Was Mo Farah’s Olympic double the best in history?
Since the 5,000m and 10,000m races have become part of the Summer Olympics, only seven people in history have won both at the same games. This past summer, Mo Farah of Britain became the 7th, winning both titles on his home soil, in front of the London crowd. Though no slouch before the Olympics, these games allowed Mo Farah to call himself the fastest man on the planet for the time being. With that being said, though, was his double gold victory better than that of his predecessors?
According to Alberto Salazar, Farah’s couch and former NYC marathon champ, Farah’s double should be regarded as the most important double in the history of the sport. Though Lasse Viren of Finland is the only person to do it at two separate Olympic games (and for distance running fans, beat Prefontaine in the midst of the feat) and Kenesia Bekele is regarded as the GOAT (greatest of all time) Salazar stands by his statement.
While talking with the associated press, Salazar stated, “ [Farah] did it against better competition than ever before. I know Lasse Viren did it twice. But distance running now is more competitive by far than it ever has been.” Salazar goes on to state how the influx of East African runners has progressed the sport immensely in the past few years. Mo Farah himself is of East African decent.
With Farah’s double, he finds himself in the company of Kenisia Bekele and Miruts Yifter of Eithiopia, Lasse Viren of Finland, Vladimir Kuts of the Soviet Union, Emil Zatopek of Czechoslovakia, and the first double champ, Hannes Kolemainen of Finland. Though he is the most recent winner, and did face a stacked field with WR holder Bekele in the 10k, Farah didn’t run an Olympic or World Record. In fact, his Olympic time wasn’t all that impressive. One could also argue that he faced a less than 100 percent Bekele, and the rest of the field was somewhat watered down.
Regardless of whether or not his Olympic double was the best of all time, Mo Farah is the fastest man on the planet as of now. He is the UK record holder in the 5k and 10k, boasts sub-27 and sub-13 PRs, and has a definite target on his back for the upcoming track season. Though no season opener has been announced, you can expect for Farah to be ready to defend his title right from the gun.
Reading Pile: 12/21/12
Grandville Bete Noire HC- If you enjoyed the first two volumes of the series then you'll love this piece, and if you haven’t read the first two volumes then what’s wrong with you? Bryan Talbot is one of the most overlooked talents in the industry and he’s a master storyteller who has created an alternate history sci-fi steampunk Victorian murder mystery political thriller story and makes it look easy to boot. What’s more is that it’s an incredibly nicely bound package with a dense story for a reasonable price of $19.99. Seriously, go buy the series right now. A
Evil Ernie #3- If you had told me before reading this series that I would miss the old Evil Ernie of ten years past, I would have slapped you upside the head and called you a dirty liar. Alas, this current series makes the original Chaos Evil Ernie material seem Shakespearian in comparison. There was something about the fact that the old Ernie books seemed so desensitized to their own murderous themes that they were almost charming, or at the very least they had a distinct character and tone. This crap though. Man. The things I read to review for you people. Honestly, I can’t figure out what’s worse between the art, the script, the plot, or the characterization. Everything makes me reminisce about the previous publications in such a way that the old ones almost seem great. DO YOU COMPREHEND WHAT IS INHERENTLY WRONG WITH THAT? It’s like if a new artist popped up and their artwork actually made me pine for Rob Liefeld. It’s like if a new writer showed up years in the future and I suddenly had a yearning for the good old days of Mark Millar and Frank Miller’s Holy Terror, BECAUSE THEY WERE THE BETTER ALTERNATIVE. To add insult to injury they want $3.99 for this piece of crap, plus we are still at the multiple variant stage that’s standard for Dynamite. I really can’t wait for Dynamite to go out of business. D
Thunderbolts #2- I’m sorry, I nodded off halfway through the book. It’s just the wrong creative team and the wrong tone for all these characters. At least it’s just $2.99 in comparison to other Marvel books, but I don’t think being slightly less expensive is a good enough quality to draw a readership. C
Saga #8- While this is still amazing, two pages longer than Thunderbolts (and most Marvel/DC comics), offers a denser story with better pacing, and probably one of the best things being published today. Seriously, skip an Xbook, an Avengers book, or a Batbook and support this title. A
Jeremy Bonderman Scouting Report - Stuff
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Bonderman's a two-pitch guy, and as you know, Dr. D is partial to these amigos. As a general rule, they can execute their pitches more consistently than average, and also they can get a very fine feel for when to whipsaw a batter with the "wrong" pitch. And they can get a feel for just how much of the plate is viable, at any given time.
Lots of two-pitch starters dominate, and dominate consistently. Randy Johnson, of course. Curt Schilling. The young CC Sabathia, and Clayton Kershaw, and any number of high-octane lefties. Michael Pineda provided Seattle bloggers an object lesson in the fact that a right hand pitcher does not need three pitches to embarrass lefty batters.
In recent years Josh Beckett, AJ Burnett, Gio Gonzalez, the young David Price, the young Johnny Cueto, and many Opening Day starters have used two pitches to chomp innings and mulch batters. It's all about execution.
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Dr. D's fondness for the template aside, there are pitchers who are poster boys for the old-timey "that's why you need three pitches" boys. Jeremy Bonderman is one of these. He has parlayed one excellent pitch, and one good one, into a massively disappointing career.
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=== Fastball ===
When Bondo left the game in 2010, he had an 88-91 fastball that showed a really unusual armside swerve. He's always had this tight spin and this hilarious run on the ball.
The first pitch on this video will give you a feel for it. The ball acts almost like Iwakuma-san's shuuto; even if the batter could get the barrel to it, he wouldn't do anything with it.
Back when Bonderman could throw 92-96, it was a ferocious weapon. Later, when he was down to Aaron Sele velocity, the fastball was still very serviceable.
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=== "Slider" ===
JB's slider is flat out fun to watch. (I don't know why they call it a slider; we used to use that term for 82-85 MPH hard curves that tilted on two planes.) He gets world-class arm action on it, it pops a parachute and draws garbage swings by the dumpful.
This video will get the point across. The arm action is comparable to Trevor Hoffman's changeup ... hey, already, are you thinking what I'm thinking? ... Naaahhhhh....
Bondo's slider checks out statistically too. Despite the fact that he uses it a ton, and despite the fact that his meek little fastball doesn't have his slider's back, the slider generates excellent results.
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=== Mystery Meet, Dept. ===
So, huh.
You've got a guy who by all rights should be Aaron Sele, plus a good bit -- even in 2009-10 after JB had lost the fastball. (Sele was down to 85-87 MPH in his later years, and his fastball didn't bite like that.)
And yet, the guy's ERA was poor, his whole life; his career ERA was 4.89 and he was generally regarded a #2 starting pitcher. ... and in 2009-10 his ERA's were 8.71 and 5.53.
What gives?
NEXT
Jeremy Bonderman: the mystery of his ERA and his FIP
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=== Riddle Me This, Bat-Ter ===
If you just joined us, Bonderman is one of the game's great mysteries. His career xFIP is 4.03, because his career norms of 7.1 strikeouts, 3.1 walks, 1.1 homers, and 47% grounder rate --- > suggest a very good starter.
For example, Ricky Romero's component stats for 2010-12 are very similar to Bonderman's, lifetime. Derek Holland and Matt Harrison are loosely comparable to Bonderman, from a Three True Outcomes standpoint. Jeff Neimann, 2010-12, is a carbon copy for Bonderman.
Yet here sits Bonderman with a career ERA of 4.89. How in the world do you post an actual ERA that is over 20% higher than it should be - over the course of 1,200 innings? Many theories have been tested.
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=== Here, Snipey Snipey ===
Could it be that Bonderman gives up big innings? ... no, motownsports.com studied this carefully, and Bonderman does not give up crooked numbers more often than expected.
Could it be that he has a poor windup from the stretch, and/or pitches badly with men on base? No, that certainly isn't it: Jeremy Bonderman has a sweet compact delivery that translates to the stretch better than average. In fact, his career SLG allowed with RISP is actually lower than his SLG allowed with nobody on base -- I doubt you'd see that very often.
Could it be that he has gopheritis, and the homers are "bunching" the bases into runs scored? No, he doesn't have gopheritis; 1.1 is league average.
Maybe his "luck stats" -- strand rate, BABIP, and HR/fly ball -- are going against him? Not a lot to see here ... his HR-per-fly rate is 11.7% , only a few tenths above average, and a lot of that is because of his lost 2009-10 seasons. His strand rate is 67.3% life, instead of 70%, so maybe his bullpens have let him down a tad. His BABIP is .306, perfectly normal.
Dr. D pulls his last handful of hair out of his head...
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=== Round Up the Un-Usual Suspect ===
Some pitchers have low BABIP's, because batters don't get good swings off them. Usually these guys have terrific change-speed games. Jamie Moyer, with a 27% hit rate, was the poster boy. The young Zito.
Jeremy Bonderman is the inverse of this. Batters seem to anticipate his velocity unusually often -- not way more often, but in baseball I've heard that percentages matter. A baseball who guesses the velocity, he sets the back leg, loads up a bit more, and launches whistling RBI's through the defense.
Mike Marshall always said, "it's not when the batter guesses location. It's when he guesses velocity." With two pitches, you cannot afford to let the batter rule one pitch out!
Only about two degrees off subject ... there was a discussion on Tango, some years back, in which Bonderman was blamed for throwing fastballs on 3-1 .... Every. Single. Pitch. ....mmmmmmmSound familiar anybody? And, sure enough, the Tigers message boards are peppered with complaints about Bonderman being stubborn, pigheaded, refusing to have an idea out there...
Review some tape, check the rest of the data, and there y'go Amig-O. Brandon League. Complete with the wipeout offspeed pitch that he's in love with. Jeremy Bonderman is Brandon League minus 5 MPH.
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Here's a funny inversion for you. You know how Blake Beavan can get to 1-and-2 practically at will -- but has no putaway pitch whatsoever? Jeremy Bonderman is the photo-negative of that. Get Bonderman to two strikes, and you've got one of the best pitchers in the game. It's scuffling out of a 1-0, 2-0, 3-1 count that is the issue...
Allow Beavan and Bonderman to stand out there playing "best ball," and you'd have yourself a regular Hisashi Iwakuma then.
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=== New Stat Proposal ===
Sabermigos run screaming into the night at the suggestion that ERA could tell you more about a pitcher than could xFIP. But settle down, settle down. We've got one tweak to your formula and presto, you've got The Unified Theory of Everything.
xFIP + Pitchability = ERA.
Bonderman seems to test the outer boundaries of pitchability penalties, and it has cost him about a run per nine innings.
We're kidding a bit, because the K/BB/HR stats are of course themselves driven in part by pitchability. You get a swing and miss (low xFIP) because you select the pitch for the occasion. But you also yield a normal fly ball, or a line shot down the 1B line with men on base (high ERA), because you threw another flippin' fastball on 3-and-1.
In any sport, man. I got no use for athletes who refuse to THINK out there.
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Leaving us ... where?
NEXT
Jeremy Bonderman: Whitherto?
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Q. How likely, do you suppose, is Bonderman to be throwing the ball well in March?
A. I'd be very surprised if he weren't.
There's nothing wrong with bringing in a Kevin Millwood, see what he's got in the tank - if he's been garaged the last year or two, he's just as liable to come back with some octane in the tank.
Note carefully that Capt. Jack is tabbing old workhorses who have been in dry dock for a while. Other GM's might think "rusty," or might have simply lost interest. Capt Jack seems to be thinking, "whey-protein recovery drink," and you might apply this to Hisashi Iwakuma to some extent. Who knows - maybe Iwakuma's half-season off in Seattle was key?
SSI is blinkin' lovin' it. Maybe every spring you ought to bring in one ex-star who has had two years off.
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Q. If he is throwing good .. what do you do about the pitchability issue?
A. The Tigers assuredly would have showed Bonderman the pitch charts, just as SSI (and the Mariners) showed League his pitch charts. League finally wound up relenting a little bit, just because the static got so loud.
The Mariners are certainly in a position to speak such that Bonderman heareth. He heareth, or he maketh not the ball club. Thus Bonderman faceth a situation unlike any he hath beheld in the past.
Maybe Jeremy Bonderman will change his pitch mix from 70-30 to 60-40, like Madison Bumgarner and Ervin Santana use. More to the point, maybe he'll learn to pitch backwards - to throw sliders on 2-0 counts and on the first pitch.
Could be his mindset is changed. Two years is a long time. Maybe instead of being burned out and going through the motions, maybe this time he'll be hungry and alert.
Objection, counselor!. But it's John Jaso and Jesus Montero who are going to keep their thumbs on Bonderman's earside pressure point? ... I guess Wedge could.
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Q. Supposing that Bonderman doesn't want to stop grooving fastballs when behind in the count?
A. Bonderman's slider is a legit wipeout pitch. In the 'pen you would figure him to be an enhanced version of Shawn Kelley, even the vunderbar 2009-10 version of Kelley.
You'll remember Kerry Wood missing, in essence, two years, and then reincarnating as a short man. He got his stuff back, plus some. Rest plus relaxation, bullpen relaxation, as in.
Perhaps Bonderman gets to spring training, has some pop in his step, racks up some 1-IP 2-K innings early on. Drop into the bullpen Scrabble tile bag, shake the bullpen vigorously, and pull you out another tile to put on your rotation rack.
Easy to say from where we sit. But, hey, Capt Jack threatened to bring in Joel Hanrahan, so who's to say?
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Dealing with culture shock
It can be something as small as opening the stocked refrigerator door or seeing western news for the first time in long while. It can also be something as big as remembering the horrors of gun culture in your own country. The fact is, whether you have been traveling for two weeks or two years, culture shock is something all wanders will experience at sometime. It may takes days or weeks to set in, but at some point, you are going to feel the effects of coming home.
For myself, my culture shock, after spending six months in Southeast Asia, sparked about a week after I got home. Maybe it was the result of jet lag finally subsiding, or the initial intoxication of seeing friends and family beginning to wear, but I remember vividly the way I felt drinking water straight from the tap.
I was almost tearing up at knowing a seemingly endless supply of potable liquid would spill out if I left the spout open, while others around the world didn’t have even the slightest bit to drink. This strange feeling of guilt, mixed with longing and confusion, peppered with a small sense of isolation, took over my being. It weighed on me for days, but having been privileged to go abroad before, I was able to “handle,” it after a short time.
The problem with culture shock is that it isn’t something that’s easy to deal with. Those returning from travel experienced something that few others will know, and their reactions to what they’ve seen, compared to what they know at home, is completely individual as well. Culture shock can lead to depression, isolation and a general feeling of confusion or loss. But like any ailment, there are ways to help counter the effects.
One of the best ways to cope with culture shock is being able to articulate what you are feeling with someone else who has gone abroad. Even if you have traveled to different destinations, being able to dissect what aspects of your home are conflicting with that of pervious travels can alleviate a lot of the isolation and confusion. Along with talking about it, being able to keep in touch with those you met while traveling, or keep up with local news, are ways to help yourself still feel connected to the culture while being far away.
Though there is no real definition of culture shock, those who have been abroad will all agree that it is a very real post-travel condition. But, much like finding sand in your bag weeks after visiting the beach, culture shock is a hard-to-swallow reminder that you have lived, learned and grown through your travel.
Battling through the winter cold
Old man winter must not be a fan of distance running. For some reason, he likes to coat our favorite trails in ice or snow, drop the thermostat to an unreasonably cold temperature and steal the sun for most of the hours of the day. Though he is a crotchety old man, he still can’t kill the spirit (or unhealthy addiction) of those who love to run. Below you’ll find some tips on how to best keep in shape, and continue training, through the dark days of winter.
Bundle up: As simple as this may seem, making sure you wear layers and the right layers, isn’t always the easiest thing to do. Cotton and baggy clothes allow excess water, be it sweat or the elements, to stay in contact with your body, freezing your muscles and easily bringing on a cold. Though running is a fairly cheap sport, it is worth it to invest in tight fitting, all-weather sporting clothes. Tights, Under Armor, waterproof gloves and windproof shirts or jackets are a necessity for those in places that get cold. Earmuffs or hats couldn’t hurt either. Remember, it’s easier to cool yourself down than it is to warm up, so make sure to wear layers that can easily be shed during the run.
Join a gym with an indoor track: Yes I know, the thought of running anything over a few miles on an indoor track, usually less than 200 meters, is awful. Sometimes, though, you have to do what you have to do. By joining a gym with an indoor track, runners have the opportunity to alternate between track and treadmill. Though neither are desirable options, splitting your run between the two can offer a bit of sanity.
Scout parks that plow regularly: Snow and ice are the ultimate enemies of runners during the winter, so finding an ally to combat them is essential. Most municipalities will offer a few parks that plow their paths, giving runners a safe place to train. Find the parks that offer the most paved areas, with the best plow team.
Run during the afternoon hours: Winter isn’t always fun, and in most places, definitely isn’t warm. Why make it worse by training when the sun is down? The warmest hours of the day come in the afternoon, and those few degrees can do wonders when it’s cold. Work your schedule around the warm weather to make winter training more manageable.
Enjoy your winter training and stay strong! Spring is just around the corner.
Lineup Legitimizers
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=== Chicks Dig the Long Ball, Dept. ===
I/O: Mojo sez in this comment, that Zduriencik likes the "balance for the offense" that will be coming through the Kendrys Morales pay station. He points out 28 one-run losses in 2012, a potential influence on Jesus Montero, and the third-order impact of having dangerous (HR-hitting) hitters.
CRUNCH: Without a doubt, the first thing the Mariners need is GOOD hitters. Of any kind. Nick Swisher would help. Barry Bonds, even today, would help. Mike Hargrove 1972 would help. We all get that. A 6-run-per-27-outs hitter is what he is.
That said, sabermetrics has a huge blind spot, and that is the issue of "What CAUSES a team's players to have good seasons by their own standards?" None of us can use math to solve that question -- and yet it's a question that Jack Zduriencik has to address. Helping a ballplayer hit well is important, and we sabermigos are of zero use in that realm.
Zduriencik and Wedge appropriately and necessarily use their judgment, their intuition, to address this. Wedge hit the young Justin Smoak sixth and he did great for a while; he moved him to third and the spiral down started. Wedge's experience with batting-order slots doesn't give baseball fans as much as we'd like, analytically speaking, but it's all we've got.
When it comes to the question of, "What's the best way to help Ackley and Montero jell?", experience and judgment are the best tools available.
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How many Jack Zdurienciks, Pat Gillicks, Tony Larussas, and ... Geoff Bakers around baseball believe in the concept of a Paul Konerko? How many of them believe in the concept of a "lineup legitimizer", and how many of them say, "Ahhh, it doesn't make any difference. Hitting isn't contagious. It's you against the pitcher."
Lemme put it this way. Grant for one second the premise that lineup legitimizers ARE a factor in baseball. Now ask yourself where the 2010-12 Mariners have been with respect to this factor. The degree of their lack in this department is astounding. In terms of lineup legitimizing, their ERA is 8.25 recently; they're an expansion ballclub. So they've added a Jason Vargas to an 8.25 ERA pitching staff, have they? The first time the Seattle Mariners had a legitimate starting pitcher - Floyd Bannister? - it was kind of a big deal.
SSI is a big believer in Jesus Montero, and the fact that Kendrys Morales speaks his language (sort of) don't hurt none.
SSI is a big believer in the idea that a ringing RBI double can kick a Colby Lewis out of his rocking chair.
SSI is a big believer in the idea that if you blow off conventional ideas about batting orders, and just go with a bunch of WAR-efficient players like Endy Chavez and Casey Kotchman, that you're going to learn all about the concept of Critical Mass (and 513 runs a season).
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Is Kendrys Morales a lineup legitimizer? I've got my doubts. He's hurt a lot, he's kind of funky-looking, his work ethic is dubious, and Cuban isn't an easy language to understand. Further, he's a dead man walkin' as far as Safeco is concerned. He's very possibly gone in July, for Drew Smyly no doubt. :- )
K'Mo would look a lot better hitting 5 than 4; add a second 100-RBI man and now we very definitely do have a maypole for the kids to dance ribbons around. But give us six or seven April home runs, dude, and we'll call it square.
Should Ko K'Mo Just Hit Left?
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Excellent article today by Sully at LL. Now, there's a sentence that contains five trite observations in seven words. Dare you to top that, amigo.
The excellent article is followed by a weird spitting match in the threads, but ... we'll raise one eyebrow, lower the other, and walk by. Like when you walk by The Crypt downtown. In any case, the question is interesting, and they have had it in the Cuisinart over there at BJOL this month.
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=== Talking Points ===
Talk to ANY big leaguer about giving up his switch hitting, and the conversation will last one-point-five seconds. "It's too late," he shrugs.
So the question is moot. James, who (as an expert on the player pool containing every MLB player who ever lived...) does not like switch hitting, follows on by acknowledging "not having hit right against RHP's for years and years, it may not be a viable option to do it."
Nick Franklin, I think, is drawing very close to the point of no return. What a shame.
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No study has resolved the question for a person who didn't start off rooting for one answer or the other, I don't think. As you know, whether it's in medicine or baseball, you can cite studies that back up either side. The META-study situation is confusing to me (and to James).
I know one thing: it's not as simple as "what part of 'slider breaking into you' don't you understand?" Every question and issue known to mankind, every single one, is easy to solve if you refuse to look at any variable except for your single favorite variable. Supposing that bending over in half put your eyes closer to the ball? Would any other variables complicate the situation?
James has an interesting remark here: nobody hits with one hand. Both swings are two-handed. Think for a second.
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I don't think you could ever completely capture this issue, because you could never isolate the variables. What you'd need would be like 100x teenage sets of twins, half of whom gave up switch-hitting.
It doesn't cover it, just to ask "Do switch-hitters have larger-than-normal platoon differentials?" Because their entire baseball development arc has been morphed by the very fact that they hit switch.
But: James observes that in the 1970's and 1980's, platoon splits seemed very large for MLB switch-hitters, and they are generally much smaller now. As he says, "I don't know that this resolves the larger issue."
Right, because if Lance Berkman's career OPS is 1007 from the left side and 777 from the right side ... there's no way to know what he (OR ANY OTHER PLAYER) would have been in an alternate universe, had they never switch-hit a single time. Maybe Berkman would have been a 1116 OPS guy, like Teddy, if he'd just hit left. Or maybe his embarrassments against LHP's would have wrecked his career. How can you predict?
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Math hasn't solve this problem, and we've given you the experimental-design considerations that make it unlikely that math ever will solve the problem.
You're left with a thought experiment. Take the gorgeous lefty swings you've seen -- Ichiro, Junior, Olerud, those kind of guys -- and tell me that you can picture their SW careers as working out better. No chance. Imagine Junior if somebody had stapled a righty swing on to him at age 17.
People point out, "Mick was the only epic hitter who batted switch," and we go "one hitter in 25. That doesn't prove much." But the point there is if you have a Lou Gehrig swing, you don't want to mess with it. The great hitters didn't switch. That's why.
Switch-hitting might be a good idea for some teenagers -- but for guys with swings like Ichiro, Junior, and Nick Franklin? You'd have to have rocks in your head.
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James states his conviction against switch-hitting thusly:
On switch hitting... You have written that on the seventies somebody thought that young speedsters would take advantage of switch hitting, thus a lot of young players became switch hitters. You thought that to be one of the worst ideas in the history of coaching and mentioned U. L. Washington, as example of a good right handed hitter but a poor left handed hitter. However, there are some hitters who are sort of natural switch hitters, aren't there? Tony Fernandez might be one of the SH with more evened stats: as a RHH against LHP: .286/.343/.391 in BA/OBP/SLG; as a LHH against RHP: .289/.349/.402. Do you know about a switch hitter with so evened stats?
Asked by: jbdominicano
Answered: 12/15/2012
MANY of the switch hitters now have even stats. In the 60s. .. .after Maury Wills. .. a lot of guys started switch hitting when they were 19, 20 years old. Wills became a switch hitter in the minor leagues, to take advantage of his speed. It worked for him, so for a while, any kid who could run, they tried to make him a switch hitter. Mike Schmidt was a switch hitter in college. A lot of them. ..80% of them, I'd say, couldn't hit worth a [nickel] left-handed. Schmidt was smart enough to give it up after a couple of years and go back to hitting the way that was natural to him. But now, a lot of kids start switch-hitting at age 5, and most of the switch hitters today are true switch hitters. About the same one way as the other.
Giving us a compass bearing here: has the player in question been swinging the bat naturally from both sides, since he was a toddler?
I don't know what the case is with Morales; he's going to switch-hit for the rest of his life, and he had a good year in 2012 batting righty, so maybe he was a toddler hitting from both side.
I dunno about Morales or Smoak. I do know that switch-hitting was plastered on to Nick Franklin in high school, in a cowardly attempt to keep him from being embarrassed by 84 MPH fastballs.
It probably ain't too late for Franklin right now. But in two months, it probably will be.
We can FINALLY stop talking about the Mayan Apocalypse!
I have been following this story of the Mayan Apocalypse for years. For so long, in fact, that I don't remember where I first heard about it or when. I know that I was well aware of it before the movie 2012 was released in 2009, so we're talking about at least four years of hearing people blather on about it.