but it didn't seem so at the time. 
 
It started when I attended Emerald City Comicon for the first time in several years. I was blown away by all the talent and energy, and inspired to do something, although I didn't know what. About a month later I got an iPad and started playing Draw Something. 
 
After playing the game for a few weeks, I realized that I was WAY more into the drawing than the playing. I downloaded the free Sketchbook Lite app, which led to finally starting the webcomic I had always talked about doing. I'm finishing up the year with a thriving business in merchandise made from my own artwork, and I'm close to being able to offer prints of my original artwork for sale.
 
You don't always know when you're going when you take that first step. But if you keep following the path, and have faith that you're headed in the right direction, and you keep pushing yourself to work harder and do better, it is truly amazing what you can accomplish in a few short months.
 
One of my goals for 2013 is to take some baby steps in painting with oils or acrylics. I have never gone beyond giving my pen and ink illustrations a watercolor wash, in all my years as an amateur artist. Why? Because I felt that oil and acrylic paints were "too expensive" and something that "real artists" used. Subtext: "I'm not worthy." 
 
And you know what? That is a dumb thing to think. Really just idiotic. I feel like it's time I finally threw that kind of self-defeating talk out the window and at least give "real painting" a try. Maybe I'll hate it; that's fine. I want to at least be able to say that I tried.
 
When you think about where you want to be at the end of 2013, ask yourself what's holding you back. Why aren't you at that spot now? Make 2013 your year of removing roadblocks!

Limbaugh's "don't politicize the tragedy" double standard

Submitted by erika on 12/19/12 10:15am
Is anyone surprised?

On Friday, Rush Limbaugh asked liberals not to politicize the tragedy of the shooting at Sandy Hook. Sanctimoniously, with his eyes turned up to God, Limbaugh proclaimed that "Left Mobilizes to Politicize School Shooting." 

"As we sit here at this very moment," as the initial news was still hitting, Limbaugh said that "there are liberals trying to find a way to blame this on conservatives and Republicans." Oh those nasty liberals! Have they no shame? Is there no limit to what they will twist to further their own agenda? Is there no tragedy so great that they will refuse to stand on it to declaim their message to the masses?
 
Then, predictably, just three days later Rush Limbaugh politicized the tragedy of the shooting at Sandy Hook. 72 hours after shaking his fingers at liberals who Limbaugh imagined would "turn it into an event to advance their agenda," here Rush is, doing THAT VERY THING.
 
Liberals have used the Sandy Hook incident to promote the idea of gun control because they believe that is how to stop it from happening again. But if you ask me, what Limbaugh has done is even worse. He is using the Sandy Hook incident to frighten people with the specter of what a dystopic future we are living in, now that the liberals are in charge.
 
Limbaugh doesn't have a clear path to solving this problem. He mutters empty phrases like "social guardrails" and then goes off the guardrails himself, talking about how the Fast and Furious debacle was a conspiracy cooked up by the federal government "to create throughout this country the exact emotions and energy that the story, the shootings at the Sandy Hook Elementary School created." 
 
Limbaugh also describes Gawker as "a militant homosexual site, entertainment. Not militant. It's a gay site." Which… what? That Rush Limbaugh describes Gawker as "a militant homosexual site" says a lot more about Rush Limbaugh than he probably intended. 
 
Gawker is a gossip website. Nothing more, nothing less. But by hitting that panic button in his conservative religious audience, Rush is just adding to his tapestry of fear and hate and divisiveness. Instead of using Sandy Hook as an opportunity to mend fences and work together as a nation, Limbaugh has decided to hold it up as an example of the terrible future he's been talking about all along.
 
Way to go, Rush. You truly are a terrible human being.

Knitting trends: Giant knits

Submitted by erika on 12/19/12 10:07am
Fashionable, and quick to knit.

If you still have some Christmas gifts to knit, then you are in luck! One of the biggest trends I saw this year was big huge chunky knits. The Gap seems to be the biggest proponent of this fashion trend, although Anthropologie had some notable giant scarves and cowls as well, if memory serves. We're talking about 1, maybe 2 stitches to the inch, tops.

Most of these giant knits were either scarves or cowls. And most of the fashionable ones come in a variety of shades from "ivory" to "taupe." Any color that could be interpreted as a pale shade of gray will do well. I don't know why this was the "it" color for oversized knits, but it works well.
 
From a design perspective, the lighter color makes each stitch really pop, since you can really see the shading and highlights. It also does great things when paired with a minimally textured stitch, like moss or seed stitch. 
 
Garter stitch looks pretty great in this light, too. But use caution when considering garter stitch. Because this stitch has a tendency to pull up and use more yarn, it can make a bulky knit even bulkier and heavier.
 
Cables work well at this massive gauge. But you want to keep them simple: a four-stitch cross (hold 2 stitches to the front, knit 2, knit 2 from cable needle) is great. If you start trying to use complicated cables, or cables that twist a lot of yarn over itself, it can cause problems with the kind of yarn that you find at this gauge.
 
In order to get the right look, you will need to buy a super bulky yarn. (Don't try to get gauge by holding multiple strands of yarn together. You may be able to hit the right gauge, but it won't look the same. You need the minimalism of a single strand of fat yarn to get the right look.) 
 
One of the earliest entrants in this category, and still one of the best, is Jen Geigley's "GAP-Tastic Cowl," which is available as a free Ravelry download. A cowl this size will only take a few hours to knit up in a yarn like Lion Brand Wool-Ease Chunky, Lion Brand Wool-Ease Thick 'N Quick, Malabrigo Yarn Chunky, Plymouth Yarn Baby Alpaca Chunky, Brown Sheep Lamb's Pride Bulky, or any other super bulky yarn.
 
Needless to say, aside from being fashionable, warm, cuddly and awesome all around, a super bulky knit is also something you can easily whip out between now and Christmas!
 

Don't be a grammar bully

Submitted by erika on 12/19/12 10:03am
Recognize that good grammar is a privilege that not everyone is lucky enough to have.

As someone who reads a lot, and who has (if I may be so bold) a better-than-average grasp on the laws of grammar, I can't help but twitch when I see people doing it wrong. Forget rules about dangling participles and split infinitives; most people on the internet seem unable to use the right your/you're or its/it's correctly. 

But we all know that most tiresome of internet spectacles, the grammar bully. They delight in swooping in to "fix" someone's post. They mock the use of the "grocer's apostrophe." And although they find themselves hilarious, no one else is laughing.
 
First of all, it's plainly obvious that when you correct someone else's grammar, all you're trying to do is score points for yourself. And you're not trying to score points by being helpful or even entertaining. You're trying to score points by showing off how smart you are. No one wants to see that, trust me.
 
Second of all, although most people use the term "Grammar Nazi," I very specifically prefer to use the phrase "grammar bully." Because this sort of thing IS bullying. It may feel good, like the final act of a Revenge of the Nerds movie. But bullying the bulliers is no way to live. It just repeats the cycle of bullying.
 
And it makes you look like an insufferable jerk, to boot. I would rather hang out with a group of homophobic racist 14 year-old XBOX Live players than spend time with someone who corrects people's grammar. That is how bad it is.
 
And finally, grammar bullies are acting from a perspective of unacknowledged privilege, as blogger Chandra details in this recent blog post. She walks the reader through her experience as a "recovering grammar snob." 
 
What transformed Chandra from someone who endlessly pointed out other people's grammatical errors to someone who shrugs it off? Four years spent helping "disadvantaged adults acquire fundamental literacy skills."
 
Chandra learned that having an excellent grasp of grammar and literacy skills is a privilege. It means that you went to a somewhat decent school. That you weren't forced to drop out at an early age to get a job to help support your family. That you were able to study in the evenings, instead of going hungry or suffering abuse. 
 
There are a lot of reasons why someone doesn't learn and use basic literacy skills. And none of them are the kind of thing that deserve getting picked on. Not to mention, it's basically the equivalent of a rich kid making fun of someone's beat-up used car. 
 
It's time for grammar nerds to stop being insufferable, and start understanding that everyone has their own challenges to face in life. In other words: get over yourself.

Baseball America and Fangraphs Prospect Rankings

Submitted by Spectator on 12/19/12 9:45am
The Original Jackson 5ive still makes up the bulk of the lists, but Mr. Zuumball is now at the top

Baseball America
 

  1. Mike Zunino
  2. Taijuan Walker
  3. Danny Hultzen
  4. James Paxton
  5. Nick Franklin
  6. Brandon Maurer
  7. Carter Capps
  8. Stefen Romero
  9. Brad Miller
  10. Victor Sanchez


Fangraphs

  1. Mike Zunino
  2. Taijuan Walker
  3. Danny Hultzen
  4. Nick Franklin
  5. James Paxton
  6. Carter Capps
  7. Brandon Maurer
  8. Brad Miller
  9. Stefen Romero
  10. Victor Sanchez
  11. Patrick Kivlehan
  12. Gabriel Guerrero
  13. Tyler Pike
  14. Stephen Pryor
  15. Timothy Lopes


My commentary:

  • That was fast.  I thought I might be ahead of the curve in placing Zunino at No. 1.  So much for the element of surprise.  That’s OK, though.  When a guy comes right out of college and instantly shows leadership, power and plate skills, what can you do?  Of course, moderately wobbly years from The Big 3 make it easier to put Mr. Zuumball at the top of the list.
  • Brandon Maurer was not one of the Original Jackson 5ive (which was Walker, Hultzen, Paxton, Pryor and Capps), but looking at these lists, it appears that, retroactively, we’d have to make it the “Jackson 6ix,” which, obviously, has no zip to it at all.  I’m not down on Maurer (except in relative terms), but I don’t have him up that high.
  • (As we’ve noted here, the actual sixth member of the Jackson 5ive was Randy Jackson … but not that Randy Jackson.  No offense to either Randy, or Maurer, but we’re sticking with our Original 5ive.)
  • Paxton “has a ceiling close to that of Hultzen …” (Fangraphs).  True, it may be “close” but that doesn’t rule out the likelihood that it’s higher (which it is).
  • On the other hand, it’s good to see Fangraphs offer some affirmation of my high regard for three of the Teen Titans: Gaby, Nephew of Vlad, Pike and Lopes.
  • Memo to readers: Don’t fear the stall-out year (when the circumstances are right).  In other words: Vintage Vinnie can still make these guys look wrong.
  • Kivlehan at No. 11?  That’s just showin’ off (I think).  (I’d be happy to be proven wrong.)
  • Not yet on The Morbanwagon?  That’s all right.  Plenty of good seats still available.  It's always cooler to be an early-adopter.

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